Is This The Year-End Rally?

Steady Wealth Podcast

"It's just not that easy to make money in the markets; it requires discipline."

These words resonate with self-directed investors who often find themselves underperforming the indices.

The new Steady Wealth Podcast website, available at www.steadywealthpodcast.com, delves into the heart of this issue (and others)

In the latest episode of The Steady Wealth Podcast with Serge Berger, the discussion delves into the recent surge in risk assets and poses a crucial question: is this the inception of a year-end rally or have we already witnessed a significant portion of the anticipated upside? Berger, the host of the podcast and founder of thesteadytrader.com, begins by outlining the market's oversold conditions, signaling a potential bounce in various risk assets from U.S. equities to European equities and beyond.

Highlighting the technical basis for the oversold bounce, Berger links it to broader 4th quarter seasonality. He emphasizes the significance of understanding economic data for making informed investment decisions and encourages individuals engaging in self-directed investing to have informed conversations with their advisors.

Berger dissects the market's behavior from the previous week, observing a "risk-on" sentiment, where interest rate-sensitive assets surged while energy markets underperformed. He analyzes the correlations between equities, the dollar, oil, and yields, noting a divergence in their movements, especially with equities rising as other asset classes declined. He connects these market movements to the economic cycle and a gradually slowing economy.

Despite earlier misjudgments about the timing of the economic slowdown, Berger asserts the directional accuracy of his analysis. He elaborates on the reasons behind the market's reaction to weaker economic indicators and how it impacts different asset classes.

The podcast delves into the intricacies of market correlations and algorithms, emphasizing the importance of understanding the "why" behind market movements for effective risk management. Berger elucidates the recent market rally in response to the weakened ISM number and how this triggered varied reactions across asset classes.

Cautioning about potential challenges ahead, Berger examines technical indicators such as moving averages and overbought readings in the S&P 500 and German DAX. He scrutinizes Apple's performance and questions its growth trajectory. Berger outlines potential investment strategies, suggesting allocations to AGG (the aggregate bond ETF) and short-term Treasury bills, while advocating for a balanced approach to equity exposure and protective strategies through put options.

The podcast episode provides a comprehensive analysis of current market conditions, offering insights into potential investment strategies while emphasizing the importance of understanding economic cycles and correlations. It also stresses the significance of prudent risk management amidst uncertain market dynamics. Berger concludes by inviting listeners to explore more content on The Steady Wealth Podcast and encourages sharing or recommending potential guests for future episodes.