US recession risks, a simple wealth-creating strategy, Warnes' 2024 outlook | 13 Dec 2023

Wealth of Experience

Season 2, Episode 14
Richard Rauch, Investment Director at Brandywine Global, gives a fascinating tour of the global economic landscape. He says economic normalisation post Covid is almost done, the inflation scare is over and there's even the possibility of deflation happening in the US in future. Rauch believes that as the economic cycle extends, the odds are increasing that the US, and the world, has a hard economic landing.
Duncan Burns, Asia Pacific CIO at Vanguard, says investors are too hung up on beating the marketing and sticking to a simple, long-term strategy can deliver hassle-free, excellent results. He describes how to allocate assets to deliver such results and the key traps to avoid.
Finally, regular guest, Peter Warnes from Morningstar's Your Money Weekly, gives us his outlook for the Australian market and economy next year.
This is our last episode for 2023 and we'll see you back on January 10, 2024.
Have a merry Christmas and Happy New Year.

Chapters

1. US recession risks, a simple wealth-creating strategy, Warnes' 2024 outlook | 13 Dec 2023 (00:00:00)

2. Peter Warnes (00:02:00)

3. Peter Warnes - latest GDP figures (00:02:17)

4. Peter Warnes - rate hikes to have impact in '24 (00:07:15)

5. Peter Warnes - recession still possible (00:08:57)

6. Peter Warnes - rate hikes less likely now (00:09:59)

7. Peter Warnes - productivity figures were distorted (00:10:45)

8. Peter Warnes - market outook (00:11:45)

9. Duncan Burns - Vanguard's Asia Pacific CIO (00:15:45)

10. Duncan Burns - snapshot of Vanguard (00:16:22)

11. Duncan Burns - answers critics of passive investing (00:18:46)

12. Duncan Burns - passive is a low turnover strategy (00:23:50)

13. Duncan Burns - importance of asset allocation (00:25:03)

14. Duncan Burns - income is back for fixed income (00:26:27)

15. Duncan Burns - bonds vs cash (00:32:58)

16. Duncan Burns - Aussie still underweight international stocks (00:34:13)

17. Duncan Burns - part of 60/40 fan club (00:36:52)

18. Duncan Burns - common investing errors (00:41:19)

19. Richard Rauch - Investment Director, Brandywine Global (00:46:31)

20. Richard Rauch - overview of Brandywine (00:46:56)

21. Richard Rauch - global macroeconomic overview (00:52:16)

22. Richard Rauch - US has been driving global growth (00:53:36)

23. Richard Rauch - this isn't a normal economic cycle (00:54:29)

24. Richard Rauch - normalisation from Covid almost complete (00:57:07)

25. Richard Rauch - inflation is largely over (00:58:04)

26. Richard Rauch - the big 2024 story has been US growth (01:02:03)

27. Richard Rauch - risks of US hard landing (01:06:35)

28. Richard Rauch - underweight US large cap & tech (01:07:36)

29. Richard Rauch - bonds > stocks (01:08:48)

30. Richard Rauch - Brazilian, Mexican, and Columbian bonds (01:10:29)

31. Richard Rauch - how Australia shapes up (01:15:49)