H2AB8 in LTS: Residual Emissions WTF

Let Me Sum Up

Our starter is the Strategic Plan of the revived State Electricity Commission of Victoria. What are they up to? Much more than we expected! Large scale clean energy investment, taking on existing contracts for difference, getting into electrification, skills, and governance! No really, that last one might be the most controversial. Overall it’s very interesting and pretty positive, despite Tennant’s xenomorphic metaphors!

Our main paper

Residual emissions are the stuff that requires the Net in Net Zero - the emissions that can’t be (or, at least, aren’t) eliminated and have to be balanced by removals of carbon from the atmosphere through biological and/or engineered processes. Previously we covered a report on the scope of potential removals and one on the issues involved in Australian removals specifically. Now we consider a paper on how big residual emissions may be, based on the currently available Long Term Strategies submitted under the Paris Agreement: Why residual emissions matter right now - by Buck, Carton, Lund and Markusson.

The authors tot up 51 published national strategies, including Australia’s very own late-2021 contribution (a rather more elaborate successor is now being developed). They find a rather high level of residuals; little specificity or consistency around their definition or presentation; and more residuals than the same nations’ land sectors are expected to be able to soak up. At best, a work in progress!

One more things

Tennant’s One More Thing is a speech on energy and net zero industry by the Federal Treasurer that foreshadows a big, but not just spendy, Superpower push in the 2024-25 Budget.

Alison’s One More Thing is a fascinating transcript of a discussion on how the world navigates energy security, economic prosperity, and geopolitics through the period of cross-over between the decline of fossil fuels and the growth of renewables.Who are the winners and the losers are going to be? What are the prospects for various types of mineral-exporting countries? How does a world with terminally declining oil demand look?

Luke’s One More Thing is an epic takedown of Integrated Assessment Models for a lay audience “When Idiot Savants do Climate Economics”.

And Alison’s one more one more thing is: this is the last episode of her initial LMSU run! Frankie’s Podcast Mat Leave is coming to an end. But Alison will return when the stars are right (or the Holiday Movie Special looms)...

Send all your residual paper suggestions and thoughts (after eliminating all the bad ones) to [e-mail], xeet ‘em at @LukeMenzel, @TennantReed, @alison_reeve and @FrankieMuskovic, or blu ‘em at @lukemenzel.bsky.social @tennantreed.bsky.social and @reevealison.bsky.social.