Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and the forces shaping movements in Australian and global markets in the days ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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Monday 26th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Even though Fed speakers positioned markets to expect gradual and methodical cuts late last week, it was a very different language used by Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday. NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil to discuss what was…
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Weekend Edition: A world of difference - RBNZ v RBA
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Friday 16th August 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. On the face of it you’d wonder why central banks in New Zealand and Australia have taken such different paths when it comes to fighting inflation. They are both western economies that wer…
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Friday 23rd August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields are higher, the dollar has fallen and US equities are lower. Markets have switched direction over the last 24 hours. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there are three reasons for the reversal – the latest PMI data, central bank spea…
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Thursday 22nd August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Today as the US dollar weakens again, against a rising Yen, Phil asks JBWere’s Sally Auld to explain the impact rates differentials are having on the Japanese carry trade. The FOMC minutes this morning came as close as they possibl…
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Wednesday 21st August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been another quiet session, with stocks taking a breather after an 8-day rally, with volumes for the S&P 25% below its 20-day average. Bond yields have pushed lower, which NAB’s Ken Crompton says is largely a response to Cana…
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Tuesday 20th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB We are in the thick of the US and European holiday season, mixed with a dearth of data. Hence, shares are pushing higher, presumably on the hope of greater reassurance around rate cuts from the Fed at Jackson Hole. NAB’s Gavin Frien…
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Monday 19th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Central bankers get together for the glitzy proceedings of the Jackson Hole Symposium this week. Will Jerome Powell use it s a springboard for more advice on how and when the Fed will cut rates? Probably not, says NAB’s Rodrigo Catri…
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Weekend Edition: Is there too much state debt?
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Friday 16th August 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. A report last week from S&P Global highlights that the debt held by Australian states could exceed $600 billion later this year. Rebecca Hrvatin joins Phil to discuss this rise in debt an…
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Friday 16th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US retail sales numbers out yesterday showed surprisingly strong spending in July. That’s pushed equities markedly higher. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says bond yields are up as markets see this retail strength as a sign that the US is …
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Thursday 15th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US shares moved up slightly – except for the Russell 2000 - and bond yields fell a little, after the release of the US Core CPI print overnight. The response was muted because the data came in pretty much as expected. It was anyone…
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Wednesday 14th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Softer than expected producer prices in the US has convinced the markets that the Fed will be ready to cut in September. NAB’s Skye Masters says in an environment where decisions by central banks are so data dependent we are seein…
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Markets wait calmly for US inflation data
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Tuesday 13th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US shares and bond markets have remained relatively calm, as we await the latest inflation data from the US (PPI today, CPI tomorrow). There’s plenty of data flow this week, says NAB’s Taylor Nugent, but there’s been nothing so far …
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Monday 11th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Remember when Pauk Keating talked about the recession we had to have? Markets thought the US was heading the same way last week, but went off the idea as the week progressed. Thoughts of an emergency rate cut were quickly dismissed, …
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Weekend Edition: A bright future for Indigenous businesses
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Friday 9th August 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. Friday (Aug 9th) is the United Nations' International Day of the World's Indigenous Peoples. To celebrate, the Morning Call looks at how Australia is witnessing a growth in companies estab…
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Markets turn, just on weekly jobless numbers?
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Friday 9th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was a sharp turnaround in US equities, with the S&P closing up 2.3%. It seems a lot of weight has been put behind the weekly jobless claims number, which is not normally a data point that would drive markets. But in this climate…
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Thursday 8th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There is still a lot of volatility around. US shares started the session well, with strong signs that risk appetite was improving. Then came a weak response to a a $42 billion 10-year bond auction. That made markets nervous and US e…
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Wednesday 7th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Is it feasible to expect a sharp recovery from one data set, after the extreme response to last week’s US jobs data? Markets bounced back sharply today, pushing US yields higher, strengthening the dollar and pushing shares back up.…
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Tuesday 6th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US shares took more of a hammering on Monday, although an upside surprise on the Services ISM read stopped things spiralling from bad to worse. Phil talks to NAB’s Tapas Strickland about another day of volatile market action, particu…
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Monday 5th August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was a strong response to the weaker than expected US payrolls numbers on Friday, not on the heals of weak manufacturing data. Markets will be sensitive to the Services today, in case it adds another blow to US growth and fuels m…
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Weekend Edition: Well off track for Net Zero
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Friday 2nd August 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. The latest Bloomberg New Energy Outlook seems to show that globally we are way off the mark when it comes to reaching Net Zero by 2050. Instead, the report suggests we could still be pumpi…
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BoE boldly goes where the Fed feared to tread
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Friday 2nd August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US share market has taken a bit of a beating after US manufacturing numbers came in a lot softer than expected. It was another sign of a US slow down that has some clearly wondering whether the Fed will cut more this year. There i…
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Fed holds, BoJ lifts, BoE set to cut. Shares go crazy.
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Thursday 1st August 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a busy session, with US shares shooting higher as the Fe keeps rates on hold but the market reading the fed’s commentary of a September cut even more likely. During the press conference Jerome Powell basically said it was …
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When it rains it pours: Aussie inflation, Japan’s rate decision. Microsoft earnings
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Wednesday 31st July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s a packed episode of The Morning Call today as Phil gets NAB’s Ray Attrill to take us through the latest GDP and inflation data from Europe, jobs data from the US and, from China, the Politburo’s promise to jump into action and …
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Tuesday 30th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a quiet session, with shares and bond markets moving very little, as we await the Fed and some high-profile earnings results. We’ve seen very tight trading ranges, says NABs Skye Masters on today’s podcast. The mood music th…
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A big week for jobs, inflation, earnings and banks
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Monday 29th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Get ready for a busy week, with US jobs umbers, Australian inflation, three ig earnings results from US tech giants; and the Fed meets, so does the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says one will stay on hold,…
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Weekend Edition: Japan’s Inflation Revolution
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Friday 26th July 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. Things are changing in Japan. After decades of not much happening, suddenly everything is happening. Core inflation is up to 2.6%, the Yen is the weakest in a long time, the stock market ha…
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US Goldilocks again, Germany Brothers Grimm
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Friday 26th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A sharp turnaround in US optimism it seems, with this week’s disappointing PMIs easily overwritten by an upside surprise on GDP. Jobless claims were also down a little. The response – rising equities and falling Treasury yields. Phil a…
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Tech stocks tumble, PMIs weak, Dudley warns recession
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Thursday 25th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bill Dudey, former NY Fed Governor, now Bloomberg pundit, has said the FOMC needs to cut rates next week and it might already be too late to avoid a recession. NAB’s Ken Crompton says this comes from a man who had advocated staying h…
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Markets cautious in the heart of earnings season
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Wednesday 24th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Alphabet and Tesla both reported better than expected headline revenue numbers after the US close, but the mood is still cautious. The S&P, Dow and NASDAQ all closed in the red, but a 1% rise in the Russell 2000. JB Were’s Sally Aul…
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Tuesday 23rd July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB If markets were being driven by Trump-trade, the thought that he might have a more credible contender hasn’t had much impact. But what were we expecting? Phil talks to NAB’s Taylor Nugent about whether, beyond bitcoin, the Trump-trade…
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Monday 22nd July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The breaking news this morning is that Joe Biden is stepping down from the US Presidential race and endorsing Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate. Phil asks whether they’ll be a market response, or have we already been seeing it.…
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Weekend Edition: Investing on the Road to Net Zero – Why Aren’t We Leading?
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Friday 19th July 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. Much of the world is on the road to achieving to net zero by 2050, a target which gets more challenging as each year passes. Australia is on the right path, but it isn’t leading the pack. W…
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Are equity markets looking more at a downturn than rate cuts?
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Friday 19th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US equity markets fell sharply overnight. It’s not just tech stocks feeling the hurt, the weakness is spread more broadly than that, implying that concerns of an economic slowdown are outweighing the benefits of rate cuts. Rate cuts co…
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Pre-Trump Trade Battles and Currency Fears
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Thursday 18th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It doesn’t take Donald Trump to launch a trade war with China. The Biden administration has threatened further limits on microchip exports to China, which hit tech stocks heavily in the US. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says currencies, meanwh…
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US retail runs hot and inflation day for many
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Wednesday 17th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US retail numbers came in stronger than expected. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether this could delay any moves by the Fed? Certainly, equity markets ae banking on cuts coming soon, with the rotation in stocks continuing and anothe…
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Powell eyes labour market, equity markets eye Trump friendly stocks
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Tuesday 16th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Equity markets are showing some adjustment to the prospect of a Trump presidency, with oil producers and gun makers doing well, renewables falling and Bitcoin up almost 6% today. Bond markets are still more responsive to Fed-speak. NA…
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Is Trump now a shoo-in for the Presidency?
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Monday 15th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The assassination attempt against Donald Trump on Saturday is likely to bolster his support, ahead of his GOP official nomination this week. NAB’s Tapas Strickland tells Phil that betting markets have shifted further in favour of a Rep…
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Weekend Edition - 75 percent: The New Normal for Office Workers?
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Friday 12th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB NAB has been looking at a variety of high frequency data sources to see how quickly workers are returning to the office. In this edition NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the trend seems to have stalled at 75% of pre-COVID levels. Credit ana…
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Friday 12th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Big market moves to a softer than expected CPI read in the US overnight. Bond yields are lower, the US dollar is lower and a big response in equity markets. Basically tech stocks have been hit hard, whilst industrials have climbed. Rot…
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Thursday 11th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The drive for Joe Biden to step aside continues to dominate the news cycle in America, with actor George Clooney, who held a fundraiser for the President only a month ago, now calling for him to step aside for someone younger. Incide…
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Powell says labour market is no longer an inflationary pressure
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Wednesday 10th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Jerome Powell has been speaking to the US congress and says the labour market is no longer an inflationary pressure. So, what does that mean for the timing of rate cuts? NAB’s Skye Masters says there hasn’t been too much change in e…
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Tuesday 9th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a lacklustre day for markets. Equities have moved a little ahead of earnings season which kicks off in earnest later in the week. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk about the new French government, which will take some tim…
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Monday 8th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB France looks like it won’t be veering sharply to the right after a. The exit poll out this morning has Marine Le Pen’s party in third place, so it looks likely the country is heading for a hung parliament. Phil talks to NAB’s Tapas Stri…
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Weekend Edition: More on Australia’s House Price Quandary
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Friday 6th July 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. In June, according to PropTrack, Australia’s home prices hit new highs, rising for the 18th consecutive month. But, as Eleanor Creagh, senior economist at PropTrack explains, the growth is f…
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Friday 5th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There are three big political stories today. First, the French election round two could still deliver a majority for Marine LePen’s party. But NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets are not viewing that as such an alarming outcome, saying ther…
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Weaker Services data pushes equities higher and bond yields lower
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Thursday 4th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The S&P hit new highs as bond yields fell overnight. Markets clearly thought the latest ISM Services number, which came in surprisingly weak, is just the sort of slowdown indicator that will encourage the Fed to act sooner rather than…
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What did Powell say to spur on US equity markets?
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Wednesday 3rd July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US shares rallied late in the session, on the back of comments from Jerome Powell. So what did he say? That’s the first question Phil puts to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril on this morning’s podcast. Meanwhile, Europe's inflation barely moved …
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Yields push higher still, France’s political concerns ease, one more reason for BoJ to lift rates
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Tuesday 2nd July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Treasury yields continue to rise. NAB’s Syke Masters says here are a range of factors at play ,but one is the seeming lack of concern on both sides of politics to address the US government’s rising deficit. In Europe concerns about a N…
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Monday 1st July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s the first day of the third quarter. The unsurprising news from French exit-polls this morning shows a clear win for Le Pen’s National Rally party, securing a third of the votes. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says markets have already priced-…
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Weekend Edition: The Art and Science of Fixed Income. Without the straight lines.
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Friday 28th June 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. Could central banks push their timing back even further? Emma Lawson says we can’t ignore how economies are slowing, so there’s every chance that market pricing for cuts could move forward.…
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