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Economists' group says recession forecasts are skyrocketing
Manage episode 477367724 series 30363
Rebecca Rockey, deputy chief economist and global head of forecasting at Cushman & Wakefield — an analyst on the outlook survey committee for the National Association for Business Economics — discusses the group's recent "flash survey" of economists which found that since tariff policies were announced on "Liberation Day," more than one-third of economists now believe the next recession is likely to start this year. Another half of the respondents have also raised their chances for a significant economic downturn. Rockey says that media forecasts for economic growth show significant downgrades since the tariff announcements, and notes that it appears this sentiment shift is the swiftest she has seen in any two-week period of time, including in times like Covid and other crises. Bob Powell, editor at Retirement Daily, talks about how seniors and pre-retirees should be considering the headlines on tariff and other government policies when it comes to spending, saving, retirement planning, Social Security, Medicare and more. Plus, Chuck answers three questions from listeners, discussing sequence-of-return versus market risk, how and why tariffs impact bond markets and his general feelings about tariffs.
2129 episodes
Manage episode 477367724 series 30363
Rebecca Rockey, deputy chief economist and global head of forecasting at Cushman & Wakefield — an analyst on the outlook survey committee for the National Association for Business Economics — discusses the group's recent "flash survey" of economists which found that since tariff policies were announced on "Liberation Day," more than one-third of economists now believe the next recession is likely to start this year. Another half of the respondents have also raised their chances for a significant economic downturn. Rockey says that media forecasts for economic growth show significant downgrades since the tariff announcements, and notes that it appears this sentiment shift is the swiftest she has seen in any two-week period of time, including in times like Covid and other crises. Bob Powell, editor at Retirement Daily, talks about how seniors and pre-retirees should be considering the headlines on tariff and other government policies when it comes to spending, saving, retirement planning, Social Security, Medicare and more. Plus, Chuck answers three questions from listeners, discussing sequence-of-return versus market risk, how and why tariffs impact bond markets and his general feelings about tariffs.
2129 episodes
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1 Economist says new tariff uncertainty builds confidence that recession is avoidable 57:50

1 Veteran strategist says market will set new records soon, and hold them for years 59:21

1 Leader Capital's Lekas: 'I'm just not buying into the gloom and doom' 57:37

1 Economist Kotlikoff: Recession is coming, cut back hard on the equities 1:02:25

1 Tocqueville's Petrides: Amid murky market situation, buy a little of everything 58:24

1 Natixis' Janasiewicz: It's a range-bound market, and we're near the top 59:51

1 BKR's Sosnick: The market's climbing a mountain of worry, and could fall off 1:00:12

1 Northlight's Zaccarelli: 'Tectonic shifts' are happening, but don't overreact 1:00:42

1 Cerity's Mills: Don't discount the resilience of markets 59:30

1 3Edge's Folts: Investors are in 'a very tough, tough spot' right now 1:02:36

1 Ocean Park's St. Aubin: In tariff 'No-Man's Land,' there are reasons for optimism 58:49

1 Seafarer's Foster: Emerging markets odds 'are tilted in your favor' now 57:14

1 State Street's gold strategist says gold has a new floor and a higher ceiling 57:18

1 BNY's Reinhart preaches caution, patience against continuing uncertainty 59:07

1 Wealth Consulting Group's Leger makes a case for S&P 6500 as tariffs ease 59:53
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