Gerald Ashley & Rory Sutherland on Prosilience

The Human Risk Podcast

What is Prosilience, and how can organisations ensure their people provide it?
That’s where the discussion between my guests on this episode, Gerald Ashley and Rory Sutherland, begins. Where it goes from there, is a joyous adventure in which two great thinkers explore a range of Human Risk related topics.
* Listener Warning: the episode contains adult language *
This episode is the 100th in the Human Risk podcast series and is a continuation of a discussion which began in the 99th episode. I recommend listening to that first before exploring this one.
You'll find my earlier discussion with Rory here: https://www.podpage.com/the-human-risk-podcast/rory-sutherland-on-compliance/
and Gerald here: https://www.podpage.com/the-human-risk-podcast/gerald-ashley-on-uncertainty/
As with the previous episode, I’m providing more detailed show notes given the breadth and depth of issues covered.
05:18 Rory refers to Seeing Like A State by James C Scott. More on that here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seeing_Like_a_State
05:54 Gerald talks about the metrics used to measure Soviet bicycle manufacturing. This article doesn’t feature bicycles, but covers the idea and features a wonderful cartoon from a Soviet magazine: https://econlife.com/2015/08/the-incentives-that-metrics-create/
09:32 Rory talks about his appearance on Bloomberg TV. You can watch that here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-03-25/advertisers-becoming-too-obsessed-with-tech-sutherland
11:50 Rory mentions Rod Liddell in the context of a story about the BBC’s travel policy. To learn more about Rod: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rod_Liddle
12:34 Gerald mentions Peter Turchin, who Rory explains is a Cliodynamicist. You’ll find Peter’s website here: http://peterturchin.com/ and a guide to Cliodynamics one that website here: http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamics/
14:10 A rare intervention by me to mention David Graber’s book Bullshit Jobs - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullshit_Jobs
14:30 Rory refers to 14th Century Middle Eastern Historian Ibn Khaldoun - https://www.britannica.com/biography/Ibn-Khaldun
15:04 Gerald talks about The Great Wave by David Hackett Fischer - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Wave_(book)
18:25 Rory talks about Daniel Kahneman’s research into risk appetites of CEOs and division heads. You can read more about that in this HBR article: https://hbr.org/2020/03/your-company-is-too-risk-averse
19:40 Gerald talks about the Lockheed Martin Skunkworks. You can read about the history of that unit here https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/news/features/history/skunk-works.html and its current role here: https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/who-we-are/business-areas/aeronautics/skunkworks.html
22:59 Gerald talks about Nudgestock, the annual Behavioural Science festival hosted by Rory. You can read about that here: https://www.nudgestock.co.uk/
The presentation he refers to is by Jules Goddard called The Fatal Bias and can be seen here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNlzl37GLdA
24:46 Rory highlights the story of mathematician’s Abraham Wald intervention in the Second World War. It is explained in this excerpt from Jordan Ellenberg’s excellent How Not To Be Wrong: https://medium.com/@penguinpress/an-excerpt-from-how-not-to-be-wrong-by-jordan-ellenberg-664e708cfc3d
25:56 Rory talks about IBM’s Thomas Watson and his desire to have Wild Geese. In actual fact, Watson talked about Wild Ducks (https://www.mbiconcepts.com/watson-sr-and-wild-ducks.html). Interestingly, the Duck story actually comes from an original fable by Søren Kierkegaard about a Wild Goose. For some reason Watson preferred Ducks! You can read the Kierkegaard story here: https://www.maxelon.co.uk/2015/01/domestic-geese/
26:18 Rory refers to James C Scott’s idea of an Anarchist’s Squint. You can read more about that in his collection of essays called Two Cheers for Anarchism: https://theanarchistlibrary.org/library/james-c-scott-two-cheers-for-anarchism
32:33 Gerald talks about how the British government sold Rolls Royce engines to the Russian government. You can read about that here: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/how-british-turbojet-allowed-russias-mig-15-fight-the-air-26385
32:50 Rory explains how penicillin was passed by America to supposedly neutral countries during World War Two, against British instructions. It ended up saving Adolf Hitler’s life after a bomb plot on 20th July 1940. More on the research behind that here: https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/news/nr/154-1.175018
40:05 Rory references British supergroup The Travelling Wilburys. Find out who they are here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traveling_Wilburys. You can hear them on Spotify here: https://open.spotify.com/artist/2hO4YtXUFJiUYS2uYFvHNK?si=eqMFhifpSIai03kZPFHOVQ