Two of the world's most profitable political gamblers tell you how to bet & win real money on elections, legislation, and court cases. A must-listen for anyone tired of partisan news & bogus polls that obscure the facts.
…
continue reading
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1
Crypto Bros at the Republican National Convention
39:03
39:03
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
39:03
Keendawg (@keendawg) and Gaeten Dugas (@gaetend) return to the show to review the Republican National Convention and discuss what it tells us about the Trump-Harris matchup. Timestamps 3:58: Interview begins 5:19: Shayne Coplan at the RNC 18:05: Why the RNC matters 19:48: Odds on Republicans winning the presidency 27:47: Media treatment of Harris 3…
…
continue reading
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1
How to Comment on the CFTC's Event Contracts Proposal
42:28
42:28
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
42:28
Part I: Pratik Chougule offers his thoughts on what to say in comments to the CFTC on its event contracts proposal. Part II: Mick Bransfield discusses the federal judge who will decide the lawsuit between Kalshi and the CFTC Timestamps 1:40: How to submit a comment to the CFTC 2:57: How to watch the CFTC Open Meeting on YouTube 3:43: What to write …
…
continue reading
Part I: Jared Whitley explains why it will be difficult politically and legally to reschedule marijuana in 2024 Part II: Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield discuss what a Republican president would mean for the regulation of election event contracts Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces marijuana rescheduling segment 2:11: Pratik introduces segment o…
…
continue reading
Part I: William Kedjanyi previews the July 4 UK elections. He discusses Nigel Farage's rise, what he's hearing from ordinary voters, and whether Labour will win more than 450 seats. Part II: Anthony Pickles discusses why there is relatively little hedging in the UK betting markets Timestamps 0:30: Pratik introduces Kedjanyi 1:53: Pratik introduces …
…
continue reading
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1
Trump Probably Won't Pick J.D. Vance for VP
46:21
46:21
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
46:21
Part I: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule), Ben Freeman (benwfreeman1), and Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) discuss why Trump is unlikely to select J.D. Vance as VP. Part II: Pratik and Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) discuss what comments will favorably influence the CFTC in the ongoing rulemaking on event contracts Part III: Anthony Pickles (@polgambling) p…
…
continue reading
Part I: Professor Anthony Pickles (@polgambling), an expert on political gambling, does a deep dive into Keir Starmer and precisely how many seats Labour and the Conservatives are likely to win in UK's upcoming elections. Part II: Vegas bookmaker Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) explains how professional bettors are driving irrational odds in the VP markets…
…
continue reading
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1
Trump's VP Pick: Qualifications versus Politics
42:04
42:04
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
42:04
3-Part Episode Part I: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule), SSG TItle Belt Champ Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1), and Title Belt Challenger Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) debate whether or not Trump cares about qualifications in his VP decision, or whether it will come down to politics. Part II: Doug Campbell (@tradeandmoney) analyzes how he won the 2023 Astral Cod…
…
continue reading
Pratik Chougule previews Manifest 2024. Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1) and Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) negotiate a side bet on whether Trump will select Tim Scott, Doug Burgum, or Marco Rubio as his running mate. They discuss how Trump will make the decision and when he'll announce it. Timestamps 0:09: Pratik introduces segment on Trump VP selection 1:44:…
…
continue reading
The CFTC has proposed a new rule that would restrict betting on election markets. Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield do a deep dive into the CFTC's deliberations. Timestamps 0:00: Introduction 6:11: Interview with Bransfield begins 8:50: CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam is spending political capital on the issue 10:14: What is rulemaking? 11:24: Behnam…
…
continue reading
London-based political gambler Pip Moss joins SSG to discuss Rishi Sunak's political future. Timestamps 4:03: Interview with Pip begins 4:11: Pip's background 11:02: What went wrong for Sunak? 21:35: How election timing is determined in UK 26:00: When an election can constitutionally be held 27:22: Current market prices on timing of UK election 31:…
…
continue reading
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1
Best and Worst of Political Gambling in 2023
50:06
50:06
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
50:06
Every year, Star Spangled Gamblers hosts the Golden Modelos—an awards show for the best and worst of political gambling in the previous year. Abhi Kylasa (AENews) and Vanilla Vice return to the show to discuss which nominees should make the ballot. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces the Golden Modelos and why they matter 5:56: Vice introduces the G…
…
continue reading
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1
When Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce Get Engaged?
46:52
46:52
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
46:52
Hemma Kilawan, a member of the SSG team, analyzes whether and when Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce will get engaged. Timestamps 0:40: Pratik explains why SSG is covering Taylor Swift markets and how they relate to political gambling 3:50: Pratik thanks a Patreon sponsor and why his contribution is important 8:15: Interview with Hemma begins 9:28: Hem…
…
continue reading
Doug Campbell returns to SSG to provide an update on the war in Ukraine. Doug is the founder and CEO of Insight Prediction, an expert on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and a whale trader himself. Doug argues that the war has become a stalemate and provides advice on how to trade on this reality. 0:42: Doug's background 0:52: Doug's SSG interview abou…
…
continue reading
Saul Munn is one of the world's leading experts on building the forecasting community. He is the Co-Founder of Optic Forecasting and the Lead Organizer of the Manifest conference. In Part 1, Saul joins the show to discuss which communities comprise the emerging forecasting community. In Part 2, Brian Darling, former counsel to Senator Rand Paul, re…
…
continue reading
Part 1: Washington-based lobbyist and former Rand Paul counsel Brian Darling returns to the show to discuss Trump's VP selection. Part 2: Mick Bransfield, an expert on prediction market regulation, returns to discuss reports that PredictIt is pursuing a settlement with the CFTC. 0:57: Current market odds on Republican VP nominee 3:44: Pratik introd…
…
continue reading
Dr. Lucas (@Talophex) returns for a deep dive into Donald Trump's health and how it should inform a bet on whether he'll be elected president. Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers 0:00: Pratik introduces the episode 1:17: Discoloration of Trump's hand and Trump's alleged body odor 4:17: Interview begins 5:46: Trump's coronary artery…
…
continue reading
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1
Haley and DeSantis Battle for Second in Iowa
38:48
38:48
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
38:48
While Trump appears to hold a commanding lead heading in the Iowa caucuses, second place remains uncertain. Ben Freeman challenges The Winner for the SSG title belt on the question of who will perform better in the Iowa caucuses: Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley. Plus, Pratik Chougule explains the nomination process for the 2024 Golden Modelos. 0:00: Pr…
…
continue reading
Prediction market enthusiast and effective altruist Nathan Young (@nathanpmyoung) joins the show to discuss the relation of prediction markets and AI. He also discusses Polymarket's market on whether an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize before August and explains why it's unlikely to happen. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 4:00: Interview …
…
continue reading
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1
Why Joe Biden's Health Concerns Are Overstated
41:58
41:58
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
41:58
Four Part Episode Part 1: Dr. Lucas (@talophex) on Biden's health Part 2: The Winner (@thewinner2875) and Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1) on whether Vivek Ramaswamy is worth buying as a hedge Part 3: Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) on the CFTC's decision to reject Kalshi's election contracts Part 4: Nathan Young (@nathanpyoung) on religion and predic…
…
continue reading
Three-Part Episode In Part I, Ben Freeman and SSG Title Belt Champion The Winner review the DeSantis-Newsom debate and discuss whether DeSantis can make a comeback. In Part II, PlayUSA columnist Steve Friess offers lessons on what the political betting community can learn from how sports betting became mainstream. In Part III, Mick Bransfield provi…
…
continue reading
Three-part episode: (1) Dr. Lucas—the "surgeon general of prediction market Twitter"—joins to discuss Mitch McConnell's health. Why did he "freeze" in public multiple times? Did the Congressional physician cover up his actual condition? (2) Rule3O3 discusses how large donors approach their political contributions (3) Jonathan Zubkoff (@zubbybadger)…
…
continue reading
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1
Final Predictions on Argentina's Presidential Elections
43:45
43:45
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
43:45
Colombia-based trader Ian Bezek (@irbezek) returns to the show to offer some final thoughts on the close and uncertain presidential race in Argentina. 1:32: Ian's thoughts on the final debate between Javier Milei and Sergio Massa 2:10: Ian's advice on Polymarket's margin market 5:20: Interview begins 6:06: Massa's backround 7:43: Massa's political …
…
continue reading
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1
Why Azerbaijan Might Actually Invade Armenia
40:47
40:47
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
40:47
Eurasia expert Kristofer Harrison makes the case for why the odds of an invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan are much higher than the market price on Polymarket. 3:54: Interview with Harrison begins 5:06: Do hedge funds use political betting insights? 7:10: Background on Armenia and Azerbaijan 7:56: Why there are tensions between Armenia and Azerbaija…
…
continue reading
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1
Final Predictions on the Kentucky Governor's Race
41:21
41:21
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
41:21
On the eve of the Kentucky governor's election, a new poll by Emerson suggests that the race could be much closer than initially expected. SSG Title Belt Champion TheWinner (@thewinner2875) and Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) join the show to make their final predictions. Although they generally agree in their analyses, they settle on a side bet and a chall…
…
continue reading
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1
A Democratic Frontrunner in the Kentucky Governor's Race
39:19
39:19
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
39:19
3-Part Episode — Keendawg returns to discuss why Andy Beshear, Kentucky's Democratic Governor, is favored for re-election, but why lottos on his Republican challenger might be a good bet — Pratik reports on new evidence that Kalshi was behind the CFTC's enforcement action against Polymarket — MagaVacuum explains how to gain a betting edge while tra…
…
continue reading
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1
Inside the Review that Led to Kalshi's Rejection at the CFTC
43:01
43:01
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
43:01
After another review with a 30-day public comment period, the CFTC rejected Kalshi's proposal to offer election contracts. Mick Bransfield and Pratik Chougule do a deep dive into the outpouring of public comments that led to the CFTC's decision. 0:00: Introduction begins 2:14: Kalshi's incentives and how they shape its strategy toward political bet…
…
continue reading
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1
Richard Hanania Takes on Cancel Culture in the Political Betting Community
42:12
42:12
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
42:12
After listening to our recent episode about calls in the forecasting community to cancel him, Richard Hanania offered to appear on the show. Richard and Pratik Chougule discuss: — Cancel culture in the rationalist community — The conservative judiciary and how it could legalize prediction markets — The odds of Vivek Ramaswamy and Donald Trump to se…
…
continue reading
Ben Freeman and MAGA Vacuum return to the show to discuss their observations from the Iowa State Fair and their predictions on who will win the state's GOP caucuses. Timestamps 3:12: Interview begins 3:48: What is the Iowa State Fair and why is it significant for the Republican primaries? 5:31: Trump supporters trolling DeSantis 6:06: Trump's appea…
…
continue reading
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1
Should Richard Hanania Be Canceled from the Political Forecasting Community?
50:40
50:40
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
50:40
Rule3O3 and Pratik Chougule discuss whether the political forecasting community should cancel Richard Hanania in light of his edgy writings on race, sex, and other hot-button issues. Timestamps: 0:53: Jonathan Zubkoff wins the CSPI/Salem Center forecasting tournament 2:58: Manifest conference 5:04: Crime markets on Manifold 6:58: Open invitation to…
…
continue reading
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1
How a Government Shutdown Will Likely Be Averted
41:12
41:12
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
41:12
Intro: Pratik Chougule Part I: Jonathan Zubkoff (Zubby Badger) discusses the possibility of a government shutdown and how it will likely be averted Part II: Mick Bransfield discusses the new judge, David Ezra, who will be overseeing the PredictIt case at the district court Part III: Pratik responds to mailbag from Domer on overconfident marks in po…
…
continue reading
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1
Will Trump Show Up to Any Debate This Year?
46:11
46:11
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
46:11
Intro: Pratik's thoughts on the first Republican presidential debate Part I: Pratik interviews PlayUSA columnist Steve Friess about his reporting on why political prediction markets missed the 2022 Senate races, and why the policymaking community is skeptical of political gambling. Part II: Jonathan Zubkoff (Zubby Badger) discusses the circumstance…
…
continue reading
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1
Will a Fragmented Republican Field Save Trump?
43:36
43:36
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
43:36
Intro: Pratik Chougule discusses a recent Manifold meetup he attended and the importance of attending in-person forecasting community events Part 1: Rule3O3 joins the show for the first time to discuss epistemic humility in political betting and how to realize the promise of political prediction markets. Part 2: Ben Freeman and Pratik Chougule cont…
…
continue reading
Longtime PredictIt trader Ben Freeman argues that the markets are overly pessimistic about Ron DeSantis's odds of winning the Republican nomination and makes the bull case for buying at current prices. 1:23: DeSantis's comments about betting markets on John Stossel's show 6:24: Ben Freeman introduces himself 8:16: Ben's experience as a Trump White …
…
continue reading
Mick Bransfield and Pratik Chougule do a deep dive into the Fifth Circuit's decision to grant PredictIt a preliminary injunction and what it means for traders as well as the broader political betting community. Bransfield and Chougule also speculate on why PredictIt still isn't rolling out new markets. 4:53: Summary of Fifth Circuit ruling 14:51: C…
…
continue reading
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1
CFTC as "Election Cop"; Side bets on DeSantis county wins; Kalshi's role in "killing" PredictIt/Polymarket; mailbag on Kalshi's debt ceiling market
44:38
44:38
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
44:38
Part I (3:46): Adrian Smith responds to CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam's concerns that election markets could turn the CFTC into an "election cop." Part II (27:01): Iabvek and Pratik side bet on whether Ron DeSantis will even win one county in the Republican primaries Part III (36:37): Mick Bransfield discusses whether Kalshi "killed" PredictIt and/or…
…
continue reading
Gaeten Dugas, Iabvek, and Pratik Chougule debate and place side bets on the question of when Ron DeSantis drop out of the race. In part II, Pratik addresses a mailbag question on the question of whether prediction markets and political gamblers have failed to disrupt the political discourse. Timestamps: 5:25: PredictIt's victory at the Fifth Circui…
…
continue reading
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1
Does Political Betting Threaten Democracy? Lessons from the UK
43:00
43:00
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
43:00
The CFTC's review of Kalshi's election contracts has shown that policymakers in America have deep concerns about risk political betting poses to democracy. UK-based political gambler and election compliance specialist Adrian Smith joins the show to discuss what lessons can be drawn from Britain's longstanding, liberal regulations on political betti…
…
continue reading
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1
Another CFTC Review of Kalshi's Election Markets
1:02:38
1:02:38
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
1:02:38
Mick Bransfield and Pratik Chougule do a deep dive into Kalshi's latest attempt at the CFTC to offer election markets. StarSpangledGamblers.com Twitter: @ssgamblersBy Pratik Chougule
…
continue reading
WineMom, Gaeten, and Title Belt Champ The Winner discuss: — Dating advice for political gamblers — Trump's nicknames for DeSantis — When Trump will show up to a Republican debate and who he will attackBy Pratik Chougule
…
continue reading
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1
Will Trump Show Up to the First Debate? + New Markets on PredictIt and the Future of the European Union
52:34
52:34
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
52:34
— Gaeten Dugas and Pratik Chougule debate their side bet on whether Trump will show up to the first Republican debate in August — Abhi and Pratik discuss whether PredictIt will offer new markets and how to trade on this question on Insight Prediction — Atlantic Sentinel editor Nick Ottens explains how countries can leave the European Union and why …
…
continue reading
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1
Odds of Trump Leaving the Race + Spain Prime Minister Elections
53:31
53:31
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
53:31
In part 1, Pratik Chougule and Jason Pipkin discuss the odds that Trump will stop running for the Republican nomination for president before the South Carolina primaries. In part 2, Atlantic Sentinel editor Nick Ottens does a deep dive into Spain's July elections and whether Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez can survive as prime minister. Nick and Prati…
…
continue reading
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1
DeSantis's Weirdness and Why He Is Overpriced
53:13
53:13
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
53:13
Pratik Chougule, TheWinner, and MagaVacuum discuss: — Ron DeSantis's weird behavior, why he's overpriced in the betting markets, and how long to hold short shares. — The right price to pay for Tim Scott and other longshot candidates for the Republican nomination. — Side bets and the future of the political gambling community.…
…
continue reading
— Pratik Chougule on market manipulation and pump-and-dump schemes in political prediction markets — Gaeten Dugas on why he's betting against California Senator Dianne Feinstein resigning this year — Nic Horton assesses the likelihood of an Arkansan vice presidential nominee, discussing the odds on former Governor Asa Hutchinson, Senator Tom Cotton…
…
continue reading
Naman (@nmehndir) and Abhi (@aenews_PI) discuss their side bets on the odds of Russia nuking Ukraine by the end of June as well as the odds of a nuclear explosion by the end of the year. Both debate Pratik on the likelihood of an offensive nuclear war by 2050.By Pratik Chougule
…
continue reading
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1
The Right's Problems with Educated Voters
51:53
51:53
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
51:53
— Pratik Chougule analyzes Victoria University's response to the CFTC. — Gaeten Dugas explains why he's making the largest bet of his career on George Santos not resigning from Congress. — Zeus O'Dea considers why the right is losing educated voters across the western world and whether this reality is being priced in on betting markets.…
…
continue reading
Pratik Chougule provides an update on the ongoing lawsuit between the CFTC and PredictIt now that the Fifth Circuit has rejected the CFTC's motion to dismiss the case and Victoria University has responded to the agency's questions. Zoltar and Fred Norris debate their side bet on whether Fox News will be able to maintain its primetime ratings after …
…
continue reading
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1
Biden’s Cognitive Decline: What Computer Vision Is Telling Us
51:35
51:35
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
51:35
Joe Biden announced his campaign for re-election, but the markets still give him less than an 80% chance of securing the Democratic nomination for president. Perhaps foremost among trader concerns are questions about Biden's health. To investigate the issue, Tessa Barton, a computational photographer, AI Research Scientist, and political gambler, h…
…
continue reading
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1
The Case Against Asa Hutchinson Lottos + Jeremy Corbyn's Potential Comeback
50:28
50:28
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
50:28
As part of our continuing coverage of longshot Republican presidential candidates, Arkansas politics expert Nic Horton joins the show to discuss Asa Hutchinson's presidential bid. Nic explains why Hutchinson probably isn't going to be the longshot that breaks out. In part 2, professional gambler Zeus O'Dea discusses the possibility of a Jeremy Corb…
…
continue reading
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1
Argentina's Upcoming Presidential Elections
52:03
52:03
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
52:03
Argentina's upcoming presidential elections are looking like a volatile and uncertain contest between a number of colorful candidates. Among others: an incumbent with a track record of racist comments overseeing 100%+ inflation, a Harvard Business School grad, and an anarcho-capitalist tantra instructor. Latin America based financial analyst Ian Be…
…
continue reading
![Artwork](/static/images/128pixel.png)
1
2024 Republican Longshots for President + Debt Ceiling Negotiations
42:11
42:11
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
42:11
— Jason Pipkin and Pratik Chougule discuss which longshots for the Republican nomination for president are worth buying — Zubby Badger assesses when Congress and the Biden administration are likely to reach a debt ceiling deal — Casino.org reporter Steve Bittenbender predicts that political gambling deregulation might not happen until the 2028 elec…
…
continue reading