Is This “Retire on $42/month” Article Clickbait?

Plan With The Tax Man

Imagine retiring comfortably on just $42 per month—sounds too good to be true, right? Well, it’s exactly the assertion you might have seen in the headline of a recent article online. So today, we’ll dive into the sensational claim and uncover what it really takes to build your retirement nest egg.

Article

https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/buying-stocks/articles/you-can-retire-on-4167-a-month-if-you-do-these-2-things/

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Transcript:

Marc Killian:

Retire on $42 a month. Let's talk about that this week here on the podcast. This is Plan With The Tax Man with Tony Mauro. Is the article clickbait or is it possible? Let's get into it.

Marc Killian:

Hey everybody, welcome to the podcast. Thanks for hanging out with Tony Mauro and myself as we talk investing, finance and retirement. And we're going to talk about this interesting article that we found here that we want to run through and just kind of see if this stuff, is this kind of stuff just clickbait? Probably is. Or is it something that is worthwhile for people to seriously think about? So we're going to get into that chat this week here with Tony, and we'll share links to the article so you guys can check it out for yourself. And I think that realistically, Tony, this thing probably is clickbait. So I want to jump right forward into the conversation because one of the big things is talking about advisors all across the country for years have been saying, "Hey, you got to put at least 10% away in order to save for retirement."

Now, that new number has changed to maybe 15%. And one of the things talks about how it's really difficult for... I mean, it's easy to do if you have a long timeline to retire on $42 a month, but if you don't have that timeline and you haven't started early, makes this really difficult to pull off. Don't kind of walk yourself down that line of, well, I just won't do anything because I'm never going to get there anyway. Something's better than nothing at any age. Would you agree from your years of experience or am I crazy?

Tony Mauro:

Nope. I would agree a hundred percent. And when you, even in your scenario, 10 years or no, you said 17 years-

Marc Killian:

17, yeah.

Tony Mauro:

And you can get to 10% if you can do that, you're going to have a decent size nest egg. Now, it may not coincide with the goals you thought you wanted, but maybe instead of just living off the income, well, you had to spend some principle. Or maybe you need to work a little bit in retirement, but at least you know, but you'd definitely be so much better off than if you didn't do anything that it's never really too late to start.

Marc Killian:

All right, so let's kind of look at some more of these pieces here, Tony. The article mentions a 10% average annual return from the stock market on investments. All right. How realistic is this expectation over a long period? I mean, any kind of data you want to share with us over that 10% IED. It sounds great. How feasible is it?

Tony Mauro:

I would say I tried to use a little lower percentage. I mean, if you look back all the way back to the beginning of the stock market or the S&P 500, you can kind of get around that, but I think there's much more to it than that. There's tax efficiency, there's some risk factors. Maybe you're not a real risk-taker. So maybe realistically, I always tell them maybe we should start out with a little bit lower projection for that. That way if we end up at 10% over long-term, we are even better off. But let's not assume that. So I think that's a little, I don't want to say far-fetched because it is probably a round that. But again, not everybody wants to take those types of risks. So I don't like to go with that because then once you tell people that, boy, when it doesn't happen every year, they're upset. That's not the purpose.

Marc Killian:

They throw this AI stuff at us left and right all the time now. So every time you do something, you're going to get some information from it. So take that with a grain of salt. But just kind of quickly to follow up on your information there, Tony, since the S&P 500's average annual return has been around 10.5% since its inception in 1957, a hundred years, a hundred-year average, 10.6 average yearly return, or 7.4 when adjusted for inflation. Now, so I wanted to touch on that because okay, you could sit there and say, "Okay, maybe realistically over 50 years of working towards retirement, I should be averaging 10%."

But then you got to factor in inflation, which is okay, according to this, it's about 7% you're now bringing in. Then you got to start thinking about things like sequence of returns risk, right? So I want you to explain that a little bit to folks, Tony, if you would, because if you retired in 2001, guess what? You went through the lost decade where the market didn't return anything. So there's 10 years out of this 40 or 50 year plan you had that were just shot to hell.

Tony Mauro:

Exactly. So I think when it, depending on, again, when you start, I think it's naive to just use that overall 10% number in projections. And another thing stepping back to it is that's assuming A, that you're in the S&P 500, maybe an ETF or something. But let's say that you get to little skittish and you decide to get out of the market five or 10 times or 20 times over 30 years, the best days, and you miss those, what that does to returns.

And so our job is to try to, wherever our clients are at, is to keep them focused on the end goal and not let them do that. But there's a lot to it. Then you jump ahead to inflation, which a lot of clients don't ever take into consideration. We always do because we're saying, it's what you get to keep, what we're shooting for and inflation we have no control over. And that's going to average what it has. And so that's why we're trying to get a little bit better returns rather than just leaving money in a cash account or something. Because inflation is just going to erode that future value of that so badly that your nest egg's not going to be anywhere near what it would be if we can get decent returns over the long haul.

Marc Killian:

Very true, very true. So what is sequence of returns risk that I mentioned for folks who are not familiar with that?

Tony Mauro:

The sequence of returns risk, you mean talking about when they pull money out or?

Marc Killian:

Yeah, so like if you were putting money in your portfolio, but depending on when you retire, what the economy's doing, what it can do to you, right, what can happen?

Tony Mauro:

Oh, you're talking about that part.

Marc Killian:

Yeah.

Tony Mauro:

Yes. Yeah. Well, it is just like you're talking about the decade of lost returns and you started saving for retirement, say in 2000, you went 10 years and didn't have any returns, versus a guy who started saving, I don't know, say 20 years earlier. Yeah, he's had the same decade of lost returns, but he's already well ahead of you even if you chose the same investments just because of the timing and the sequencing of returns. I mean, I went through it. I continue to invest my own money. And boy, I remember it, that 10 years I was always complaining to my wife is, "Boy, these investments, they're just not growing. I mean, we've lost 10 years now." In theory we did, but I kept investing dollar cost averaging just like we tell our clients to do. And so now the last 15 years, boy, I've seen some nice rewards for that-

Marc Killian:

Okay, gotcha.

Tony Mauro:

... by keeping in the market, keeping investing because it wasn't good. So there's all of that that comes into play as well, which is why I like to use a lower average even going in because it depends on when you start. If somebody's starting today, well, we're kind of at market highs. They could come in and say, "Well, geez, the market's too high." I think it's going down over the next three years. It's been everything else that's going on in the world into it. And yeah, maybe they're right, maybe they're not. But I tell them, you got to get started. Forget about all that. The important key is to get going. And if we have a downturn, then you'll end up rewarded the next upturn.

Marc Killian:

Yeah. And so you kind of think about it, you've probably seen things like this folks, these breakdowns on this where you have two different people, person A and person B. They both have a million dollars on retirement. They plan on pulling 45,000 out a year or 40,000 out a year, 4%, whatever you want to call it, easy math. And the first person has positive returns in the first three or four years of retirement. The market is up those three or four years, but then they experience a couple of downturns a little later. It has a dramatic effect versus this person B, who's first three or four years of retirement, the market's down every year because it winds up. That's what really starts to wind up hurting. And it really changes the longevity of your plan, right, Tony? That's where you guys have to run stress tests in various scenarios.

Okay, what happens if we retire on an up market? What happens if we retire on down market? How long does this nest egg last? And then that way you're able to speculate out and then maybe make some adjustments or have plans in line for such events, right? Because you can't control what the market's going to do, but here's the projecting that we think is going to happen should you retire with this, this, or this. And then that comes back to taking money from what accounts and when, right? Maybe that's changing when social security gets turned on. Again, pulling one lever and a bunch of other ones get impacted.

Tony Mauro:

The stress testing, while that sounds like a bad word, it's actually a lot of fun.

Marc Killian:

Yeah. It's not stress testing your heart.

Tony Mauro:

Yeah, it's not going to kill you. But the computers make it very easy now to run scenarios in the matter of seconds. And really what it spits out, a long story short is the percentage of time, or say for example, based on where we're at now, taking worst case scenarios, best case, how much money you want to take out. You've got to say, I'm just using an example, 90% chance of your money lasting you to 95.

Marc Killian:

Okay.

Tony Mauro:

And that's through thick and thin. And when people hear those percentages, they can resonate with that. They say, "Well, that's pretty good," versus, well, you only got a 40% chance. They're like, oh boy, we got to do something different. But I don't like to get people lost in all the calculations. I like to just go with it based on here. This is the percent that we think. And if that's above 85%, you're in good shape and you can feel pretty good about what you're going to do.

Marc Killian:

Okay. Well, so overall, and again, we'll share links to this article. We kind of got a little bit sidetracked, but I think the idea still being fairly sound and having a chat about this, do you think articles like this, Tony, ultimately help or hurt folks thinking about retirement, right? Is it an oversimplification? Is it information overload? What do you think?

Tony Mauro:

I think it's information overload. I mean, they disguise the headline as simple. So that's pretty simple. But I think there's so much more to it that when you get down, like we just discussed it for what, 15 or so minutes and we just touched the surface, that there's a lot of information that has to go into it before you make a good decision. So I think it's probably a little too much. It does get the juices flowing about maybe asking some questions to your advisor, and you could have the same type of discussion that we just had and get yourself online or in line if you're not. But I think it's a little too much info trying to be simple. But obviously the goal of it is to probably market and to probably try to get the phones to ring or emails to be coming in.

Marc Killian:

Yeah, if it gets you, I think articles in general, in our current world that we live in with everything online all the time, that if it gets you motivated to take some action, I think that you can find a positive there. But I think if you just run with it without vetting the information with a proper resources, truly like a trained professional, then you can be hurting yourself and doing a disservice. So, hey, if it causes you to listen to this podcast because you saw this headline and then you then decided to call up Tony and say, "Hey, can I retire on saving $42 a month?" Then great. Because now, you've taken action. But just temper that with a grain of salt. So when Tony comes back and says, "Not if you just started saving $42 a month and you're 55 years old, no."

Tony Mauro:

Yeah, right.

Marc Killian:

I mean, yes, you can retire, but it's probably going to be more heavily on social security than you might've wanted. I think I use my mother often, Tony, on these conversations because she's retired solely on social security. She's 83 now, and is she surviving? Is she okay and comfortable? Yes. Is it the retirement she wanted? No. Right. She doesn't get to take trips or didn't as before. She's gotten to the point where her body's not letting her, but she didn't get to take the trips that she wanted to. She doesn't get to do some of the things that she wanted to, that she probably had plans or dreams for. But she is okay, right? She is surviving, she is comfortable, she is overall happy, but she also does require some help from her children. And I think most of us don't want to be there. She certainly doesn't. She tells me all the time, "This was not my plan." So that's the point of having a plan in my opinion. And I'm sure yours as well.

Tony Mauro:

I think so. That's the whole point of having a plan, is a story like that. And at least, like I say, I usually don't have much to say good about the government and taxes and everything, but they do have program and social security is one of them. And yes, it has problems and that's a whole another story, but at least it makes people comfortable and helps them along those lines. And otherwise, I mean, what other options would she have if she didn't have that? She maybe out in the streets or her family would really have to take care of her and have her move in maybe. But so yeah, it is those types of stories that you hear about. I got an aunt and uncle that are going down that same path. They're in their 70s. They had their own business, didn't really put a lot into the system for social security. So their social security benefit's very small. No savings. So they'll get by, but definitely not what they had thought a long time ago where they would be.

Marc Killian:

Not what you hoped for. Yeah, exactly. Well, all right folks, that's going to do it for us this week. So again, we'll post links in the show notes there so you can check out the article if you'd like as well. But I think at the end of the day, when we see salacious headlines or interesting things, hey again, if it gets the juices flow into what make you want to learn more or find out more about the situation for your unique needs, then great. But definitely vetted out and walk through that conversation with a qualified professional. Somebody like Tony, who again is 30 years experience in the industry. He's a CPA and a CFP and an EA and a great resource for you to tap into.

So he's in the Iowa area, but he's got clients all over. So if you're listening to the podcast and you're from someplace else, don't hesitate. Still reach out to them, go check him out online at your planningpros.com, that's your planning.pros.com. Tax Doctor Inc. is the name of the company. Lots of good tools, tips and services there. You can check out, you can get in contact with them, you can subscribe to the podcast, all that good stuff. Drop a line into the team, whatever you need. So go check them out at your planningpros.com. Tony, my friend, have yourself a great remainder of this month, which is just about over and I will catch you a little bit later.

Tony Mauro:

All right, we'll see you on the next episode.

Marc Killian:

We'll see you on the next episode of Plan With The Tax Man with Tony Mauro.

Speaker 7:

Securities offered through Avantax Investment Services SM, member FINRA, SIPC, investment advisory services offered through Avantax Advisory Services, insurance services offered through an Avantax affiliated insurance agency. Investment strategies discussed in this episode may not be suitable for all investors. Please consult with a financial professional.

Disclaimer: Securities offered through Avantax Investment ServicesSM. Member FINRA, S.I.P.C. Investment advisory services offered through Avantax Advisory Services. Insurance services offered through an Avantax affiliated insurance agency.