Michael Burry’s Warning, AI Math Reality, and the Hollowing Out of “Core”

Lead-Lag Live

In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Seth Cogswell, Managing Partner at Running Oak Capital, to break down Michael Burry’s warnings about depreciation manipulation, inflated AI earnings, and the concentration risk dominating today’s market.

From the speed of chip innovation to the widening gap between revenue and AI CapEx, Cogswell explains why valuations at the top of the S&P 500 may be far more stretched than investors realize — and why diversified, valuation-discipline strategies could be the antidote to extreme concentration.

In this episode:
– Why extending depreciation cycles may be inflating mega-cap earnings
– How today’s top 10 S&P names are valued above the peak of the tech bubble
– What investors misunderstand about investing in AI
– Why Running Oak has reduced tech exposure despite an AI revolution
– How passive flows have hollowed out the core of the U.S. equity market

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#RunningOak #Markets #TechValuations #AIBubble #PassiveInvesting #RiskManagement #Equities #Investing

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Chapters

1. Valuations And Concentration Risk (00:00:00)

2. Burry’s Depreciation Warning (00:03:01)

3. Faster Chip Cycles Vs Longer Lifespans (00:05:35)

4. What If Earnings Are Overstated (00:09:05)

5. Diversifying Beyond Megacap Tech (00:12:35)

6. AI Capex Reality Check (00:15:45)

7. Who Actually Benefits From AI (00:19:35)

8. The Hollowing Out Of Core (00:23:05)