show episodes
 
A decade ago, Ed Feng was just a curious sports fan who wanted to win his bracket in March. He enjoyed books like Moneyball and Basketball on Paper but never put the ideas to use for winning a pool. That changed in 2008. After reading an academic paper on Google’s technology, Ed was inspired to apply his Stanford Ph.D. to the ranking of sports teams. From 2002 through 2018, his pre-tournament numbers predicted the winner of 71.2% of March Madness games (792-320). In this ten part podcast ser ...
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show series
 
John Sears, a special advisor to the Los Angeles Dodgers, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. John has a graduate degree from Stanford and has also worked for the Philadelphia 76ers. Highlights include: His first experience with applied math (7:48). Working at the Federal Reserve during the financial crisis (12:32). The decision to go t…
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Interceptions play a critical role in football. However, randomness plays a big role, which makes these critical plays difficult to predict. This episode describes my research into how to predict interceptions. The narrative starts in football but then ventures into some ideas about skill vs luck from Michael Maubossian's book The Success Equation.…
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Kevin Cole, football analytics expert and founder of Unexpected Points, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: Are NFL teams getting smarter at drafting players? (3:00). Why it's harder to build a team (11:32). Houston and trading up for the 3rd pick (13:56). Arizona, trading down and trading back up (18:50). Why Philad…
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Matt Waldman, creator of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio and senior writer for Football Guys, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: The wildly overrated 1st round QB in the 2023 NFL draft (11:38). Baker Mayfield (17:50). The QB that might seem overrated but isn't (21:10). Anthony Richardson's development (28:57). How NFL…
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Benjamin Robinson, who uses wisdom of crowds to predict the NFL draft at Grinding the Mocks, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: New research on predicting the NFL draft (6:56). NFL big boards (10:00). When to use wisdom of crowds to bet (15:00). Quarterbacks (19:50). The first pick (30:30). Defensive players (33:47)…
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Jeff Haley, a PhD in Chemical Engineering from the University of Minnesota and the founder of hoop-math.com, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: The data and insights on hoop-math.com (8:05). The future of college basketball data (13:52). The inspiration behind hoop-math.com (17:12). 3 point defense (19:58). Jeff als…
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You want to win your March Madness pool. The money is nice, but the bragging rights are even better. In this episode, I discuss three topics for the 2023 NCAA tournament: 1. The one thing you must get right to win, even before you use analytics (0:46) 2. Tennessee and their title chances (3:43) 3. How to predict March Madness upsets (6:54) The Foot…
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Evan Miyakawa, a statistics Ph.D. and founder of the college basketball analytics site evanmiya.com, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: His college basketball analytics for teams and players (12:11). Player level analytics with play by play data (19:50). Julian Phillips of Tennessee (24:00). Jaylen Clark of UCLA (26…
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Andy Molitor, the Director of Content at Betsperts, joins the show for a wide ranging conversations. Highlights include: His contrarian take on college basketball in March (4:28). His data driven process for betting college basketball (10:30). General outlook for the NCAA tournament (26:25). Purdue (29:14). Gonzaga (34:30). Can a defense get better…
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On the surface, it seems like Jalen Hurts is better at not throwing interceptions than Patrick Mahomes. For the 2022 season, Hurts has thrown 6 picks compared to 12 for Mahomes. However, randomness plays a big role in interceptions. This episode looks at the data behind this statement and reveals a better way to predict picks. Finally, I look at th…
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Hitman, a professional NFL bettor, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: His evolution as a professional bettor (8:50). Getting bets down, then and now (12:12). His process for betting NFL spreads and totals (19:50). Super Bowl spread bet (27:57). His process for betting NFL player props (33:16). Two Super Bowl props h…
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Dr. Eric Eager, the Vice President of Research and Development at Sumer Sports, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: His transition from PFF to Sumer Sports (4:20). The problem with a football betting model (12:03). Tampa Bay (14:20). San Francisco at Philadelphia (17:38). Cincinnati at Kansas City (21:33). Overreacti…
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Chris Bennett, the Director of Risk at Circa Sports Book, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: His first stoke of luck in his career (10:35). How he got his start in bookmaking (11:30). His edge as a sports bettor (22:06). NFL bookmaking (27:31). The NFL limits at Circa, open and close (33:49). Do big groups wait to b…
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Kevin Cole, football analytics expert and creator of the Unexpected Points newsletter and podcast, joins the show for a wide ranging conversion. Highlights include: Chicago Bears and the number one pick in the 2023 draft (5:21). Adjusting QB stats for teammates and Daniel Jones (15:03). Kevin's model for predicting spreads (23:50). Seattle at San F…
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Jim Sannes, senior writer/analyst at FanDuel and host of the Covering the Spread podcast, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: The predictive models that Jim uses in his handicapping (9:20). Philadelphia Eagles (15:39). A week 18 NFL bet (17:11). When models are way off market (20:24). His trick for finding NFL player…
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Matt Landes, host of the Props and Hops podcast and VSIN NFL correspondent, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: How Matt got hooked on sports betting and started Props and Hops (7:40). His handicapping process (14:25). A less well known NFL analyst/bettor to follow (21:27). A NFL week 16 bet (25:56). Why Matt likes t…
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You want to win your bowl pool. But do you have the strategies to optimize your chances? This episode digs into three essential topics: 1. The value in bowl pools, 2. The type of pool to enter, 3. Contrarian strategies, which are necessary for certain types of pools. The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to pred…
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Ted Knutson, the CEO of StatsBomb who has also worked a professional bettor and book maker, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: Magic the Gathering as an entry into the betting world (6:06). How to improve yourself (11:24). Ted's process as a professional bettor (14:23). Working at Pinnacle sports book (17:20). The s…
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Ben Brown, the Head of Betting Innovation at PFF, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: New PFF football technology Ben is working on (15:35). Ben's football betting process (20:20). Special teams analytics (26:40). A college football bet for championship week (31:28). TCU vs Kansas State (34:25). Green Bay at Chicago …
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Matt Freedman, the director of content at FantasyPros and BettingPros, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: The hilarious way his fantasy football career got started (4:38). Matt's NFL model and handicapping process (12:56). Are NFL power ratings useful? (19:19). NFL home advantage (24:27). A Week 11 NFL bet on Chicag…
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Ryan O'Hanlon of ESPN joins the show for a wide ranging conversation on soccer, analytics and the World Cup. Highlights include: The evolution of soccer analytics over the past decade (5:54). His new book Net Gains (14:00). The optimal way to play soccer (19:25). The World Cup favorite (32:26). A World Cup dark horse to win (41:08). USMNT (45:43). …
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Edward Golden, the founder of Right Angle Sports (RAS), joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. RAS is one of the only pick selling services with a long term track record of winning and honesty. Highlights include: How Edward built up RAS (7:15). His approach to handicapping sports (15:00). A week 9 NFL bet he likes (16:40). College basketb…
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Adam Chernoff of Right Angle Sports (RAS), who has had many roles in the sports betting world, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: His "book making" start in the Caribbean (3:13). Betting tennis as a professional (17:58). Moving to RAS (23:55). The information and data he uses to handicap the NFL (29:14). How he uses…
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Parker Fleming, a college football analytics expert for BetUS and The Hammer, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: How Parker's college football model works (2:48). TCU and their big game against Kansas State (14:27). Michigan (25:58). The nightmare playoff scenario (31:22). A college football bet for week 8 (33:30). …
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