E130: Revolut $40b val, +75% from current 2ndary valuation; Cerebras AI chips IPO; no IPO for Stripe; $100b from SoftBank to AI companies; + X Payments, Starlink Mini, new Anthropic AI model, HeyGen $60m raise

This Week in Pre-IPO Stocks

Pre-IPO stock valuations = www.x.com/aarongdillon (see pinned post)
Pre-IPO stock index fact sheet = www.agdillon.com/index
Pre-IPO stock funds = www.agdillon.com/funds
00:06 | No IPOs for Stripe
- Online payments company
- Stripe co-founder, John Collison; Stripe will continue to do tenders in the future
- Two tenders in the last two years, perhaps one tender a year?
- Tender offers = no IPO on the horizon
- $76b secondary market valuation, +16% vs its last round in Feb 2024
01:03 | X as “everything app”
- X Payments being stood up now
- Approved in 28 states, aims to be live by Dec 2024
- X Payments will compete with Venmo, Cash App, Zelle
- No crypto
- Fidelity has X at a $12.5b valuation, ballpark 3x-4x revenue multiple
- Payments are foundational to be an everything app, we believe an X App Store is next
02:40 | Starlink Mini launched
- Starlink Mini is a compact version of standard satellite internet antenna
- Weighs 2lbs, 12x10x1.5 inches in size
- $599 for mini antenna, $150/month service fee
- Starlink has 6,000 satellites in orbit, 3m customers in 100 countries
- $192b secondary market valuation, +7% vs its last round in Jan 2024 … $200b tender announced expected to close late summer
03:55 | Cerebras AI chip IPO
- Hired Citigroup to lead IPO
- 2H 2024 for listing
- $4b+ IPO valuation, above last round in 2021
04:36 | SoftBank’s $100b for AI companies
- Goal is to deliver “artificial super-intelligence”, or ASI
- SoftBank owns Arm, AI chip maker
- SoftBank activity in the VC market led to the inflated valuations in 2021, could same happen now in AI ecosystem
05:17 | New Anthropic AI model
- AI large language model company
- Claude 3.5 Sonnet launching
- 2x as fast as Claude 3 Sonnet; excels in coding, text-based reasoning vs OpenAI GPT-4o
- Enterprise pricing = $3 per million tokens fed into the model, $15 per million tokens generated
- $1b 2024 revenue forecast
- $21b secondary market valuation, +18% vs its last round in Jan 2024
06:21 | HeyGen raised $60m
- AI-driven video content company
- $500m valuation
- Product = upload video of yourself, photorealistic avatar created, upload transcript, AI avatars reads as if you, translate to 40+ languages
- $24/month subscription fee
- 40,000 customers
- $35m ARR in 2023
- HeyGen builds on top of OpenAI and ElevenLabs (“last mile” AI app)
08:10 | Revolut tender at $40b!
- Morgan Stanley to bank tender offer
- $500m raise
- £1.7 billion 2023 revenue, +84% vs 2022
- $23b secondary market valuation, -31% vs its last primary round in Jul 2021
- Recent secondary market buyers stand to make a quick +75% return if $40b valuation holds
09:30 | Pre-IPO -1.07% for week, +65.20% for last 1yr
- Up week: Chime +22.3%, CoreWeave +19.3%, Wiz +13.1%, Cohere +11.3%, Scale AI +8.8%
- Down week: OpenAI -5.5%, Epic Games -4.0%, Deel -2.9%, Bytedance -2.1%, Notion -1.9%
- Top valuations: ByteDance $292b, SpaceX $191b, OpenAI $104b, Stripe $76b, Databricks $43b
10:27 | 2024 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Index week performance
- www.agdillon.com/index for fact sheet pdf
- 2024 Vintage Index top contributors since inception: Rippling +106%, Revolut +52%, Epic Games +44%, Klarna +43%, Anduril +27%
- Key metric averages for all Vintage Indexes 5 years old or older…
3.31 distributed paid in capital
2.05 residual value to paid in capital
5.36 total value to paid in capital
4.1 years to return the fund