Navigating Volatility in the Interest Rate Markets with Merganser Capital Management's Andy Smock

Orion's The Weighing Machine

Current economic conditions, marked by fluctuating interest rates and potential recessions, have sparked many investors to re-evaluate their investment strategies. By diligently monitoring trends and strategically adjusting asset allocations, investors can position themselves to not only weather the challenges but also capitalize on opportunities that arise from the ups and downs of the interest rate market.

In this episode, Rusty and Robyn talk with Andy Smock, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Principal at Merganser Capital Management. Andy joined Merganser in 2003. Earlier in his career, he focused on researching and trading both residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities. In his current role, Andy oversees the company's investment team and is a portfolio manager for their longer-duration strategies.

With extensive experience in the fixed-income market, Andy talks to Rusty and Robyn about fixed income and fluctuations in the interest rate market. He discusses the reasons behind the large swings in interest rates and the trends within fixed income, including shifting demands from investors. Andy also shares his macro perspective on inflation and the potential for a recession and provides insights on the status of regional banks and the commercial real estate market.

Key Takeaways

• [02:32] - Andy's background and work at Merganser Capital Management.
• [03:27] - The reasons behind the large swings in interest rates.
• [05:22] - Strategic allocation shifts in response to interest rate movement.
• [06:54] - Notable trends in fixed income.
• [08:20] - What Andy sees as demands from investors.
• [09:57] - Andy's view on inflation.
• [12:05] - The possibility of a recession.
• [14:12] - The reasons for a bank crisis.
• [15:38] - The challenges facing commercial real estate.
• [18:46] - How Andy maintains his mental and physical energy to perform at a high level.
• [20:36] - The people Andy is professionally thankful for.
• [23:16] - Andy's recommendations for content.

Quotes

[05:02] - "The drivers [large swing of interest rates] have been all over the place. You can really point to economic data on certain days or geopolitical." ~ Andy Smock

[10:04] - "Inflation is definitely coming down. Every way I look at the data, it's clearly dropping from really disturbingly high levels." ~ Andy Smock

[11:35] - "Inflation is coming down. And for it to meaningfully come down and quickly come down to target, we're going to need to see weakness in the consumer much more than we have." ~ Andy Smock

Links

• Andy Smock on LinkedIn
• Merganser Capital Management
• Close to Me by The Cure
• Indiana University
• From Strength to Strength by Arthur Brooks
• A Bird's-Eye View of the Bond Market Podcast

Connect with Us

• Meet Rusty Vanneman, Orion's Chief Investment Officer
• Check Out All of Orion's Podcasts
• Power Your Growth with Orion

3225-OPS-12/1/2023