Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: The Black Swan. An alternate Ending . A Reposting.

StocktonAfterClass

This was the final lecture in my class on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, the last time I taught that class.
The thesis is that none of the main political science models for how this conflict will end are correct. But History (capital H) does not like intractable conflicts. SOMETHING will happen. And History (capital H) will not ask us what we think. Most likely, History (capital H) will choose something we don't like and something we cannot anticipate. This is called The Black Swan.
Let me say, I do not think Israel will cease to exist. But what I do think is that there will be massive bloodletting and significant depopulation. And the country will be transformed by the visit of this Black Swan so much that those of us around today will not recognize it.
I have always been very cautious to avoid reaching conclusions based on the headlines. What is happening today may look exceptionally dramatic and transformative, but most likely it is just a flash in the pan. Nothing will be changed.
But I see some new patterns that look significant. Attacks on isolated settlements or on settlers in cars, not conducted by organized groups but by individuals or perhaps by local bands of resistance. And there is what local people are calling the Knife Intifada (uprising) in which individuals stab other individuals. All of these are very hard to identify and remove.
And I have not even mentioned the hard right Israelis who conduct widespread vigilante attacks against Palestinians, and even against other Israelis.
Nor have I mentioned that the Israelis are spreading themselves very thinly across the West Bank, hoping to incorporate much of that area into Israel itself. What they plan to do with the Palestinians who live there is not clear. But it will not be good.
When the Palestinians strike, the Israeli security forces always, ALWAYS, respond with great force. They conduct massive bombing campaigns into Gaza. As with other militaries, they seem to be fighting the last war. But think about it. When was the last time Israel fought a national army? Was it 1973? In Lebanon (1982) they fought Hezbollah but that was a local resistance force, not a conventional army. During the two Intifadahs (1989 and 2000) that was against localized individuals or groups.
Note: My wife told me not to discuss this scenario, but the Israeli security forces discuss it so I am in good company.
Note also that this lacks the normal traits of my podcasts, introductory music for example.
I hope this makes you think.
Update: July 4, 2023. A major new poll shows only 35% of Israeli Jews have confidence in the future security of the state. Are we surprised? Headlines report someone driving a truck into a crowd in Tel Aviv. Someone else shoots into a crowd. Meanwhile, the Israeli military went deep into Jenin and its refugee camp, thinking this would restore security. But look at the examples listed above: truck attack, shooting, knives. Were any of those produced in a weapons factory in Jenin?
Update: July, 2023. A fifth of all Israelis have foreign passports.