3-Part Episode Part I: Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule), SSG TItle Belt Champ Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1), and Title Belt Challenger Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) debate whether or not Trump cares about qualifications in his VP decision, or whether it will come down to politics. Part II: Doug Campbell (@tradeandmoney) analyzes how he won the 2023 Astral Cod…

Pratik Chougule previews Manifest 2024. Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1) and Alex Chan (@ianlazaran) negotiate a side bet on whether Trump will select Tim Scott, Doug Burgum, or Marco Rubio as his running mate. They discuss how Trump will make the decision and when he'll announce it. Timestamps 0:09: Pratik introduces segment on Trump VP selection 1:44:…

The CFTC has proposed a new rule that would restrict betting on election markets. Pratik Chougule and Mick Bransfield do a deep dive into the CFTC's deliberations. Timestamps 0:00: Introduction 6:11: Interview with Bransfield begins 8:50: CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam is spending political capital on the issue 10:14: What is rulemaking? 11:24: Behnam…

London-based political gambler Pip Moss joins SSG to discuss Rishi Sunak's political future. Timestamps 4:03: Interview with Pip begins 4:11: Pip's background 11:02: What went wrong for Sunak? 21:35: How election timing is determined in UK 26:00: When an election can constitutionally be held 27:22: Current market prices on timing of UK election 31:…

Every year, Star Spangled Gamblers hosts the Golden Modelos—an awards show for the best and worst of political gambling in the previous year. Abhi Kylasa (AENews) and Vanilla Vice return to the show to discuss which nominees should make the ballot. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces the Golden Modelos and why they matter 5:56: Vice introduces the G…

Hemma Kilawan, a member of the SSG team, analyzes whether and when Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce will get engaged. Timestamps 0:40: Pratik explains why SSG is covering Taylor Swift markets and how they relate to political gambling 3:50: Pratik thanks a Patreon sponsor and why his contribution is important 8:15: Interview with Hemma begins 9:28: Hem…

Doug Campbell returns to SSG to provide an update on the war in Ukraine. Doug is the founder and CEO of Insight Prediction, an expert on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and a whale trader himself. Doug argues that the war has become a stalemate and provides advice on how to trade on this reality. 0:42: Doug's background 0:52: Doug's SSG interview abou…

Saul Munn is one of the world's leading experts on building the forecasting community. He is the Co-Founder of Optic Forecasting and the Lead Organizer of the Manifest conference. In Part 1, Saul joins the show to discuss which communities comprise the emerging forecasting community. In Part 2, Brian Darling, former counsel to Senator Rand Paul, re…

Part 1: Washington-based lobbyist and former Rand Paul counsel Brian Darling returns to the show to discuss Trump's VP selection. Part 2: Mick Bransfield, an expert on prediction market regulation, returns to discuss reports that PredictIt is pursuing a settlement with the CFTC. 0:57: Current market odds on Republican VP nominee 3:44: Pratik introd…

Dr. Lucas (@Talophex) returns for a deep dive into Donald Trump's health and how it should inform a bet on whether he'll be elected president. Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers 0:00: Pratik introduces the episode 1:17: Discoloration of Trump's hand and Trump's alleged body odor 4:17: Interview begins 5:46: Trump's coronary artery…

While Trump appears to hold a commanding lead heading in the Iowa caucuses, second place remains uncertain. Ben Freeman challenges The Winner for the SSG title belt on the question of who will perform better in the Iowa caucuses: Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley. Plus, Pratik Chougule explains the nomination process for the 2024 Golden Modelos. 0:00: Pr…

Prediction market enthusiast and effective altruist Nathan Young (@nathanpmyoung) joins the show to discuss the relation of prediction markets and AI. He also discusses Polymarket's market on whether an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize before August and explains why it's unlikely to happen. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 4:00: Interview …

Four Part Episode Part 1: Dr. Lucas (@talophex) on Biden's health Part 2: The Winner (@thewinner2875) and Ben Freeman (@benwfreeman1) on whether Vivek Ramaswamy is worth buying as a hedge Part 3: Mick Bransfield (@mickbransfield) on the CFTC's decision to reject Kalshi's election contracts Part 4: Nathan Young (@nathanpyoung) on religion and predic…

Three-Part Episode In Part I, Ben Freeman and SSG Title Belt Champion The Winner review the DeSantis-Newsom debate and discuss whether DeSantis can make a comeback. In Part II, PlayUSA columnist Steve Friess offers lessons on what the political betting community can learn from how sports betting became mainstream. In Part III, Mick Bransfield provi…

Three-part episode: (1) Dr. Lucas—the "surgeon general of prediction market Twitter"—joins to discuss Mitch McConnell's health. Why did he "freeze" in public multiple times? Did the Congressional physician cover up his actual condition? (2) Rule3O3 discusses how large donors approach their political contributions (3) Jonathan Zubkoff (@zubbybadger)…

Colombia-based trader Ian Bezek (@irbezek) returns to the show to offer some final thoughts on the close and uncertain presidential race in Argentina. 1:32: Ian's thoughts on the final debate between Javier Milei and Sergio Massa 2:10: Ian's advice on Polymarket's margin market 5:20: Interview begins 6:06: Massa's backround 7:43: Massa's political …

Eurasia expert Kristofer Harrison makes the case for why the odds of an invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan are much higher than the market price on Polymarket. 3:54: Interview with Harrison begins 5:06: Do hedge funds use political betting insights? 7:10: Background on Armenia and Azerbaijan 7:56: Why there are tensions between Armenia and Azerbaija…

On the eve of the Kentucky governor's election, a new poll by Emerson suggests that the race could be much closer than initially expected. SSG Title Belt Champion TheWinner (@thewinner2875) and Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) join the show to make their final predictions. Although they generally agree in their analyses, they settle on a side bet and a chall…

3-Part Episode — Keendawg returns to discuss why Andy Beshear, Kentucky's Democratic Governor, is favored for re-election, but why lottos on his Republican challenger might be a good bet — Pratik reports on new evidence that Kalshi was behind the CFTC's enforcement action against Polymarket — MagaVacuum explains how to gain a betting edge while tra…

After another review with a 30-day public comment period, the CFTC rejected Kalshi's proposal to offer election contracts. Mick Bransfield and Pratik Chougule do a deep dive into the outpouring of public comments that led to the CFTC's decision. 0:00: Introduction begins 2:14: Kalshi's incentives and how they shape its strategy toward political bet…

After listening to our recent episode about calls in the forecasting community to cancel him, Richard Hanania offered to appear on the show. Richard and Pratik Chougule discuss: — Cancel culture in the rationalist community — The conservative judiciary and how it could legalize prediction markets — The odds of Vivek Ramaswamy and Donald Trump to se…

Ben Freeman and MAGA Vacuum return to the show to discuss their observations from the Iowa State Fair and their predictions on who will win the state's GOP caucuses. Timestamps 3:12: Interview begins 3:48: What is the Iowa State Fair and why is it significant for the Republican primaries? 5:31: Trump supporters trolling DeSantis 6:06: Trump's appea…

Rule3O3 and Pratik Chougule discuss whether the political forecasting community should cancel Richard Hanania in light of his edgy writings on race, sex, and other hot-button issues. Timestamps: 0:53: Jonathan Zubkoff wins the CSPI/Salem Center forecasting tournament 2:58: Manifest conference 5:04: Crime markets on Manifold 6:58: Open invitation to…

Intro: Pratik Chougule Part I: Jonathan Zubkoff (Zubby Badger) discusses the possibility of a government shutdown and how it will likely be averted Part II: Mick Bransfield discusses the new judge, David Ezra, who will be overseeing the PredictIt case at the district court Part III: Pratik responds to mailbag from Domer on overconfident marks in po…

Intro: Pratik's thoughts on the first Republican presidential debate Part I: Pratik interviews PlayUSA columnist Steve Friess about his reporting on why political prediction markets missed the 2022 Senate races, and why the policymaking community is skeptical of political gambling. Part II: Jonathan Zubkoff (Zubby Badger) discusses the circumstance…

Intro: Pratik Chougule discusses a recent Manifold meetup he attended and the importance of attending in-person forecasting community events Part 1: Rule3O3 joins the show for the first time to discuss epistemic humility in political betting and how to realize the promise of political prediction markets. Part 2: Ben Freeman and Pratik Chougule cont…

Longtime PredictIt trader Ben Freeman argues that the markets are overly pessimistic about Ron DeSantis's odds of winning the Republican nomination and makes the bull case for buying at current prices. 1:23: DeSantis's comments about betting markets on John Stossel's show 6:24: Ben Freeman introduces himself 8:16: Ben's experience as a Trump White …

Mick Bransfield and Pratik Chougule do a deep dive into the Fifth Circuit's decision to grant PredictIt a preliminary injunction and what it means for traders as well as the broader political betting community. Bransfield and Chougule also speculate on why PredictIt still isn't rolling out new markets. 4:53: Summary of Fifth Circuit ruling 14:51: C…

Part I (3:46): Adrian Smith responds to CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam's concerns that election markets could turn the CFTC into an "election cop." Part II (27:01): Iabvek and Pratik side bet on whether Ron DeSantis will even win one county in the Republican primaries Part III (36:37): Mick Bransfield discusses whether Kalshi "killed" PredictIt and/or…

Gaeten Dugas, Iabvek, and Pratik Chougule debate and place side bets on the question of when Ron DeSantis drop out of the race. In part II, Pratik addresses a mailbag question on the question of whether prediction markets and political gamblers have failed to disrupt the political discourse. Timestamps: 5:25: PredictIt's victory at the Fifth Circui…

The CFTC's review of Kalshi's election contracts has shown that policymakers in America have deep concerns about risk political betting poses to democracy. UK-based political gambler and election compliance specialist Adrian Smith joins the show to discuss what lessons can be drawn from Britain's longstanding, liberal regulations on political betti…

Mick Bransfield and Pratik Chougule do a deep dive into Kalshi's latest attempt at the CFTC to offer election markets. StarSpangledGamblers.com Twitter: @ssgamblersBy Pratik Chougule

WineMom, Gaeten, and Title Belt Champ The Winner discuss: — Dating advice for political gamblers — Trump's nicknames for DeSantis — When Trump will show up to a Republican debate and who he will attackBy Pratik Chougule

— Gaeten Dugas and Pratik Chougule debate their side bet on whether Trump will show up to the first Republican debate in August — Abhi and Pratik discuss whether PredictIt will offer new markets and how to trade on this question on Insight Prediction — Atlantic Sentinel editor Nick Ottens explains how countries can leave the European Union and why …

In part 1, Pratik Chougule and Jason Pipkin discuss the odds that Trump will stop running for the Republican nomination for president before the South Carolina primaries. In part 2, Atlantic Sentinel editor Nick Ottens does a deep dive into Spain's July elections and whether Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez can survive as prime minister. Nick and Prati…

Pratik Chougule, TheWinner, and MagaVacuum discuss: — Ron DeSantis's weird behavior, why he's overpriced in the betting markets, and how long to hold short shares. — The right price to pay for Tim Scott and other longshot candidates for the Republican nomination. — Side bets and the future of the political gambling community.…

— Pratik Chougule on market manipulation and pump-and-dump schemes in political prediction markets — Gaeten Dugas on why he's betting against California Senator Dianne Feinstein resigning this year — Nic Horton assesses the likelihood of an Arkansan vice presidential nominee, discussing the odds on former Governor Asa Hutchinson, Senator Tom Cotton…

Naman (@nmehndir) and Abhi (@aenews_PI) discuss their side bets on the odds of Russia nuking Ukraine by the end of June as well as the odds of a nuclear explosion by the end of the year. Both debate Pratik on the likelihood of an offensive nuclear war by 2050.By Pratik Chougule

— Pratik Chougule analyzes Victoria University's response to the CFTC. — Gaeten Dugas explains why he's making the largest bet of his career on George Santos not resigning from Congress. — Zeus O'Dea considers why the right is losing educated voters across the western world and whether this reality is being priced in on betting markets.…

Pratik Chougule provides an update on the ongoing lawsuit between the CFTC and PredictIt now that the Fifth Circuit has rejected the CFTC's motion to dismiss the case and Victoria University has responded to the agency's questions. Zoltar and Fred Norris debate their side bet on whether Fox News will be able to maintain its primetime ratings after …

Joe Biden announced his campaign for re-election, but the markets still give him less than an 80% chance of securing the Democratic nomination for president. Perhaps foremost among trader concerns are questions about Biden's health. To investigate the issue, Tessa Barton, a computational photographer, AI Research Scientist, and political gambler, h…

As part of our continuing coverage of longshot Republican presidential candidates, Arkansas politics expert Nic Horton joins the show to discuss Asa Hutchinson's presidential bid. Nic explains why Hutchinson probably isn't going to be the longshot that breaks out. In part 2, professional gambler Zeus O'Dea discusses the possibility of a Jeremy Corb…

Argentina's upcoming presidential elections are looking like a volatile and uncertain contest between a number of colorful candidates. Among others: an incumbent with a track record of racist comments overseeing 100%+ inflation, a Harvard Business School grad, and an anarcho-capitalist tantra instructor. Latin America based financial analyst Ian Be…

— Jason Pipkin and Pratik Chougule discuss which longshots for the Republican nomination for president are worth buying — Zubby Badger assesses when Congress and the Biden administration are likely to reach a debt ceiling deal — Casino.org reporter Steve Bittenbender predicts that political gambling deregulation might not happen until the 2028 elec…

— Jason Pipkin on how to bet on the fallout from Trump's New York indictment — Zubby Badger on the future of Kalshi, why Julie Su's nomination for Secretary of Labor is in trouble, and how to make money from confirmation markets. — Gaeten Dugas and Zoltar wrap up Golden Modelos coverage with an award for 2022 Trader of the Year…

Eli Braden and Pratik do a deep dive on Republican candidate for president Vivek Ramaswamy. They discuss how to weigh his odds as a prospective nominee and his future in conservative politics.By Pratik Chougule

Elections in countries outside the United States provide some of the most lucrative opportunities in political gambling. The fact that traders know little about these countries and information is hard to track down creates market distortions that saavy traders know how to exploit. In this episode, Pratik interviews three traders—Naman Mehndiratta, …

Since August 2022, when the CFTC revoked PredictIt's no-action letter, the agency has refused to outline the precise reasons why it suddenly seeks to shut down the site. Facing tough questions from the judges on the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals, the CFTC finally laid out its case in a filing to the court. Casino.com reporter Steve Bittenbender and …

McClatchy reporter Dave Catanese returns to the show. Dave has been following closely Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman's health issues and the seeming cover-up by Fetterman and his staff. Dave and Pratik discuss the likelihood that he'll resign from the Senate this year. In part 2, Zoltar and Gaeten award the Golden Modelos Worst Pump of the Yea…

Both the betting markets and the conventional wisdom believe Ron DeSantis is running for president and that an announcement may be imminent. Trader and political gambling researcher MagaVacuum disagrees, arguing that DeSantis will ultimately sit this cycle out. Maga challenged Title Belt holder TheWinner2875 to a $250 bet that DeSantis won't announ…