Bits + Bips: Why Hasn't This Macro Cycle Boosted the Crypto Markets? - Ep. 702

Unchained

As crypto markets continue to struggle, experts weigh in on whether the capitulation phase is finally over and what lies ahead. In this episode, hosts James Seyffart and Joe McCann, along with guest Noelle Acheson, delve into the recent market downturn, the potential for a recession in 2025, and why Bitcoin's divergence from gold is puzzling analysts. They also explore the impacts of upcoming rate cuts, the lingering effects of fiscal dominance, and whether Ethereum ETFs are living up to the hype.

Show highlights:

• Why crypto has been down so bad recently despite the macro cycle
• The three factors weighing on the bitcoin price for the moment, according to Noelle
• The chances of a recession in the U.S. in 2025 and how much the Fed might cut rates
• Why the current rate-cutting cycle is unusual, with markets expecting far more cuts than usual, and how a potential spike in inflation could complicate the Fed's response
• Why the K-shaped economy endures, driven by the U.S. government's reliance on capital gains taxes
• Why fiscal dominance is a growing concern and why bitcoin's recent divergence from gold is puzzling, as they typically move together during crises
• Whether retail has been a buyer of the spot Bitcoin ETFs or it’s just onchain traders who are now buying them
• Why James says the Ethereum ETFs “have been an absolute flop"

Sponsors:

• Gemini
• Stellar

Hosts:

• James Seyffart, Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence
• Joe McCann, Founder, CEO, and CIO of Asymmetric

Guest:

• Noelle Acheson, Author of the “Crypto Is Macro Now” Newsletter

Timestamps:

• 00:00 Introduction
• 03:35 Why crypto is struggling recently
• 09:16 Three key factors weighing on Bitcoin's price
• 15:12 Chances of a 2025 U.S. recession and potential Fed rate cuts
• 25:55 Unusual rate-cutting cycle and inflation risks
• 32:06 Enduring K-shaped economy and capital gains tax impact
• 34:37 Concerns about fiscal dominance and Bitcoin’s divergence from gold
• 54:57 Retail vs. onchain traders in spot Bitcoin ETFs
• 1:01:43 Whether Ethereum ETFs have been a "flop"

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