Host Ed Feng scours the numbers to bring you 3 midseason football predictions. This includes the struggling college football juggernaut, the NFL team whose pass offense might not suck, and the undefeated college football team that won't make the playoff.

Ben Baldwin, an Economics Ph.D. who covers the Seattle Seahawks for The Athletic, joins the show to talk NFL analytics. He discusses his research into the relationship between rushing and play action passing. The results might surprise you. He has also used success rate to evaluate the impact of Earl Thomas and running backs. We end by discussi ...…

Host Ed Feng discusses how to use yards per play adjusted for strength of schedule to evaluate college football teams for 2018. He talks about the 0-4 team better than its record suggests, and the 5-0 team poised for disappointment. Then he digs into the team with playoff hopes that has seen a drastic decline on defense. He ends with some quick ...…

Rob Pizzola, a numbers based sports bettor, joins the show to discuss football and hockey analytics. He shares his experience starting out as a bettor and running the Prediction Machine site. Rob also discusses his NFL modeling and which team he's looking to back the next few weeks. With the start of the NHL season on October 4th, he educates u ...…

David Hale, writer for ESPN, joins me to discuss his recent article on turnovers in college football. He talks about how game situation affects turnovers, and how these big plays can have interesting psychological consequences on the other team (e.g. Miami's turnover chain in 2017). We also discuss the catastrophe of Florida State, and whether ...…

Josh Hermsmeyer, a data scientist and writer for FiveThirtyEight, joins me talk about his work on NFL passing analytics. He explains the concept of air yards and how the distance the ball travels in the air can lead to predictive stats. Josh also discusses his recent FiveThirtyEight article on how NFL offenses do not pass nearly enough. Finally ...…

Kevin Cole, Director of Data and Analytics at RotoGrinders, joins the show to talk the 2018 NFL season. He tells us about his Bayesian model for projecting young quarterbacks and how it sees Jimmy Garappolo, Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz and Jared Goff. Kevin also gives predictions for DFS (a receiver to target) and the NFL (team that won't make t ...…

Sometimes, a college football team doesn't live up to the hype. Host Ed Feng uses the preseason AP poll as a benchmark for expectations, then employs a regression model to find 3 overrated teams for 2018.

Bill Connelly, college football analytics expert and writer at SB Nation, joins me to discuss the upcoming season. We talk about his study on explosive plays, which has implications for Michigan's defense and Stanford's offense. Bill then tells us how his preseason model works, and what it says about Miami and USC. We end with Bill's overrated ...…

Aaron Schatz, founder of Football Outsiders and pioneer in football analytics, joins the show to discuss his predictions for the 2018 NFL season. He tells us why the defense in Cleveland and Indianapolis will be much better than anyone expects. We also get into projecting San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo based on a small sample size. Finally, A ...…

Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game on VSIN, joins me for a wide ranging discussion on football analytics. He tells us story behind his Beating the Book podcast and how he weaves numbers into the show. Then we discuss the upcoming NFL season, including Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Cleveland among other teams. We end with Gill's movie recom ...…

Will the Los Angeles Rams dominate after their free agent signings this off season? Will San Francisco burst into the playoffs with new QB Jimmy Garappolo? Will Cincinnati struggle again? Host Ed Feng harnesses the wisdom of crowds to get NFL preseason rankings and answer these questions.

Mike Goodman, soccer analytics writer at FiveThirtyEight and other major media outlets, joins me to talk about the World Cup. We begin by discussing the evolution of soccer analytics from goals to expected goals. Then he breaks down the top contenders to win the 2018 World Cup. Finally, he explains how expected goals casts doubt on the roster c ...…

David Purdum, writer for ESPN, joins me to discuss the Supreme Court decision that opens the door for states to allow sports betting. We talk about how this impacts the NFL, the NCAA and online book makers. David also offers his bold prediction that will result from legalizing sports betting. To finish, we get into creativity lessons from music ...…

To predict the 2018 NFL Draft, I take a wisdom of crowds approach and aggregate data from 25 mock drafts. Last year, this predictor was more accurate than all but one of the constituent mock drafts. In this episode, I discuss where the top quarterbacks go in the first round, who will take Saquon Barkley and possible improvements to the model.…

NFL Network analytics expert Cynthia Frelund joins me in a wide ranging conversation. She talks about her video study on NFL linemen, the most difficult players to research. We discuss the Cleveland Browns, their problems and what they will do in the 2018 draft. She also tells us about Next Gen data and her new project for the 2018 season.…

Colin Davy, director of data science at The Action Network, joins me to discuss sports analytics and predictions for the Masters. We start with the methods he has developed to rank tennis players and now applies to golf. Then Colin tells us whether a large or small playbook leads to better offense in football. Finally, we talk about the Masters ...…

Adam Stanco, producer at the Pac-12 Network and hoops expert, joins me to talk March Madness. We focus the show on team that can win the 2018 tournament, as the choice of champion is the most important for winning your pool. This second part covers Michigan State, North Carolina, Kansas, Michigan and two other teams Adam finds intriguing.…

Adam Stanco, producer at the Pac-12 Network and hoops expert, joins me to talk March Madness. We focus the show on teams that can win the 2018 tournament, as the choice of champion is the most important for winning your pool. This first part goes over Villanova, Virginia, Duke and Cincinnati.

Live by the three, die by the three. The conventional wisdom says that teams that shoot a lot of three point shots have high variability in their performance. This makes it difficult to win the NCAA tournament. In 2014, I did some research that suggested 3 point shooting teams do not win the tournament. However, college basketball has changed i ...…

In this special episode, we tell the story behind predicting March Madness. The tournament might seem random, but there is a good reason for this public perception. In reality, the tournament is predictable in key ways, and this can help you win your March Madness pool. Join us on this journey from skeptic to winner.…

Ken Pomeroy, a pioneer in college basketball analytics and founder of kenpom.com, joins me for a wide ranging discussion. He tells us how his college basketball rankings work, what aspects of 3 pointers a team controls on offense and defense, and how predicting the weather prepared him for college basketball.…

In this 7 minute episode, Ed Feng previews the Super Bowl by comparing Philadelphia to recent team that played in the Super Bowl. In making this comparison, he digs into Philadelphia's pass numbers with QB Nick Foles, and New England's pass defense the latter part of the season.

Brian Burke, Senior Analytics Specialist at ESPN, joins me for a wide ranging football conversation. We discuss the 4th down study he did at his old site Advanced Football Analytics. He tells us how to project Jimmy Garappolo on a limited sample size and his prediction for the Super Bowl. We end with his favorite book and the value of reading t ...…

Evan Silva, senior NFL editor at RotoWorld, joins me to discuss the analytics in breaking down the NFL conference championship games. He tells us about the one weakness in Jacksonville's defense that New England could exploit, as well as the change on Minnesota's offense last week that might impact the game at Philadelphia. After the interview, ...…

Professor Cade Massey of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania joins the show to talk NFL playoffs. We discuss the most predictive factor in the Massey-Peabody model, do a deep dive into Atlanta's defense, and how New England's defense excels in some ways yet fails in others.

John Ewing from Sports Insights and The Action Network joins me to talk football analytics. We discuss predictions for the NFL Wildcard Playoff games as well as two Super Bowl futures. Then we talk about the hidden factor that can affect the total in the college football championship game between Georgia and Alabama. After the interview, I talk ...…

Dave Mason from BetOnline.ag joins me to talk about college football and the NFL. He tells us how his sports book sets market each week and the advantages of putting out lines before others. He talks about how NFL results have impacted his company this season and the importance of Bitcoin. After the interview, I tell a story that answers the qu ...…

When host Ed Feng was doing his research on how to win your college football bowl pool, he realized the ideas also apply to NFL pick 'em pools. In this episode, he shows how to win your NFL pool this week by picking the winners in games and assigning confidence points. This is done through his analytics. Then he goes through his procedure for f ...…

Ed Feng explains his quantitative research on college football bowl pools. Based on 4 years of data, he explains why there is value in entering bowl pools. He then explains which types of bowl pools to enter. You should avoid pools in which randomness decreases your win probability. Then you should consider using contrarian strategies, or fadin ...…

Dave Bartoo, college football number cruncher that goes by CFB Matrix, joins me for a wide ranging conversation. He tells us why he likes to be wrong. We break down the 4 big championship games with college football playoff implications. Finally, he tells us the significance of Fresno State for the college football playoff. The Football Analyti ...…

Which match up matters most in Alabama at Ohio State? Can Georgia Tech upset Georgia at home? How can Michigan stay in the game against Ohio State? Ed Feng breaks down the analytics behind these games.

Peter Jennings, two time world champion in Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) and cofounder of Fantasy Labs, joins me to discuss analytics in DFS. He tells us how his poker background helps him get started, and what times of year you'll find the most value in DFS. He also contrasts different sports and which ones require subjective adjustments from wat ...…

Kevin Cole, data scientist and founder of Predictive Football, joins me to talk about his points added model for NFL skill players. He explains how this new method considers how far a pass travels in the air, and how it evaluates the differences between quarterbacks and running backs. We also discuss Bills QB Tyrod Taylor and the 2018 QB class ...…

The first part of the show assigns a point value to player absences such as Ezekiel Elliott and Aaron Rodgers in the NFL. The second part talks about The Power Rank's probability that each college football team makes the playoff. There's a story behind why Penn State has the highest probability. Finally, host Ed Feng answers questions from list ...…

Bob Stoll, founder of Dr. Bob Sports and a true pioneer in using numbers in handicapping, joins the show. He talks about the analytics of his college football model and how he makes adjustments for situations and injuries. He also tells us about the machine learning methods of his new NFL model and gives us some college football teams to track ...…

Dan Frabrizio, the founder of Sports Insights, joins the show for wide ranging conversation on sports analytics and betting. He tells us why he started Sports Insights back in 1999 and how to get an edge with reverse line movement. Then we discuss the NFL in 2017 and the recent acquisition of Sports Insights by The Chernin Group, a large media ...…

Matthew Holt, COO of CG Technologies and the guy who sets the market in Nevada, joins me for a wide ranging conversation. He tells us how far gathering injury information has come in the past 12 years, as well as how sportsbooks use analytics to set the market (or at least as much as he could). We also get into the difficulty of making predicti ...…

Joe Fortenbaugh, host of the new podcast The Sharp 600 and San Francisco sports radio personality, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. He tells us the amazing story of how he broke into the sports world, a must listen whether you want to follow in his footsteps or land a date after getting a number. He then discusses his new podcast ...…

Rufus Peabody, professional sports bettor and creator of Massey Peabody football analytics, joins the show to talk football analytics and predictions. He tells us how his numbers balance preseason expectation with incoming data from the current season. Then he breaks down Oklahoma State and USC, two college football teams that numbers find over ...…

Brian Fremeau, creator of the FEI college football rankings and writer for ESPN Insider and Football Outsiders, tells us how he started doing college football rankings way back in 2003. He uses points per possession adjusted for starting field position to evaluate teams on offense and defense. He's also a Notre Dame fan and previews the game at ...…

I welcome Drew Martin of Sports Book Review to talk about handicapping small school college football. He takes us on his journey from all county QB in high school to JP Morgan to the sports world. We discuss how he handicaps games, and how the show Man vs Machine that he does with me came about. After the interview, I discuss small sample size ...…

Bill Connelly, college football analytics expert and SB Nation writer, joins me for a wide ranging college football discussion. He describes how he writes a preview for every FBS team each off season 7 years running. Then we give predictions and analysis for Oklahoma at Ohio State, Stanford at USC, Auburn at Clemson and Georgia at Notre Dame.…

Jonathan Bales, Daily Fantasy Sports player and founder of Fantasy Labs, joins me to talk analytics. We talk about the unique product that Fantasy Labs offers, and he makes an unanticipated product announcement on the show. We also talk about books, writing and counter intuitive way to break into the sports analytics world.…

Aaron Schatz, founder of Football Outsiders, joins me to discuss his predictions for the upcoming 2017 NFL season. We discuss the significance of passing over rushing in the NFL, and how it's been that way for 30 years. Then Aaron gives us an underrated and overrated team for the upcoming 2017 season.…

Professor Ryan Rodenberg from Florida State explains the legal status of betting on games, which culminates in the Supreme Court's recent decision to hear a case from New Jersey. I was particularly intrigued by the role of the NBA in the case, who seeks to prevent New Jersey from legalizing betting but has also publicly endorsed betting on game ...…

Nik Bonaddio, the founder and CEO of numberFire, joins me to talk about football analytics and venture capital. Topics include the core idea behind their fantasy football projections, the type of companies that get venture capital funding, and the sports book Nik has read at least 10 times. The show ends with a segment about the one thing that ...…

Stewart Mandel is starting a new subscription based college football site called The All-American, and he joins me to discuss how analytics will play a role in their content. We also discuss the surprising conference that ended up last in his coaching talent rankings, and the team that could shake up the ACC. Last, he gives a template for how t ...…

With the football season fast approaching, I discuss my preseason college football rankings that have predicted the winner in over 70% of games the past three seasons. The first story looks at 3 teams that may have been one hit wonders last year. Then I transition into the blue blood program that should bounce back from an awful 2016 campaign. ...…

Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game on the Vegas Stats and Information Network, joins me for a wide ranging conversation on sports analytics and media. We discuss the book that inspired him to leave a successful music career to get into sports, the real, non-betting reason he loves doing his Beating the Book podcast, and the non-book work of ...…