The Wire - June 13, 2024

S2 Underground

//The Wire//1400Z June 13, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: PEACE TALKS HESITANTLY CONTINUE IN MIDDLE EAST. CHINESE ACTIVITIES CONTINUE IN TAIWAN STRAIT.//

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-International Events-

Middle East: Peace talks again remain uncertain as Israel, Hamas, and the United States continue to work through the latest round of peace talks. Though an agreement has not been formally met at this time, all parties have responded positively to the latest US-led proposals. In the North, combat actions along the Israeli/Lebanese border continue to intensify on both sides.

In Iraq, a significant fire is burning at the oil refinery complex in Erbil. AC: Initial unconfirmed reports suggest the fire may have been caused by a successful attack by insurgents.

Far East: Chinese incursions in the Taiwan Strait continue. Overnight, 23 aircraft and 7 vessels were detected conducting operations in the vicinity of Taiwan. AC: Months ago this would have been out of the ordinary, but now that the baseline has shifted to normalize increasing numbers of aircraft incursions and naval operations this is a reminder of how a slow increase in forces over time can be operationally effective.

-HomeFront-

Washington: An incident at the FBI headquarters in Seattle prompted substantial police action following reports of an armed individual inside the building. The incident (possibly a mental health crisis) was resolved after some time without injury.

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Analyst Comments: A significant escalation to watch out for is the increase of Israeli combat actions in Lebanon. An increasingly likely scenario that most power-players are concerned with in the region is what a peace deal with Hamas might mean for Netanyahu, who likely seeks to do everything he can to save his government. Consequently, the question remains: If peace is achieved with Hamas, will Netanyahu shift the war to the north, continuing the fight with Hezbollah? Though the chance of this is uncertain, it remains a possibility. Especially considering that even the White House has openly and repeatedly accused Netanyahu of making poor tactical decisions so as to continue the war (and thus save his own political career). As such, if Israel decides to shift the fight to the north into Lebanon more directly, this would be yet another escalation in a time of exceptionally intense international relations.

Analyst: S2A1

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