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Will a Fragmented Republican Field Save Trump?

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Manage episode 375421955 series 3366290
Content provided by Alex Keeney. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Alex Keeney or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://player.fm/legal.

Intro: Pratik Chougule discusses a recent Manifold meetup he attended and the importance of attending in-person forecasting community events Part 1: Rule3O3 joins the show for the first time to discuss epistemic humility in political betting and how to realize the promise of political prediction markets.

Part 2: Ben Freeman and Pratik Chougule continue their conversation on 2024 Republican presidential primary. Ben and Pratik discuss whether a fractured Republican field will save Trump again or whether the electorate will rally around an alternative. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces the two segments 1:12: Manifold and the importance of in-person forecasting events 6:34: Rule3O3 intro 8:26: Political prediction market efficiency 10:29: Epistemic humility in prediction markets 13:26: Technical analysis 16:20: Fun in prediction markets 18:43: Ben Freeman on whether a fractured Republican field will save Trump again or whether the electorate will rally around DeSantis 20:43: High-profile Republican endorsements 23:19: Attacks on Trump 27:39: Trump's financial problems 29:41: Will Republicans coalesce around an alternative 33:41: DeSantis's strengths and weaknesses 39:54: Ben's picks on PredictIt 41:57: Pence lottos

  continue reading

249 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 375421955 series 3366290
Content provided by Alex Keeney. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Alex Keeney or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://player.fm/legal.

Intro: Pratik Chougule discusses a recent Manifold meetup he attended and the importance of attending in-person forecasting community events Part 1: Rule3O3 joins the show for the first time to discuss epistemic humility in political betting and how to realize the promise of political prediction markets.

Part 2: Ben Freeman and Pratik Chougule continue their conversation on 2024 Republican presidential primary. Ben and Pratik discuss whether a fractured Republican field will save Trump again or whether the electorate will rally around an alternative. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces the two segments 1:12: Manifold and the importance of in-person forecasting events 6:34: Rule3O3 intro 8:26: Political prediction market efficiency 10:29: Epistemic humility in prediction markets 13:26: Technical analysis 16:20: Fun in prediction markets 18:43: Ben Freeman on whether a fractured Republican field will save Trump again or whether the electorate will rally around DeSantis 20:43: High-profile Republican endorsements 23:19: Attacks on Trump 27:39: Trump's financial problems 29:41: Will Republicans coalesce around an alternative 33:41: DeSantis's strengths and weaknesses 39:54: Ben's picks on PredictIt 41:57: Pence lottos

  continue reading

249 episodes

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