The Wire - August 7, 2024

S2 Underground

//The Wire//2100Z August 7, 2024//

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//BLUF: UKRAINE LAUNCHES OFFENSIVE INTO KURSK. RIOTS CONTINUE IN U.K. TENSIONS CONTINUE IN MIDDLE EAST AS AIRSPACE CLOSURES INDICATE POTENTIAL COMBAT ACTIONS.//

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-International Events-

Eastern Europe: Ukraine launched a comparatively significant offensive operation into the Kursk region of Russia, in what is the largest offensive operation conducted by Ukraine into Russia so far in this war. A salient has emerged as far northeast as the village of Leonidovo, as Ukrainian forces attempt to advance as close to Kursk as possible.

AC: This operation has zero chance of being anything other than a last-ditch offensive to strike at something rather than nothing. Only a few hundred soldiers took part in the operation, which despite arguably being Ukraine’s most significant offensive of the war, was really more of a small-scale raid and very unlikely to make much strategic difference in terms of ground taken. Ukraine probably hoped to catch the Russians napping, and cause some disruption and inconvenience at best. If that was the extremely low-bar set for this operation, it was certainly a success. The Russian response so far has been debatable. Right now Russian forces are concentrating on the region, and it is not clear as to if the Ukrainian advance on Kursk has slowed or halted yet. If Russian forces are slow to react, or otherwise take a page from the historical events of this exact region 80 years ago, Ukraine might make more gains than they expected for a one-off operation with little chance of success at the onset. In any case, this entire affair is not likely to matter much in the long term, but has resulted in exceptional embarrassment for Russia.

Far East: U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel has boycotted attending the Nagasaki anniversary remembrance ceremony upcoming on August 9th. The reason given for dropping out of the memorial ceremony is related to the mayor of Nagasaki not issuing an invitation to the Israeli Ambassador to the same event. The British Ambassador to Japan has likewise boycotted the event in solidarity. Nagasaki’s mayor has stated that the reason for not inviting Israel was not based on political considerations, and that Russian and Belarusian representation was also not invited to the memorial event. AC: Japan probably wanted to avoid political activists crashing the event and disrespecting the memorial services. However, this resulted in an international incident anyway.

United Kingdom: Riots continue alongside the persecution of peaceful dissent as the crackdown on speech reaches new heights. Rioters, peaceful demonstrators, and previously-unconcerned citizens alike have organized substantially over the past few days. Police surveillance operations have been specifically targeted by rioters as the U.K. substantially increases facial recognition efforts to identify demonstrators (or even peaceful protesters).

Middle East: Anticipation continues as before. Of note, some nations have issued NOTAMs or other aviation notices urging their national airlines to avoid Iranian airspace, or airspace throughout the region at large. AC: So far, there isn’t much overlap of these warnings to narrow down the time or day of the expected Iranian counterattack. Egyptian authorities have specified a three-hour window for airspace restrictions over Iran tonight, leading many to believe that the Egyptians may know something others do not. However, very few of these indicators are high confidence at this point; only time will tell what indicators proved to be useful in retrospect. At the moment, few indicators easily point to a specific day or time of impeding combat actions.

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Analyst Comments: The diplomatic spat involving the U.S. in Japan is a reminder of the levels to which the conflict in the Middle East is affecting other diplomatic tensions on