The Diff is a newsletter exploring the technologies, companies, and trends that are making the future high-variance. Posts range from in-depth company profiles, applied financial theory, strategy breakdowns and macroeconomics.
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Investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today’s major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future. Topics covered: Finance, Venture Capital, Tech, AI, Crypto, and Industry Cycles The Riff is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. Learn more: turpentine.co
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You’ll hear consequential ideas here first, and in the mainstream months later. Upstream is a curated nexus feed from the Turpentine podcast network, bringing you expert-level conversations hosted by some of the most compelling thinkers in the world including Noah Smith, Samo Burja, Byrne Hobart, Erik Torenberg, and Nathan Labenz. Guests include Marc Andreessen, Balaji Srinivasan, Dario Amodei, Brian Armstrong, David Sacks, Sam Harris, Katherine Boyle, Curtis Yarvin, and many more unmissable ...
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Patrick Blumenthal (@PatrickJBlum) interviews some of the world's leading economists, political scientists, and philosophers to discuss their ideas and what they mean for society, technology, and the economy.
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A podcast by 1517 Fund exploring subversive intellectuals, entrepreneurs, and thinkers across society.
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Compensation as Game Design (13:00) - More on Talent (14:21) - Financial Engineering (15:06) - Where We Are in the Cycle (15:46) - Product/Service Complementarity (16:41) - The Missing Panic…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - What We'll Lose With AI (09:05) - Platforms and Reputation (10:35) - General-Purpose Technologies (11:26) - Court Politics (12:46) - Post-Ozempic Snacking (13:20) - The Next Phase of Crypto …
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - In Defense of the Ad Economy (09:45) - Wage Elasticity (11:23) - Coopetition (11:58) - Capital Structure (12:46) - Market Breadth (14:26) - Playing Chicken…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Gonzo Startups (07:01) - Don't Bet on a Third World War (08:11) - Perplexity (08:39) - Equity Compensation (09:36) - Hiring (10:36) - LLM SEO!…
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What Happened to Working Your Way Up from the Mailroom?
9:56
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9:56This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Reasoning Models Don't Really Reason, But It's Fine: Computers Don't Really Think in 1s and 0s, Either (05:51) - Guidance (06:21) - Correlated Outages (06:57) - Attrition (07:52) - Policy Im…
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Search Remains the Best Business in History
14:17
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14:17This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Search Remains the Best Business in History (09:38) - Equity Market Vigilantes (10:27) - Scale (11:15) - Volatility (12:02) - Tariff Impact (13:03) - Splits and Synergies…
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Democratizing Complicated Financial Products is Inevitable, but Fraught
12:24
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12:24This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Democratizing Complicated Financial Products is Inevitable, but Fraught (08:27) - Startup Fraud (09:09) - Automation (09:52) - Motivations (10:31) - Ads (11:15) - Utilization…
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Adversarial Attacks in Statistical Arbitrage
4:32
4:32
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4:32This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - And, elsewhere: (00:03) - Banking (00:44) - Financial Engineering (01:20) - Hiring and Game Theory (02:38) - Currency Blocs (03:13) - AI SEOBy Byrne Hobart
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - TK Competing Elite-Selection Mechanisms (06:39) - Left-Tail Outcomes (08:18) - Downgrades and Giffen Goods (10:21) - Bearer Instruments (11:27) - Currency (12:07) - Shipping…
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E141: The Bronze Age Collapse and History's Selective Memory
1:03:08
1:03:08
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1:03:08Today on Upstream, we’re sharing Erik Torenberg conversation with Samo Burja where they discuss the Bronze Age collapse, technological advancements in ancient civilizations, and the nuanced history of the Roman Empire, along with a detailed analysis of contemporary geopolitical dynamics, particularly focusing on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and i…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Arbs Close, Infrastructure Remains (06:41) - Abundance and Realignment (07:17) - AI Undeath (08:11) - Basic Capital (09:42) - Tariffs (11:28) - Insurable Risks…
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Today on Upstream, we’re sharing Erik Torenberg conversation with Samo Burja on this week’s Live Players. They discuss the potential industrial revolutions in history, particularly in the Roman Empire and Song Dynasty China, their technological advancements, economic factors, and the reasons these revolutions didn't reach full fruition. — 📰 Be noti…
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E139: America’s Tech Strategy w/ Qasar Younis, Sen. Jack Reed, and Josh Wolfe
29:38
29:38
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29:38This week, we’re featuring a panel discussion from the 2025 Hill and Valley Forum with Josh Wolfe (Lux Capital), Senator Jack Reed (RI), and Qasar Younis, Founder and CEO, Applied Intuition They address talent attraction and retention, China's espionage and surveillance state, immigration policies, dual-use technologies, and the challenges and stra…
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When Step One is to Light Money on Fire and Measure How Fast it Burns
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12:45This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - When Step One is to Light Money on Fire and Measure How Fast it Burns (06:21) - Groupchats and Norms (09:56) - Venture (10:23) - Made in America (11:08) - Real Estate Elasticity (11:47) - La…
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E138: Palantir CEO Alex Karp & Rep. Ritchie Torres on Innovation & The West | Hill and Valley Forum 2024
30:28
30:28
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30:28Alex Karp, CEO of Palantir Technologies, and Congressman Richie Torres discuss higher education, Palantir's fearless culture, and the importance of contrarianism in driving innovation at the 2024 Hill and Valley Forum. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess — RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️…
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E137: AI Safety vs Speed: Helen Toner Discusses OpenAI Board Experience, Regulatory Approaches, and Military AI [The Cognitive Revolution]
1:20:01
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1:20:01This week on Upstream, we’re releasing an episode of The Cognitive Revolution. Nathan Labenz interviews Helen Toner, director at CSET, about her experiences with OpenAI, the concept of adaptation buffers for AI integration, and AI's role in military decision-making. They discuss the implications of AI development, the need for regulatory policies, …
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E71: Risk Taking, Contrarianism, and Growth [Byrne on Interintellect]
1:39:33
1:39:33
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1:39:33In this episode, Byrne Hobart joined Matjaž Leonardis in Austin for an Interintellect salon — a platform for 21st-century intellectual discourse—to discuss his new book Boom: Bubbles at the End of Stagnation, exploring how technological advancements, market paradoxes, and historical and modern financial bubbles — from the Manhattan Project to crypt…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Thinking-Things-Through Privilege (08:11) - Trade Negotiations (10:05) - M&A (11:09) - AI and IP (11:58) - Consolidation (12:42) - SourcingBy Byrne Hobart
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E136: Trump V2: Tariffs, American Dynamism, Higher Ed | Byrne Hobart
1:02:03
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1:02:03In this episode, Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart discuss the economic consequences of Trump's tariffs, OpenAI's recent innovations, and their implications for white collar work. They also explore the potential market shifts, the resilience of the US dollar as a reserve currency, and the state of elite higher education institutions like Harvard in t…
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E70: OpenAI’s Open Source Strategy, Volatility & Tariffs, and Automation’s Consequences w/ Byrne Hobart
1:06:31
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1:06:31This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg explore how technological advancements, policy shifts like Trump's tariffs and U.S. industrial policy, the re-industrialization of America, the influence of institutions like Harvard, the evolving role of the U.S. dollar, and the rise of OpenAI are reshaping global markets, businesses, and the future of ar…
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E135: The Problem With Reserve Currencies and Switching to Crypto w/ Lyn Alden [From the Archives]
57:45
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57:45This week on Upstream, we’re sharing Erik Torenberg’s 2024 interview with Lyn Alden. Lyn discusses her book 'Broken Money', the impact of the global reserve currency, inflation, interest rates, and provides advice for navigating an uncertain economic future. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/ex…
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Information Economies and Institution Economies
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12:49
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12:49This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Information Economies and Institution Economies (07:58) - Distribution (09:19) - Non-Tariff Barriers (10:24) - Low-Background Text (11:08) - Application Layer (12:05) - Socks…
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E134: Atheism’s Decline, Consciousness, and The New Right w/ Ross Douthat
57:08
57:08
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57:08Today on Upstream, Ross Douthat joins Erik Torenberg to discuss his new book 'Believe: Why Everyone Should Be Religious,' exploring the decline of new atheism, the intellectual defense of institutional religion, and the intersection between traditional Christianity, Silicon Valley, and modern materialism. This episode originally aired on Moment of …
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E133: China’s Energy Problem w/ Samo Burja
57:09
57:09
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57:09Today on Upstream, we’re releasing a 2024 conversation between Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja. They discuss China's approach to energy security, exploring why China isn't pursuing energy independence despite significant oil production capability and the potential for further development. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication:…
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E69: Good vs Bad Bubbles, Stagnation, and Bitcoin [Byrne on Bankless]
1:45:48
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1:45:48In this episode of The Riff, we are releasing a conversation Byrne Hobart had on the Bankless podcast about Byrne's book Bitcoin, exploring the provocative idea that speculative Bubbles—while sometimes destructive—can be powerful drivers of innovation, with examples from history and present-day trends like AI and crypto, ultimately highlighting the…
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Finance as a Scale-Invariant Global Computer
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13:07This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Finance as a Scale-Invariant Global Computer (06:29) - The Market (08:45) - Supply and Demand (09:38) - The March Continues (10:43) - ETFs (11:42) - Intellectual Property…
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E132: AI Managers, US vs China Analysis, and AI Art w/ Byrne Hobart
51:38
51:38
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51:38Today on Upstream, we’re sharing an episode of The Riff (originally aired on April 1, 2025). Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart explore the shifting dynamics of global trade between China and the US, the potential for AI to replace senior rather than junior roles in the workplace, and the economic structure of live entertainment markets like StubHub. …
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E131: Abundance Agenda, The New Right, and 2008 Retrospective w/ Noah Smith
1:08:17
1:08:17
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1:08:17Today on Upstream, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith discuss the Abundance Agenda by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, the impact of the 2008 recession, Obama's presidency, and shifts in political ideology, focusing on the 'New Right' and its cultural and economic implications, while also touching upon the economic recovery strategies post-2008. This epis…
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E68: Chinese Free Trade, AI Managers, and Why AI Art is Art
53:14
53:14
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53:14This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the transformative impact of technological change on global trade, AI’s disruption of senior roles, the debate over AI-generated art, and market dynamics—particularly in live entertainment ticketing—offering a wide-ranging and thought-provoking discussion. --- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our qu…
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"Do Firms Need Juniors?" Might be the Wrong Question
11:24
11:24
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11:24This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - "Do Firms Need Juniors?" Might be the Wrong Question (06:02) - Solve for X + X (07:45) - Refactoring (08:21) - AI and Distribution (09:11) - How Models Think (10:14) - The AI Business Model…
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E130: Elon Musk’s Network Effects and Checking in on Chinese AI w/ Byrne Hobart
59:31
59:31
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59:31This week on Upstream, we're releasing an episode of The Riff (originally aired on March 25, 2025) where Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart discuss Don Jr.'s leveraging of the Trump brand, Dustin Moskovitz's departure to address AI risks, economic impacts of various policies, and geopolitical considerations with a focus on AI and China's tech ambition…
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E129: Dark Triad, Romantic Partner Selection, and Dating Advice w/ Rob Henderson
1:02:32
1:02:32
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1:02:32Today on Upstream, Erik Torenberg interviews author Rob Henderson about modern romance, discussing evolutionary psychology, the attraction to dark triad men, dating apps, and practical advice for men seeking romantic partners. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our s…
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E67: Hidden X-Risk, Network Effects of Elon’s Empire, and American Hegemony
58:56
58:56
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58:56This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg explore Donald Trump Jr.'s financial leverage of the Trump brand, Dustin Moskovitz's shift toward AI existential risks, Elon Musk's strategic decisions with Twitter, potential U.S. recessions, political party shifts, China's AI policy, and the broader impact of these developments on Wall Street and Main St…
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There's More Than One Efficient Market Paradox
13:18
13:18
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13:18This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - There's More Than One Efficient Market Paradox (08:06) - Reciprocal Tariffs (08:46) - AI Purgatory (09:24) - Payments and Credit (10:47) - LinkedInFluencers (11:43) - Efficient Markets…
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E128: US-Europe Relations, How Japan Can Strengthen The Yen, and Predicting AI’s Growth Effects w/ Noah Smith
52:48
52:48
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52:48Today on Upstream, Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith analyze America's European withdrawal, China's selective globalization strategy, and tempers expectations about AI's economic impact while considering GDP measurement challenges. — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏Help shape our sh…
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E127: The Tech Right and How The Left Can Fix Itself w/ Jon Askonas
45:22
45:22
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45:22Today on Upstream, we’re airing Erik Torenberg’s conversation with Jon Askonas. They explore the emerging coalition between MAGA supporters and Silicon Valley tech leaders, examines the underlying political realignment, the tensions and fault lines within this coalition, and the potential future conflicts surrounding issues like immigration and tra…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Klarna and the Two Pivots of 2022 (11:00) - Crypto Adoption (12:26) - Art Margin Calls (13:13) - Liquidations (14:07) - Corporate Espionage (15:26) - DeepSeek…
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E126: Data Center Economics and AI Energy Requirements w/ Patrick McKenzie and Azeem Azhar
1:14:17
1:14:17
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1:14:17Today on Upstream, we’re releasing Patrick MacKenzie's interview with Azeem Azhar which originally aired in February 2025 on Complex Systems. They discuss the economics and infrastructure of data centers, comparing historical infrastructure rollouts to modern AI-driven data center needs, and explore the implications of exponential power demands, in…
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E125: Palantir’s Politics, Elon’s Approach to DOGE, and AI’s Effects on Writing w/ Byrne Hobart
56:03
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56:03Today on Upstream, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg dive into the wide-ranging effects of technological change on media and society. They cover the AI debate, blogging's social impact, AI's influence on search and data, the changing news industry, foreign aid cuts, and the rise of new tech elites. This episode originally aired on The Riff (March 11,…
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E66: The Politics of Alex Karp and Palantir, DOGE Breakdown, and AI vs Blogging
56:30
56:30
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56:30This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg explore the effects of technological change on media and society, covering topics such as the AI debate, blogging's social impact, AI's influence on search and data, the changing news industry, foreign aid cuts, and the rise of new tech elites. --- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey …
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Text and Telos (07:03) - Scaling (07:49) - Retail Investors (09:12) - Comparative Advantage (09:47) - Transaction Costs and Corporate Structure (10:58) - DeepSeek Governance…
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E124: How to Have A Philosophical Marriage w/ Agnes Callard and Arnold Brooks
1:09:21
1:09:21
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1:09:21Today on Upstream, we’re releasing an episode from Modern Relationships which originally aired on February 28, 2025 where Erik Torenberg interviews philosophy professors Agnes Callard and Arnold Brooks about their unconventional marriage, the role of philosophy in their relationship, the impact of their public profile, and how they balance personal…
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E123: Trump & The Game of Populism w/ Samo Burja
56:27
56:27
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56:27Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja discuss the limitations of populist politics, the difficulty populists face in effecting change despite electoral wins, and the influence of digital democracy on modern governance. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking ou…
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E122: Victor Davis Hanson on What Trump Thinks of Zelensky and Predicting Geopolitics
35:03
35:03
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35:03In this Upstream episode, Erik Torenberg sits down with military historian Victor Davis Hanson. They discuss the future of Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, the evolution of the American left, and Donald Trump's potential future legacy. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape …
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E121: Kevin Kelly on What Makes Us Human in an AI World
47:28
47:28
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47:28In this episode of Upstream, we’re releasing Erik Torenberg’s interview from 2023 with Kevin Kelly, founding executive editor of Wired Magazine, discussing Kevin’s new advice book, the impact of gratitude, and how technology, especially AI, interacts with and shapes human existence and culture. — 📰Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publi…
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E65: Bill Gates’s Persona, Against Copying Berkshire Hathaway, and Making the Economy More Like Chipotle
1:01:15
1:01:15
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1:01:15This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg examine why Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway can't be successfully replicated today, analyze Bill Gates's public versus private persona, and consider how economic growth manifests as "premium mediocre" options like Chipotle. --- 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly…
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E120: Why Europe Matters for America’s Future w/ Samo Burja
57:22
57:22
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57:22This week on Upstream, Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja discuss the widespread interest in U.S. politics and its global influence, particularly in Western and European countries, the internet's role in synchronizing political and cultural norms, and potential changes in European political landscapes influenced by American ideologies and media. — 📰 Be …
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E119: Free Trade, AI Integration, and Shopify Q4 Results w/ Shopify President Harley Finkelstein
55:55
55:55
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55:55Erik Torenberg interviews Harley Finkelstein, president of Shopify, discussing tariffs, political shifts, Shopify's earnings, and the evolution of entrepreneurship. — 📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/Turp…
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E64: US vs China’s Strategies, Uber’s Growth Model, AI Supply Chains
1:03:04
1:03:04
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1:03:04This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss technological inflection points and examine how legal frameworks mask continued globalization despite apparent retrenchment, explores US-China dynamics, analyzes AI industry structure and emerging models, and considers Uber's strategic positioning against autonomous vehicles. --- 🙏 Help shape our s…
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E118: Ending Woke, Why Elon Wins, and A Return to Innovation w/ Marc Andreessen [Moment of Zen repost]
1:45:40
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1:45:40Marc Andreessen and Erik Torenberg discuss the ongoing political and cultural shift in America, covering topics such as preference falsification, the role of DEI in tech and other sectors, the influence of group chats, and the emerging dynamic in politics with highly capable appointments in the new administration. — 📰Be notified early when Turpenti…
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