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92 The state of valuations in the current market and what they mean for investors with John Glencross of Calculus
Manage episode 403365432 series 3320023
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Valuations are always a popular topic. With much discussion about whether we are at the bottom of the current cycle, it seems a good time to revisit and we invited back someone who has experienced several market cycles: John Glencross, co-founder of Calculus Capital.
We had a great discussion on how the current market, how this compares with recent times and how a fund manager handles them. Topics discussed include:
- how companies are accepting lower valuations
- the danger of growth at any price
- where there are still bubbles and what the consequences of these might be
- how to manage investing when valuations are high
- the psychology of down rounds
- preferential return structures and what John is seeing in the market
- real unicorns versus valuation aberrations
- how valuation matters for investing
- how Calculus values existing portfolio
- John's sense of valuations in the EIS & VCT market and where he thinks the discrepancies are
- how close we are to the bottom of the valuation cycle
Talking with someone who has seen several downturns gave a great perspective on all these topics and there's lots for all advisers and investors. Enjoy!
01:00 John introduces himself
04:30 recent exit patterns
06:00 companies accepting lower valuations attraction of investment vs exits
07:30 avoiding growth at any price - US vs UK
10:15 where there is still bubbles
13:15 investing when valuations are high - changed pace of investments in recent years
16:45 the psychology of down rounds
18:45 preferential return structures and the general tightening of terms in market
26:00 when are unicorns a market aberration?
28:30 how valuation matters for investing
31:10 portfolio valuation - lags, being realistic and getting a good process
35:00 how EIS managers are using unrealised performance as marketing, but its not similar to exits
41:00 what is an acceptable band of uncertainty? How exits matter
44:15 are we at the bottom of the valuation cycle?
48:45 favourite questions
Links
Calculus Capital website: https://www.calculuscapital.com/
Subscribe to the EIS Navigator podcast on most services here: https://the-eis-navigator.captivate.fm/listen
Suggested books and media
Sunshine & Shadows
The Four Agreements by Don Miguel Ruiz
Sing as We Go by Simon Heffer
Bio
John Glencross
Chief Executive and Cofounder, Calculus Capital
John co-founded Calculus with Susan McDonald in 1999, creating one of the UK’s most successful, independent private equity firms focused on investing in entrepreneurial young British companies. John has over 30 years’ experience in private equity, corporate finance, and operational management. During that time, he has invested in, advised on or negotiated more than 100 transactions and served on publicly quoted and private corporate boards. Before co-founding Calculus, John served as a European Corporate Finance Director at UBS and, prior to this he was Head of Mergers and Acquisitions at Phillips and Drew, a 100-year-old London-based financial institution. At the start of his career, John qualified as a Chartered Accountant with Peat Marwick (subsequently KPMG), where he then went on to be recruited as a founder member of Deloitte’s newly established consultancy practice in the Gulf Region and then Corporate Finance practice in London. John graduated from Oxford University with an MA (Hons) in Philosophy, Politics and Economics.
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