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Mastering Conditional Probabilities for Trading Success
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Manage episode 434461116 series 1262477
The conversation highlights market volatility, focusing on conditional probabilities and their practical implications for traders. Gold is down, as are other markets, leading to increased volatility. The discourse delves deep into using theoretical models like the Black-Scholes and conditioning on events to predict market behaviors and manage risk. This includes discussions on conditional value at risk (CVaR) and empirical data on market trends. A key takeaway is the importance of being adaptable, as theoretical models may underestimate long runs.
274 episodes
Fetch error
Hmmm there seems to be a problem fetching this series right now. Last successful fetch was on August 16, 2024 20:56 ()
What now? This series will be checked again in the next day. If you believe it should be working, please verify the publisher's feed link below is valid and includes actual episode links. You can contact support to request the feed be immediately fetched.
Manage episode 434461116 series 1262477
The conversation highlights market volatility, focusing on conditional probabilities and their practical implications for traders. Gold is down, as are other markets, leading to increased volatility. The discourse delves deep into using theoretical models like the Black-Scholes and conditioning on events to predict market behaviors and manage risk. This includes discussions on conditional value at risk (CVaR) and empirical data on market trends. A key takeaway is the importance of being adaptable, as theoretical models may underestimate long runs.
274 episodes
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