Investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today’s major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future. Topics covered: Finance, Venture Capital, Tech, AI, Crypto, and Industry Cycles The Riff is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. Learn more: turpentine.co
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The Diff is a newsletter exploring the technologies, companies, and trends that are making the future high-variance. Posts range from in-depth company profiles, applied financial theory, strategy breakdowns and macroeconomics.
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You’ll hear consequential ideas here first, and in the mainstream months later. Upstream is a curated nexus feed from the Turpentine podcast network, bringing you expert-level conversations hosted by some of the most compelling thinkers in the world including Noah Smith, Samo Burja, Byrne Hobart, Erik Torenberg, and Nathan Labenz. Guests include Marc Andreessen, Balaji Srinivasan, Dario Amodei, Brian Armstrong, David Sacks, Sam Harris, Katherine Boyle, Curtis Yarvin, and many more unmissable ...
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We live in a world where our civilization and daily lives depend upon institutions, infrastructure, and technological substrates that are _complicated_ but not _unknowable_. Join Patrick McKenzie (patio11) as he discusses how decisions, technology, culture, and incentives shape our finance, technology, government, and more, with the people who built (and build) those Complex Systems.
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Patrick Blumenthal (@PatrickJBlum) interviews some of the world's leading economists, political scientists, and philosophers to discuss their ideas and what they mean for society, technology, and the economy.
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A podcast by 1517 Fund exploring subversive intellectuals, entrepreneurs, and thinkers across society.
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E56: AI Agents are Coming; China’s Internet; Google Wants to Win
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This week, Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart discuss AI's economic implications, the rise of passive investing, gambling markets, and Warren Buffett's early investment tactics, examining how technological advancements shape economic metrics, market dynamics, and industry shifts. --- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https:/…
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E99: This Era’s Inflection Points with Byrne Hobart | DOGE, Elon, OpenAI
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This week on Upstream, Byrne Hobart discusses the potential impacts of the Department of Government Efficiency, insights from leaked OpenAI emails, Trump's and Elon Musk's policies and their economic implications, and the future of prediction markets in organizational decision-making. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/279fae…
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How we tax property, with Lars Doucet
1:10:28
1:10:28
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Lars Doucet, the author of Land is a Big Deal, discuss how cities determine your property's value and collect taxes. They explore how assessment offices juggle political pressures, statistical models, and technological tools while trying to maintain equity across millions of properties. They also cove…
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E102: America’s Culture of Winning w/ Alex Karp and Jacob Helberg
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Alex Karp, CEO of Palantir, and Jacob Helberg, discuss AI-enabled warfare, the importance of taking clear ethical stances, the evolution of Silicon Valley culture, and the integration of tech innovation into governmental defense systems at the Hill and Valley Forum in Washington, DC. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: ht…
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E101: Wokeism & Class w/ David Sacks, Trump’s AI Czar [Upstream Archive]
1:19:08
1:19:08
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In this 2023 conversation between Erik Torenberg and David Sacks, they discuss David’s new role as Donald Trump's AI and crypto czar, the shift towards censorship and wokeness in Silicon Valley, particularly at companies like PayPal and Twitter, and the broader implications for free speech, public debate, and the future of liberalism. For full show…
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) offers a reading of his viral essay, "The optimal amount of fraud is non-zero" with extensive live commentary. Patrick examines payment systems, benefits programs, and pandemic-era policies, to uncover how businesses and governments often intentionally accept some level of fraud as a cost of doing busines…
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E100: Marc Andreessen: How 2016 Broke My Mental Model of the World
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Following Marc’s great discussion with Joe Rogan, we wanted to share our interview with Marc Andreessen, who recounts his intellectual evolution and his quest to discover how the world works from 2016 onwards. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/09f4b7dc-5fa8-4e0e-a2aa-87344c3db84b — 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick l…
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E98: Solving America’s Problems with Joe Lonsdale
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This week on Upstream, we’re releasing a conversation between Erik Torenberg and Joe Lonsdale, co-founder of Palantir and founder of the Cicero Institute, discusses his solutions for American healthcare, education, crime, homelessness, and inequality, emphasizing the need for accountability and nonpartisan approaches. For full show notes, visit: ht…
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E97: Combining Biology and AI w/ Michael Levin and Dr. Leo Pio Lopez
1:15:42
1:15:42
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This week we’re releasing an episode from the Cognitive Revolution, Nathan Labenz interviews Professor Michael Levin and Dr. Leo Pio Lopez about their groundbreaking research integrating multiple biological datasets using advanced AI techniques to predict new disease links, and discusses broader implications for AI in biology and future technologie…
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AI, poker, and mind games, with Max Chiswick
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Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Max Chiswick, a former professional poker player turned AI educator, to explore how poker intersects with decision making. They discuss how the online poker boom created unprecedented opportunities to study decision-making at scale and how computational advances have transformed both the game's theory and pra…
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E96: Rudyard Lynch and Samo Burja Talk The Left’s Future and Problems with Modernity
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Today on Upstream, Rudyard Lynch and Samo Burja discuss the aftermath of the U.S. presidential election, the decline of French influence in Africa, the psychology of modernity, and the potential future of free versus controlled internet. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/d3195f8d-9dc3-4891-83d6-3354a83efbe9 — 📰Be notified ea…
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E55: Futarchy, Elon, and Gut Decisions in Business
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This week, Erik and Byrne discuss the impact of technological change on markets, debate the feasibility of Argentine-style economic policies in the U.S., discuss government efficiency, payroll costs, and political dynamics, including the potential economic effects of a Trump administration and strategies of figures like Elon Musk and Sam Altman. Fo…
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E95: Trump’s Potential Transportation Secretary on Growing Uber | Emil Michael
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Emil Michael, formerly the Chief Business Officer of Uber, talked to Erik Torenberg and Jesse Genet about the most intense moments during Uber's meteoric rise. Its been reported that he's on the short list of Trump's picks for US Secretary of Transportation. For full shownotes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/f213f7ab-3627-4d15-b151-0238f9ebd1…
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E94: Best of: AGI | Dario Amodei / Balaji Srinivasan / Marc Andreessen / Samo Burja / Michael Levin
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This week, we’re featuring discussions with Dario Amodei, Balaji Srinivasan, Marc Andreessen, Michael Levin, and Samo Burja on AGI scaling laws, AI safety, and AI development, exploring themes such as the evolution of AI, economic implications, and philosophical aspects of intelligence. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/9192…
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Boom, busts, and long term progress with Byrne Hobart
1:43:52
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By popular demand, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Byrne Hobart for a 3rd conversation to discuss Byrne’s book "Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation." They explore how periods of irrational market enthusiasm often create lasting value despite their painful endings. Using examples from the 1990s fiber optic boom that enabled modern stream…
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On this week’s episode of The Riff, explore the impact of technological change on markets and businesses, discussing economic bubbles, the future of AI, the post-election political landscape, and Byrne's upcoming book Boom, which examines the role of bubbles in infrastructure development. For full shownotes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/449…
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E93: How Trump and Elon Could Rebuild the US Government
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In this episode of Upstream, Samo Burja and Erik Torenberg discuss how Trump's victory signals a new alliance between right-wing politics and tech industry leaders like Elon Musk while exploring the challenges and opportunities of reforming government institutions through technological innovation. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com…
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E53: Election Analysis, Heresy, and Real Estate
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This week, Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart explore the evolving landscape of heretical ideas, election dynamics, AI and crypto’s market impacts, prediction markets, the shifting Overton window, contrarian perspectives, and trends in housing and smaller social networks. For full shownotes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/77be6b84-0f55-4dcc-9dd1…
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Erik Torenberg, the founder of Turpentine, to discuss the fundamentals of money movement and banking systems. Patrick breaks down how banks facilitate transfers through correspondent accounts and clearinghouses, explaining the evolution from physical check movement to digitization. They cover…
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E92: Curtis Yarvin’s Pre-Election Advice to Elon Musk
1:43:33
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In this episode, Erik and Yarvin discuss media, power, and what Elon should do with Twitter. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/b9c0012c-979b-441e-9fb3-6394bef6a7ad — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess — RECOMMENDED PODCAST: 🎙️Moment of Zen Every week, Erik To…
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E91: Why We Do Philosophy w/ Agnes Callard
1:21:49
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In this episode, Erik sits down with Agnes Callard, a philosopher and essayist who specializes in ancient philosophy, ethics, and Socratic communication. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/cee0a35b-4a10-4c3a-a988-7d9b3d7b7db4 — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveacc…
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E52: How Tech Journalism Works w/ Patrick McKenzie
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In this special episode of The Riff, Erik Torenberg and Patrick McKenzie explore the evolving landscape of tech journalism, media narratives about the tech industry, and how the industry is increasingly telling its own story. For full shownotes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/2dab4f2e-f8b1-410b-9bc4-b4a9b137c22f 📰Be notified early when Turpen…
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From molecule to medicine, with Ross Rheingans-Yoo
1:28:07
1:28:07
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Ross Rheingans-Yoo to discuss drug development and clinical trials. Ross breaks down how drugs progress from academic research through FDA approval, the challenging economics, and the many systemic inefficiencies in the current approval process. Patrick and Ross discuss historical cases like …
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E90: Elites, Institutions, and Trump with Richard Hanania
1:19:43
1:19:43
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Richard Hanania joins Erik Torenberg to discuss his upcoming book on elite human capital, the future of American politics, and his evolving views on culture war issues. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/af273f63-9f1b-49e1-8fed-28296237498b — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.…
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Tools, Agents, Interfaces, and Synthetic Luck: AI Interaction Models
12:36
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Tools, Agents, Interfaces, and Synthetic Luck: AI Interaction Models (06:40) - Lyft Got Fined For Telling the Truth and is Now Compelled to Lie to Drivers (09:59) - Ozempic and Signaling (10…
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E89: Economics as a Science w/ Noah Smith
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Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg tackle the shift in economic research from empirical studies to "big think" theories, critically examine Acemoglu's work on institutions and AI's impact on jobs, and debate the future of economics as a science. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/d1548747-43db-4b71-b0a8-af285d3deafd — 📰Be notified…
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Picking Uncle Sam's pocket, with Jetson Leder-Luis
1:19:03
1:19:03
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by economist and fraud researcher Professor Jetson Luis-Leder to examine the systemic issues underlying government program fraud. Jetson and Patrick discuss healthcare fraud cases, including hospice eligibility manipulation and ambulance transport schemes, and other fraud practices against unemp…
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E88: The Fertility Apocalypse w/ Samo Burja
1:04:54
1:04:54
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This week on Upstream, Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja explore the global demographic crisis, examining plummeting fertility rates worldwide and their potentially catastrophic implications for humanity's future. For full show notes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/0d2557ac-2da6-4087-b6b4-b55f326b47fd — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops …
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E51: Venture Scale, Y Combinator, and Financial Bubbles
1:03:55
1:03:55
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In this episode of The Riff, Byrne Hobart discusses his upcoming book about financial bubbles, venture scale businesses, creator financing, and prediction markets. For full shownotes, visit: https://highlightai.com/share/d084ef81-e3cd-41b2-be04-b6fc2bbe3f7a 📰Be notified early when Turpentine drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiv…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Tokenomics, Revisited (04:41) - AI and Education (06:59) - Money Laundering (07:54) - Agglomeration Economics (08:49) - Threat Models (09:24) - Universal Hardware…
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E87: Embodied Minds and Cognitive Agents with Dr. Michael Levin
1:27:24
1:27:24
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In this episode, Dr. Michael Levin, Distinguished Professor of Biology at Tufts University, joins Nathan Labenz of The Cognitive Revolution Podcast to discuss embodied minds, his research into limb regeneration and collective intelligence, cognitive light cones, and much more. Dr. Levin and the Levin Lab work at the intersection of biology, artific…
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E50: Freemium Apps, Restaurants, and Search with Patrick McKenzie
1:27:58
1:27:58
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In this special episode of The Riff, Byrne Hobart is joined by Patrick McKenzie, host of the podcast Complex Systems to discuss a range of topics including app business models, restaurant industry economics, AI's impact on productivity, the evolution of search technologies and more. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and execs in the Turpentine Netw…
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E86: Techno-capitalism with Bryan Johnson
1:06:46
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Bryan Johnson joins Antonio Garcia Martinez and Erik Torenberg to discuss the deeper spiritual beliefs behind the "Don't Die" movement in the face of AI and the inadequacy of human clock speed. They cover religions as death cults, long-termism vs engineering your own longevity, and Bryan's recent interview on Tucker Carlson. — 🔥 Apply to join over …
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How real estate investing works with Moses Kagan
1:29:23
1:29:23
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Moses Kagan, co-founder of Adaptive Realty, ReSeed, and Reconvene. Their deep dive into real estate investing and property management covers the different classes of apartment buildings, the challenges of property management, and the complexities of financing structures in the industry. They …
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - And, elsewhere: (00:01) - Capital Structure (01:12) - Designer Brands and Transaction Costs (02:45) - SMBs (04:27) - Top-Down Market Reform (05:10) - Chosen Obligations…
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E85: Analyzing Everything with Byrne Hobart and Patrick McKenzie
1:29:15
1:29:15
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This week on Upstream, we’re releasing a conversation between Patrick McKenzie and Byrne Hobart where they navigate the compelling terrains of in-app purchases and restaurant economics. They dive into the monetization strategies of video games and the influence of food delivery platforms like DoorDash on pricing and menu designs and explore the bri…
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E84: Let’s Fix Social Media with Jonathan Haidt
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In this episode of Upstream, Erik Torenberg sits in with social psychologist Jonathan Haidt to discuss his book, 'The Anxious Generation.' They dive into the severe impact of social media on youth mental health and explore Jonathan's recommendations for smartphone and social media usage among teens. They discuss the broader implications for democra…
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Erik Torenberg, investor and the media entrepreneur behind Turpentine, explore the evolving relationship between tech journalism and the industry it covers. They discuss how fictional portrayals of industries greatly inform how jobseekers understand those industries, and how the industries understand …
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E49: AI Art, Young Founders, and Disrupting Higher Education
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This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the shifting dynamics of careers and education, the notion of "auto-paternalism" in organizational choices, Spotify's growth strategy in a mature market, the future of podcasts and audio content, and the intricate relationship between AI art, property rights and more. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Found…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Money and Legitimacy (06:53) - Moats (07:36) - Big Tech Sees Like a State (08:43) - Shifting Costs (09:31) - Managing Macro (10:11) - Experimentation…
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E83: How Patty McCord Built Netflix’s Culture
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This week on Upstream, former Netflix HR executive Patty McCord sits down with Nolan Church and Kelli Dragovich to dive deep into the creation and impact of Netflix's renowned culture deck, hailed as a pivotal document in Silicon Valley. Patty shares the evolution of the deck over 10 years with Netflix's management team, the challenges of scaling a…
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E48: Facebook vs MySpace, Why Peter Thiel is Wrong About Competition, and OpenAI Corporate Structure
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This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg dive into a range of fascinating topics such as the evolution and future of OpenAI's business model, economic rationale behind corporate buybacks, changing software economics, China's recent equity market surge and more. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.tur…
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The hundred-year-old telegram worth $5 million, with Jim McKenzie
1:52:36
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Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by his father, Jim McKenzie, for an intimate and in depth exploration of commercial real estate development. They unravel the complex web of relationships, regulations, and often absurd situations that shape our built environment. From the intricacies of curb cuts and driveway permits to the art of navigating lo…
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E82: America’s Future with Palmer Luckey
1:11:50
1:11:50
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This week on Upstream, we revisit a 2023 conversation between Jacob Helberg, Delian Asparouhov, Christian Garrett and Palmer Luckey, founder of Anduril Industries and Oculus VR where they discuss the intersection of Silicon Valley and U.S. defense technology. They tackle the challenges of defense tech innovation, the influence of Chinese technology…
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Corporal Dmytro on Serving on the Frontlines of Ukraine
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Corporal Dmytro joins New Frontier to discuss his experiences in the Ukrainian military and the ongoing conflict with Russia. Some highlights: Firsthand account of the Russian invasion's early days and the chaos of initial combat operations Evolution of the conflict from early artillery dominance to drone warfare and trench combat Comparison of Ukr…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Auto-Paternalism (05:11) - Growth (06:58) - AI Deployment (08:06) - S-Curves and TV (09:04) - Increasing the Asymptote (10:00) - ChinaBy Byrne Hobart
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E81: Status, Sacred, and Neglected Truths with Robin Hanson
1:27:14
1:27:14
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In this episode of Upstream, Erik Torenberg is joined by economist and futurist Robin Hanson. They dissect the intricacies of human motives, the psychology of status, and the profound impact of self-deception on behavior. Robin shares his revolutionary ideas for reforming academia and his pioneering work on prediction markets and his thoughts on th…
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E47: Cult Stocks, Tech Media, and Technological Revolutions
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This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss cult stocks like Tesla and Palantir, debate whether AI or globalization will impact jobs more, explore the energy transition's unexpected reversal, analyze Forbes' content strategy and more. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/ ---…
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E80: Financial Plumbing with Patrick McKenzie and Erik Torenberg
57:13
57:13
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In this episode of Upstream, Erik Torenberg interviews Patrick McKenzie (patio11) about the intricacies of the financial system, focusing on banking, money laundering, and regulatory compliance. They discuss several of Patrick’s essays from Bits About Money. Patrick discusses the three stages of money laundering - placement, layering, and integrati…
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Bits, Bytes, and Burgers with Byrne Hobart
1:26:13
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Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined again by Byrne Hobart, writer of The Diff, for a follow up conversation about “whales” – and so much more – across the gaming, aviation, software, hospitality and fast food industries. Patrick and Byrne also discuss their writing process, knowledge management, and how they use AI tools. – Full transcript availab…
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