The Wire - June 28, 2024

S2 Underground

//The Wire//2030Z June 28, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: INDICATIONS OF ISRAELI INVASION OF LEBANON CONTINUE TO MOUNT. HOUTHI ATTACKS CONTINUE. TRAIN DERAILMENT IN ILLINOIS CAUSES EVACUATIONS.//

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-International Events-

Middle East: Tensions remain high regarding a potentially impending Israeli invasion of Lebanon. Various world powers continue to express growing concerns, to include the United States. AC: Additionally, maritime watchers have noted the maneuver of various US Navy assets to the region. However, it’s not clear as to if these specific movements are routine or more of a diplomatic power projection. However, it is overwhelmingly likely that the preliminary staging of forces throughout the region is occurring to some degree, should a rapid evacuation operation be necessary.

Red Sea/HOA: Houthi attacks on commercial shipping continue. Over the past few days, several vessels have reported being targeted by missiles, including one vessel reporting 5x missile strike attempts. So far, all of these targeting attempts appear to be unsuccessful or near-misses.

-HomeFront-

Illinois: A train derailed in Matteson, causing limited local evacuations due to the leak of at least one car containing LPG. The leak has since been contained, and recovery efforts are ongoing. No other HAZMAT concerns have been identified as a result of this derailment.

Kentucky: Yesterday, Rep. Thomas Massie’s wife passed away suddenly and unexpectedly. No further details have been released at this time.

Washington D.C. – The SCOTUS has overruled a controversial 1984 decision that previously allowed federal agencies to interpret ambiguous laws. AC: This case, Chevron vs. Natural Resources Defense Council (colloquially known as the Chevron doctrine) has been cited as the bedrock of federal agencies being able to “interpret” the technical details of laws, and in many cases (in effect) add to or detract from the legal text as passed by an elected body. Overruling this case (in theory) removes a substantial portion of the bureaucratic authorities granted to federal agencies, meaning that a substantial shift in administrative law is likely to occur as a result of this ruling, to include the more than 18,000 laws that cite the precedent of this case.

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Analyst Comments: Last night, Israeli media reported that the White House has lifted the “soft” hold on the export of Mk 82 bombs to Israel. As a reminder, the White House had hesitated to export these unguided munitions for fear of the potential for civilian casualties in Gaza. As such, this shipment (and other shipments of even larger munitions) had been placed under review until the decision was made to complete the arms transfer. Overnight, various Israeli media outlets (citing confidential sources) claimed that the arms transfer had been approved, and the shipment will be completed after the Israeli operation in Rafah has reached a conclusion. Of course, unverifiable information from historically questionable sources must be taken with a grain of salt, however this may signal a few impending milestones: A potential shifting of logistics to support an operation in the North (which would need the larger munitions), a removal of the last American political hesitance to continue arming Israel with larger (and potentially unguided) munitions, and a potential widening of the conflict throughout the Middle East.

Analyst: S2A1

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