EA - Bringing the International Space Station down safely: A Billion dollar waste? by NickLaing

The Nonlinear Library

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Bringing the International Space Station down safely: A Billion dollar waste?, published by NickLaing on September 15, 2024 on The Effective Altruism Forum.
Epistemic status: Uncertain, shooting from the hip a little with no expertise in this area and only a couple of hours research done. I might well have missed something obvious, in which case I'll revise or even take the post down.
Money Waste is Everywhere
Here in Northern Uganda where poverty abounds, many expenditures feel wasteful. Last night I had a great time at the fanciest restaurant in town with friends but felt a pang of guilt about my $7 meal. Enough of a pang to avoid telling my wife after I came home.
A bigger scale waste in these parts is the partial closure of the main bridge across the river Nile, because the bridge has apparently degraded and become hazardous. Vehicles larger than a minivan now can't cross, which has raised the price of public transport by 50% and trucks now have a 3 hour detour. Besides these direct costs, this closure increases the cost of fuel and commodities in Northern Uganda.
By my loose, conservative BOTEC the closure costs $10,000 every day (1.2 million dollars in 4 months so far) which Ugandans now can't spend on education and healthcare, while likely causing more crashes due to increasingly tired drivers who now use worse roads. The detour itself may have already cost more lives than would be lost if the bridge does collapse and kills a few people.[1]
But there are far bigger wastes of money on this good earth.
A Billion Dollars to bring down a space station?
Space X have secured an 843 million dollar contract[2] to build the boringly named "U.S. De-Orbit vehicle" (why not "Sky Shepherd")[3], which in 2031 will safely guide the decommissioned International Space Station (ISS) into the Pacific Ocean. This all sounded pretty cool until I thought… is this worth it?.
No human has ever been definitively killed by an object falling from space, although there have been a couple of close calls with larger asteroids injuring many while Open Asteroid Impact could be a game changer here in future. This one time though, a wee piece of space junk did hit Lottie Williams in the shoulder and she took it home as a memento. I'm jealous.
According to a great Nature article "Unnecessary risks created by uncontrolled rocket reentries", over the last 30 years over 1,000 space bodies have fallen to earth in uncontrolled re-entries and never killed anyone. The closest call might be a Chinese rocket in 2020 which damaged a house in the Ivory Coast. The article predicts a 10% chance of a fatal space junk accident in the next 10 years - far from zero and worth considering, but unlikely to be the next EA cause area.
This low risk makes sense given that only 3% of the globe are urban areas and under 1% actually contain human homes[4]- most stuff falls down where there ain't people. Also the bulk of falling spacecraft burns up before hitting the ground.
In contrast a million people die from car crashes every year,[5] and each of us has about a 1 in 100 chance of dying that way.
Although the ISS is the biggest ever at 450 tons, we do have priors. Two 100 ton uncontrolled re-entries (Skylab and tragically the Columbia) crashed to earth without issue. So what actually is the risk if the ISS was left to crash uncontrolled? The U.S. Government requires controlled re-entry for anything that poses over a 1 in 10,000 risk to human life so this risk must be higher.
NASA doesn't give us their risk estimate but only state "The ISS requires a controlled re-entry because it is very large, and uncontrolled re-entry would result in very large pieces of debris with a large debris footprint, posing a significant risk to the public worldwide" [6].
I hesitate to even guesstimate the risk to human life at the ISS falli...