EP 81: Q4 2023 Insight, The Shifting Sands of the Global Economy | 5th October 2023

Beyond the Benchmark by EFG

Join us on Beyond the Benchmark as we review the Q4 2023 Insights document. We've been pleasantly surprised by the resilience of certain economies this year, especially the US, Brazil, and India. Our team, including Paul Temperton, Stefan Gerlach, Daniel Murray, GianLuigi Mandruzzato, Joaquin Thul, and Sam Jochim, discuss these economic patterns and their implications. As we navigate the current landscape, we also focus on the return of real yields in fixed-income markets and speculate on where the Fed might land when the dust settles.

In the next segment of our conversation, we focus on the intriguing dynamics of equity market volatility, the potential for a shift in bond prices to equity prices, and what a Fed rate cut might imply. We also reflect on the historical methods that governments have employed to reduce public debt and the challenges associated with achieving this without resorting to financial repression or inflation. As we explore the rising deficits in the U.S., we consider how this might impact the attractiveness of the dollar and who's currently investing in US treasuries.

In the final segment of our discussion, we turn our gaze to the UK and German economies, evaluating the recovery timeline of the UK housing market and the issues facing the German economy. From the need for increased defense spending and digitalization to the outdated traditional German growth model, we cover it all. Wrapping up, we also contemplate the Eurozone's trade deficit with China and the potential implications of China's slowing economy. From real estate in China to India's GDP, we offer an in-depth analysis of these global economic trends.

Our host, Moz Afzal:

https://bit.ly/31XbkTR

Our guests:

Daniel Murray

https://bit.ly/3tNPXSK

Paul Temperton

http://tier.co.uk/

Joaquin Thul

https://bit.ly/3d7QWGl

GianLuigi Mandruzzato

https://bit.ly/3daScaX

Stefan Gerlach, Chief Economist at EFG

bit.ly/3mz6t8V

Sam Jochim, Economist:

https://bit.ly/3XLsZKv

EFGAM:

https://www.newcapital.com/

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