Weather Thursday June 20 2024 First day of Summer... Hot NE , gulf coast rains and severe storms dry west coast

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Heavy rain/flooding and gusty winds will continue at least through this
evening in South Texas associated with Tropical Storm Alberto...
...Heavy rain and flash flooding concerns increase for the north-central
U.S. later Thursday into Friday...
...A heat wave will persist over the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and the
Northeast into late week...
Tropical Storm Alberto has formed in the far western Gulf of Mexico and is
forecast to make landfall in Mexico around Thursday morning. Alberto will
have impacts extending into southern Texas north of its center of
circulation, including tropical-storm-force winds and storm surge
continuing through tonight and heavy rain/flooding concerns. These hazards
are likely to be enhanced by surface troughing near the Gulf Coast that
focuses the ample tropical moisture. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches
are expected into South Texas, which could produce considerable flash and
urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Thus a Moderate
Risk is in place in the Excessive Rainfall Outlook through tonight, with a
Slight Risk in place for Thursday for South Texas. While Alberto should
weaken rapidly over the higher terrain of Mexico on Thursday and reduce
winds, the tropical moisture will stream north and trigger showers and
thunderstorms across the southern High Plains and Four Corners region on
Thursday and Friday, where Marginal to Slight Risks of excessive rainfall
are highlighted. Meanwhile over the western Atlantic, moisture associated
with a tropical wave could reach northeastern Florida and coastal Georgia
Thursday night to Friday morning.
Though the north-central U.S. is seeing a relative break in heavy rainfall
today behind a cold front, renewed support for thunderstorms with heavy
rain is likely there Thursday into Friday. Upper-level energy and the
front stalling and drifting north will reinvigorate storms in central to
northern parts of the Plains and Mississippi Valley into the Midwest.
Moderate Risks of excessive rainfall have been introduced for eastern
South Dakota into parts of Minnesota and western Wisconsin on Thursday
into Friday, meaning numerous flash floods are likely. Antecedent
conditions there are wet because of previous rainfall, so this contributes
to flooding concerns. Farther east, scattered thunderstorms are likely
across the Great Lakes region and Northeast. Marginal to Slight Risks are
delineated each day from the Storm Prediction Center (mainly for the
threat of severe wind but with some low chances for hail), and Marginal
Risks of excessive rainfall are in place as well.
All these rain and thunderstorm areas are taking place along the periphery
of an upper ridge/heat dome that edges from the Mid-Atlantic into the
Mid-South over the next couple of days, producing a record-breaking heat
wave across the Great Lakes, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic. Afternoon high
temperatures and warm overnight lows will challenge daily records and even
some monthly and all-time records. Heat index readings are expected to
peak from 100 to 105 degrees in many locations. Those without access to
reliable air conditioning are urged to find a way to cool down. Record
warm overnight temperatures will prevent natural cooling and allow the
heat danger to build over time indoors without air conditioning.
Temperatures may be lower and less hazardous closer to the coast if/where
sea breezes form. By Friday, conditions should improve over New England
behind a cold front, but temperatures well into the 90s and higher heat
indices are forecast to continue across the Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic.
Meanwhile, cooler than average highs are likely into the southern High
Plains with the clouds and rain forecast, but temperatures over the West
will gradua