The Great Inflation/Deflation Debate: What's An ETF Investor To Do?

Let's Talk ETFs

With the Fed's balance sheet expanding at an unprecedented rate, inflation concerns have made a comeback among some market watchers on both Wall Street and Main Street. While the monetary supply has increased drastically since the onset of the COVID-19 induced economic crisis, the velocity of money has actually fallen during this period. So what will prevail once the pandemic dust settles - a deflationary or inflationary environment? And how should ETF investors be positioning in the meantime?
Macro specialist Eric Basmajian (EPB Macro Research) rejoins Let's Talk ETFs and delivers a master class in current monetary policy dynamics - and how investors can stay one step ahead of the curve.
Show Notes
4:30 - Eric's personal COVID-19 story
8:00 - Stock vs. Bonds (SHY): A tale of two markets - Which is right?
13:30 - The current environment is a deflationary one - here's why
21:30 - Is the US just a generation behind Japan and Europe when it comes to monetary policy and its likely affect on underlying growth?
29:30 - Productive vs. Unproductive debt: Prospects for future growth (KRE) (XLF)
39:30 - What is the theoretical case for inflation once the dust from COVID-19 settles in a few years?
45:15 - What would be the likely outcome if an emerging economy's central bank followed the same playbook as the Fed?
48:00 - Positioning portfolios in the current environment (SPY), (PDBC), (TLT), (IEI), (SHV), (VXUS)
1:00:00 - Would you consider a short position in something like (XLE) or (XOP) given the potential economic downside that still exists in the energy sector?
1:08:30 - Are you currently over- or under-weight gold? (GLD)
1:14:45 - How about gold miners? (GDX)
1:17:00 - How do you make sense of the extreme bullish stock market action of the last month or so? (QQQ) (DIA) (IVV) (VOO)
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