E128: OpenAI $3.4b ARR, Mistral’s new $6.2b valuation, Databricks revenue +60% vs 2023, Brex revenue +35% in 2023, Investment case for electricity?!

This Week in Pre-IPO Stocks

Pre-IPO stock valuations = www.x.com/aarongdillon (see pinned post)
Pre-IPO stock index fact sheet = www.agdillon.com/index
00:07 | Mistral’s new $6.2b valuation
- French AI large language model company
- Raised $645m at $6.2b valuation
- General Catalyst led; Nvidia, Salesforce, IBM participated
- Capital to be used to expand globally
- Tech is compliant with new EU AI regulation
00:48 | OpenAI $3.4b ARR
- AI large language model provider, partnerships with Apple and Microsoft
- $3.4b ARR as of May 2024, $2.0b ARR in Dec 2023, $1.0b in Jun 2023
- Anthropic $100m ARR, Cohere $22m ARR
- OpenAI has a 25x revenue multiple
- $200m ARR from Microsoft partnership
- New products; search engine, video generating models
01:30 | OpenAI + Apple deal terms unveiled
- OpenAI’s ChatGPT to be integrated into iPhones, iPads, Macs
- No Apple to OpenAI payment
- Apple believes brand and product exposure to Apple’s millions of customers is more valuable
- Users will need an OpenAI subscription for some Apple interface use cases; both OpenAI and Apple will make incremental revenue
- Apple deal is not exclusive; in talks with Google Gemini and Anthropic
02:21 | OpenAI new CFO, CPO
- Sarah Friar new CFO; Nextdoor holdings CEO, Square CFO, current Walmart board member
- Kevin Weil new CPO; Instagram, Twitter, Planet Labs PBC
- Focus on driving international revenue growth and enterprise customer revenue growth
- $103.8b secondary market valuation, +21% vs its Apr 2024 round
03:15 | Brex revenue +35% in 2023
- Online banking company for businesses
- Restructured leadership; co-CEO to Franseschi sole CEO, Dubugras as chairman
- Raised over $1.5b in capital
- 30,000 business customers; DoorDash, Roblox
- 20% staff reduction in 2024
- Reduced cash burn by 50%, extends runway 4 yrs
- 2023 revenue +35%, gross profit +75%
- $3.8b secondary market valuation, -69% vs its Jan 2022 round
04:18 | Investment case for electricity?!
- PG&E, California electric utility, reports 3.5 gigawatts of incremental electricity demand from 24 new data centers
- Equal to output of 3 nuclear power plants
- New data centers coming in next 5 yrs
- Electricity demand to grow 2% to 4% annually through 2040
- Electricity stands to be an incredible investment opportunity
05:19 | Databrick’s new chart/graph tool
- Data management, analytics, and AI company
- Launching AI/BI, a new visualization tool
- Competes with Salesforce Tableau, Microsoft Power BI
- AI/BI = uses AI to create charts/graphs via typed queries
- AI/BI is free to Databricks users, vs Saleforce/Microsoft which have fees
06:12 | Databricks revenue +60% vs 2023
- $2.4b ARR forecast as of Jun 2024, +60% vs 2023
- $1.6b in 2023 full year revenue, +50% vs 2022
- 221 sales deals over $1.0m
- Net revenue retention +140%
- R&D is 33% of revenue over last 3yrs
- 80% subscription gross margin over last 3yrs
- $400m ARR from data warehouse product
- $42.8b secondary market valuation, -1% vs its Nov 2023 round
07:17 | Pre-IPO +2.56% for week, +71.53% for last 1yr
- Up week: Chime +22.3%, CoreWeave +19.3%, Wiz +13.1%, Cohere +11.3%, Scale AI +8.8%
- Down week: OpenAI -5.5%, Epic Games -4.0%, Deel -2.9%, Bytedance -2.1%, Notion -1.9%
- Top valuations: ByteDance $292b, SpaceX $191b, OpenAI $104b, Stripe $76b, Databricks $43b
07:54 | 2024 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Index week performance
- www.agdillon.com/index for fact sheet pdf
- 2024 Vintage Index top contributors since inception: Rippling +106%, Revolut +52%, Epic Games +44%, Klarna +43%, Anduril +27%
- Key metric averages for all Vintage Indexes 5 years old or older…
3.31 distributed paid in capital
2.05 residual value to paid in capital
5.36 total value to paid in capit