Economists' Group Says Recession Forecasts Are Skyrocketing Money Life With Chuck Jaffe podcast

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It's a tale of two forecasts on today's edition of Money Life, as two experts come to very different conclusions of how 2025 will play out. In The Big Interview, Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy for the Wells Fargo Investment Institute says he expects the market to drop "5 to 10 percent easily" as tariffs, accompanying inflation and a slowing economy take hold during the third quarter and stick around for at least six months. Christopher notes that surprises could push the market down even further, back to or past April lows, but he noted that he'd be buying there, because he believes the United States was oversold early this year and will represent a particularly good value once it digests the expected downturn. In the Talking Technicals interview, however, Matt Fox, president of Ithaca Wealth Management , sets a 7000 target for the Standard & Poor's 500, up about 20 percent from current levels in the next 12 months. Fox says the sell-off in April did a lot of the "technical damage" necessary to set up a rally, and has us now at a point where "the path of least resistance is higher." Fox's forecast, however, also is based on solid fundamentals, which he believes can overcome the current headline risks that are dominating the landscape now. Plus Drake Shadwell discusses the latest research from Clever Real Estate showing the current trends on how long houses are staying on the market and what that means for the strength or weakness of the economy.…

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Northwestern Mutual's Schutte: Markets won't be 'straight up and to the right' 57:46

1 day ago57:46

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Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. , says that "Asset classes don't die, they just go to sleep for awhile," and they wake up when there are changes to the macroeconomic backdrop. He says that domestic strategies about trade, tariffs and global defense represent that background change, which is why he's recommending diversification, and considering commodities, international stocks and more. Schutte says he's expecting rate cuts late in the year and thinks the economy can avoid recession, but not a slowdown. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, finishes the firm's three-week look at troubling dividend trends, this week focusing on "dividend traps," companies where the current price is so high that a big decline would mean that the dividend isn't worth sticking around for. Previously, New Constructs featured "fake dividend stocks" and "false dividend stocks" in The Danger Zone. Plus economist Brian Lewandowski of the University of Colorado Boulder looks at the June 2025 Outlook Survey from the National Association for Business Economics, out today, which showed that economists expect sluggish economic growth and persistent, higher inflation into 2026; on average, the economists felt those conditions were not likely to create a recession.…

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LPL's Turnquist: 'You want to be buying dips and not selling rips right now' 1:01:03

5 days ago1:01:03

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Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial says he expects the market has enough momentum to break through to new record highs, and soon. Led by tech stocks, Turnquist expects the move off the April lows to continue, though he acknowledges that the macro backdrop "is extremely messy." If the market can overcome trade uncertainties, Turnquist says that when new highs are achieved three months apart, it is typically a good sign that a volatile market can continue overcome bad news and continue upward trends. The NAVigator segment features an interviewed taped in New York at the Active Investment Company Alliance BDC Forum with Tonnie Wybensinger, head of government relations for the Small Business Investors Association , an industry advocacy group who discusses current legislation that would give BDC investors a tax break and how legislation on esoteric subjects like business-development companies gets passed. Natalie Iannello, discusses a Howdy.com survey which showed that the average American now believes they need $105,000 a year to live comfortably , which is a problem when you consider that other research shows the average American salary at about $66,000. Plus, it's Chuck birthday, and he shares a birthday wish for his financial situation, and yours.…

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Oppenheimer's Penn is watching how credit losses weigh on BDCs 54:01

6 days ago54:01

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Mitchel Penn, managing director at Oppenheimer & Co. — interviewed at the Active Investment Company Alliance BDC Forum in New York on Wednesday — says that credit losses for business development companies during the first quarter of 2025 were more than double the level they have been at for the last few years. He says some of that increase could be attributed to the market's reaction to government policies, but that it also could be that interest rates have stayed higher for so long now that they are starting to create credit-quality issues. He said BDCs can still deliver returns in the range of 9% moving forward, though he warned that an increasing number of business-development companies may struggle to earn their dividends, making it important for investors to be avoid simply chasing a high yield. Also from the BDC Forum, Bob Marcotte, president at Gladstone Capital Corp. , discussed how government policies are encouraging business investment and capital expenditures which should create outstanding conditions for private credit, and therefore BDCs, to shine. Plus, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi , checks in with a short-duration Treasury fund that uses options to goose its yield as his ETF of the Week, and Chuck discusses the growing threat to investors and the economy from breakdowns and cuts impacting the way the country's economic statistics are tracked and maintained.…

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Merrill's Quinlan: Market will still hit '25 targets while avoiding recession 1:00:40

7 days ago1:00:40

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Joe Quinlan, head of CIO market strategy for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank , says the market "got wrong-footed coming into January," expecting a pro-business administration but stumbling instead due to the tariffs, but he says that as the economy starts to get to the other side and have some clarity, he still sees the Standard & Poor's 500 hitting the same goals his team set for it at the beginning of the year at 6,600. While he would like to see the market make and hold new highs to prove that the rebound from April lows can hold, he says that there will not be a recession this year or next without some man-made event like the Federal Reserve making a mistake by moving rates too much or too soon. While Quinlan is confident that there won't be a recession, most Americans disagree; Emily Fanous discusses a survey done for Howdy.com which showed that more than half of Americans think a recession is in the offing — within the next year — and that many are starting to change financial habits to prepare for that downturn now. Plus, veteran international fund manager Bernie Horn of Polaris Global Value talks stocks in the Market Call.…

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AAII's Rotblut on what investors are saying and doing with their money now 1:01:55

8 days ago1:01:55

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Charles Rotblut, vice president for the American Association of Individual Investors — the keeper of the group's sentiment and asset-allocation surveys — discusses how investors are becoming increasingly neutral in their sentiment but increasingly aggressive in their investment plans. Neutral sentiment — the expectation that the market will remain flat over the next six months — has been on the rise, as Americans feel better about the market without necessarily being optimistic; meanwhile, their asset allocations are taking on more stocks. Mostly, however, Rotblut notes that most investors should keep their emotions in check and let the headlines play out, mostly riding out the storm with a long-term investment plan in place. Veteran investment adviser Stephen Akin, founder of Akin Investments , mixes technical analysis with fundamental stock details in the Money Life Market Call, and Chuck answers a listener's question about retirement-savings basics, which tax-advantaged accounts to use and how to prioritize your savings.…

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Veteran manager says bond market sees no recession, few rate cuts, controlled inflation 59:12

9 days ago59:12

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Dan Carter, senior portfolio manager at Fort Washington Investment Advisors , says that the bond market "is pricing in a very benign outcome for everything that has been going on and all of the risks that are out there," and the stock market mostly seems to be agreeing with that assessment. While Carter's forecast calls for slow growth, he thinks the chances are that it stops short of a recession, and that any downturn is likely to be short-lived as the market and economy digest the headlines and move on. Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs , puts "fake dividend stocks" in The Danger Zone, building on the idea of "false dividend stocks" that David Trainer, the company's president, highlighted a week ago. Pamela Ladd discusses an American Institute of CPAs survey which found that women are markedly more concerned than men about the deterioration of their financial situation in the last 12 months , and Chuck goes off the news on how the Labor Department recently changed its guidance concerning cryptocurrencies in retirement plans, and whether that will result in more unsophisticated investors loading up their 401k plans with Bitcoin.…

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Veteran strategist says market needs a breakout to prove this is no bear-market rally 59:31

12 days ago59:31

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Technical analyst Willie Delwiche, the founder of Hi Mount Research , says that "New highs are the most bullish thing that stocks can do," and he says investors need to see a return to record-high levels for proof that the current rebound is more than just a bear-market rally. He expects the market to be held hostage by headlines and range-bound — bouncing between the market's February peak and the April post-tariff-announcement lows — until there is some clarity on tariffs, interest rates and more. He expects large-cap growth stocks to keep leading the way domestically, and says that the international rally has room to continue because money has been rotating away from U.S. assets toward more global positions. Michael Grant, co-chief investment officer at Calamos Investments — co-manager of the Calamos Long/Short Equity & Dynamic Income Trust — says that current market conditions have made it that bonds are no longer a natural working hedge for market downturns, with downside risk that can be worse than what stocks are facing. Eric Lutton, co-chief investment officer at Sound Income Strategies — manager of the Sound Enhanced Fixed Income ETF — talks business-development companies, real estate investment trusts and more in the Market Call.…

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Sanjac Alpha's Wells says investors need to reduce their expectations 1:01:24

13 days ago1:01:24

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Andy Wells, chief investment officer at Sanjac Alpha , says that investors might want to put a collar on their enthusiasm, whether that involves a hunger for interest rate cuts or double-digit stock market returns. In a wide-ranging Big Interview, he says that he doesn't expect the Federal Reserve to make rate cuts, notes that he thinks international stocks have profited from turmoil but are less promising for the future, and says that the domestic market — helped by a strong economy — should be able to hold marginal, single-digit gains for this year and have small gains moving forward for the next few years. Meanwhile, he says investors should lean into the money they can earn from bonds, while being cautious about long-duration paper. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi , leans into the strong international markets, picking an actively-managed Fidelity fund as his ETF of the Week. Plus Ted Rossman discusses a BankRate survey showing Americans' increasing disdain for the tipping culture and how they are fighting back against what they perceive as increased pressure to leave tips, and Chuck answers a listener's question about picking a spot bitcoin ETF.…

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Bear-fund manager expects a 'wide, sloppy range-bound market' for years 56:30

14 days ago56:30

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Veteran market-timer Brad Lamensdorf, manager of the Ranger Equity Bear ETF and of a new market-neutral hedge fund, says that the market's outsized gain of the last few years has set it up for a long period of sideways and heavy volatility while high valuations settle into something more reasonable. He's not calling for a recession — and he thinks there will be plenty of opportunities for savvy stock-picking — but he says the market will be much less comfortable for investors than it has been over the last few years. Jordan Rizzuto, managing partner at GammaRoad Capital Partners — which assesses market and economic strength to determine broad asset allocations — explains how the firm came into 2025 with all of its measures being bullish, only to see those indicators start to turn so that by mid-March its key measures were negative; that had only happened four times before, each pre-saging significant market downturns. After the stock market recouped the tariff tantrum losses, one measure has turned positive, and Rizzuto notes that times of mixed indicators are when the changes are most tenuous. As a result, Rizzuto says current conditions should make investors cautious and defensive as they watch current economic and market headlines play out. Plus Chuck goes off the news to discuss the "Credit Card Competition Act," which has been tucked into some other legislation winding through Washington, and which could dramatically impact the future availability of loyalty and cash-back programs.…

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Regions' McKnight: Domestic markets will outperform the rest of the year 58:57

15 days ago58:57

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Alan McKnight, chief investment officer at Regions Asset Management , says that there is opportunity for investors to "eek out a mid-single-digit type of return this year," provided that they can stomach high levels of volatility along the way. Specifically, McKnight says that he expects domestic stock markets to be the leader in the second half of the year, most notably in comparison to international developed markets, which have been a bright spot thus far in 2025. McKnight expects the performance of foreign stocks to fade, while mid-cap domestic stocks pick up sharply. McKnight also expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates two or three times late in the year, noting that "there's really not a need to initiate more cuts right now," which will make the move more effective as the economy slows while it digests trade policies and more. Kathy Kristof, founder and editor at SideHusl.com , discusses how people can get the most from side jobs, noting that they can be a gateway to second careers, semi-retirement life changes or a means to achieving a specific financial goal, but how the best way to achieve those ends involves some detailed advance planning and thought on how to make the most of your skills and assets. Plus, the Weird Financial News returns, and digs into some of the financial issues behind a few recent news stories where the money angle was largely ignored by the mainstream media.…

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Economist says new tariff uncertainty builds confidence that recession is avoidable 57:50

16 days ago57:50

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Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management , says that for all of the concerns that tariffs have created for the economy, the situation playing out in the courts now has put a cap on how much can be done that reduces the chance of recession. Jacobsen says that the bond market is signalling potential concerns now while the stock market is suggesting that "everything is fine," and he notes that both messages can be correct amid uncertainty around inflation, government debt levels and more. Jacobsen also discusses the sentiment numbers, which suggest that consumers are miserable, but he says that Americans aren't yet reflecting that attitude with their spending habits. Yetin a Survey Said interview to open the show, Chip Lupo analyzes the latest WalletHub Economic Index , which showed that consumer optimism is plummeting and that it is starting to impact those spending decisions. Plus David Trainer, president at New Constructs , introduces the concept of "fake dividend stocks" in the Danger Zone this week, noting that a popular real estate trust focused on data centers has a decent dividend but is so overpriced that investors will wind up losing more money holding the stock than they earn from the dividends that the stock pays out. He says this is part of a trend — which he plans to cover in the Danger Zone — of "false dividends, fake dividends and dividend traps."…

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Veteran strategist says market will set new records soon, and hold them for years 59:21

19 days ago59:21

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Jim Thorne, economist and chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus Private Wealth , says the target he was setting for the stock market entering 2025 holds, and that means 7,000 on the Standard & Poor's 500 "is doable this year, and I think we will rally nicely into the mid-term elections." Thorne believes the economy can avoid a recession, which will slowly help to turn the soft data as consumers and investors regain confidence, which — coupled with interest rate cuts which he says are overdue — will keep the United States markets not only moving up but the best place to invest in the world. John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors , looks at two mainstream media articles that named "the best closed-end funds" and digs into the data to compare those picks to his own — made on previous appearances on The NAVigator — to see how well the one-size-fits-all advice actually suits investors. It's a lesson in evaluating funds, but also on sizing up the sources of investment recommendations. Plus, Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at BankRate.com discusses the site’s latest survey on home affordability and homeowner regrets , which not only showed that Americans are struggling in many cases to buy homes, but they often regret how much they paid and the costs of maintenance once they get one.…

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Leader Capital's Lekas: 'I'm just not buying into the gloom and doom' 57:37

20 days ago57:37

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John Lekas, president and senior portfolio manager at Leader Capital Corp. , says that focusing on the numbers rather than the headlines shows a market that has the potential to gain 5 to 10 percent before year's end, with solid gains in the bond market as well, particularly in collateralized mortgage obligations. Lekas says he's not worried about inflation remaining sticky because stocks often perform well during inflationary times; he thinks the dollar will get 10 percent weaker over the course of the year — and notes that the dollar is his primary worry — but he notes that the dollar's change is not convincing him to invest internationally. He's still sold on the domestic market, and says the currency volatility makes the international picture murkier and less attractive. Kelley Wright, editor at Investment Quality Trends , discusses value stocks for the long haul in the Market Call, and Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi , leans into the changing market conditions by picking an active thematic rotation fund for his ETF of the Week.…

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Economist Kotlikoff: Recession is coming, cut back hard on the equities 1:02:25

21 days ago1:02:25