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Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and the forces shaping movements in Australian and global markets in the days ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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US retail runs hot and inflation day for many
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Wednesday 17th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US retail numbers came in stronger than expected. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether this could delay any moves by the Fed? Certainly, equity markets ae banking on cuts coming soon, with the rotation in stocks continuing and anothe…
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Powell eyes labour market, equity markets eye Trump friendly stocks
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Tuesday 16th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Equity markets are showing some adjustment to the prospect of a Trump presidency, with oil producers and gun makers doing well, renewables falling and Bitcoin up almost 6% today. Bond markets are still more responsive to Fed-speak. NA…
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Is Trump now a shoo-in for the Presidency?
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Monday 15th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The assassination attempt against Donald Trump on Saturday is likely to bolster his support, ahead of his GOP official nomination this week. NAB’s Tapas Strickland tells Phil that betting markets have shifted further in favour of a Rep…
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Weekend Edition - 75 percent: The New Normal for Office Workers?
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Friday 12th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB NAB has been looking at a variety of high frequency data sources to see how quickly workers are returning to the office. In this edition NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the trend seems to have stalled at 75% of pre-COVID levels. Credit ana…
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Friday 12th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Big market moves to a softer than expected CPI read in the US overnight. Bond yields are lower, the US dollar is lower and a big response in equity markets. Basically tech stocks have been hit hard, whilst industrials have climbed. Rot…
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Thursday 11th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The drive for Joe Biden to step aside continues to dominate the news cycle in America, with actor George Clooney, who held a fundraiser for the President only a month ago, now calling for him to step aside for someone younger. Incide…
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Powell says labour market is no longer an inflationary pressure
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Wednesday 10th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Jerome Powell has been speaking to the US congress and says the labour market is no longer an inflationary pressure. So, what does that mean for the timing of rate cuts? NAB’s Skye Masters says there hasn’t been too much change in e…
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Tuesday 9th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a lacklustre day for markets. Equities have moved a little ahead of earnings season which kicks off in earnest later in the week. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk about the new French government, which will take some tim…
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Monday 8th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB France looks like it won’t be veering sharply to the right after a. The exit poll out this morning has Marine Le Pen’s party in third place, so it looks likely the country is heading for a hung parliament. Phil talks to NAB’s Tapas Stri…
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Weekend Edition: More on Australia’s House Price Quandary
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Friday 6th July 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. In June, according to PropTrack, Australia’s home prices hit new highs, rising for the 18th consecutive month. But, as Eleanor Creagh, senior economist at PropTrack explains, the growth is f…
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Friday 5th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There are three big political stories today. First, the French election round two could still deliver a majority for Marine LePen’s party. But NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets are not viewing that as such an alarming outcome, saying ther…
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Weaker Services data pushes equities higher and bond yields lower
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Thursday 4th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The S&P hit new highs as bond yields fell overnight. Markets clearly thought the latest ISM Services number, which came in surprisingly weak, is just the sort of slowdown indicator that will encourage the Fed to act sooner rather than…
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What did Powell say to spur on US equity markets?
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Wednesday 3rd July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US shares rallied late in the session, on the back of comments from Jerome Powell. So what did he say? That’s the first question Phil puts to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril on this morning’s podcast. Meanwhile, Europe's inflation barely moved …
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Yields push higher still, France’s political concerns ease, one more reason for BoJ to lift rates
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Tuesday 2nd July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Treasury yields continue to rise. NAB’s Syke Masters says here are a range of factors at play ,but one is the seeming lack of concern on both sides of politics to address the US government’s rising deficit. In Europe concerns about a N…
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Monday 1st July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s the first day of the third quarter. The unsurprising news from French exit-polls this morning shows a clear win for Le Pen’s National Rally party, securing a third of the votes. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says markets have already priced-…
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Weekend Edition: The Art and Science of Fixed Income. Without the straight lines.
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Friday 28th June 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. Could central banks push their timing back even further? Emma Lawson says we can’t ignore how economies are slowing, so there’s every chance that market pricing for cuts could move forward.…
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US Core PCE deflator. Why you need to look at the second decimal place.
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Friday 28th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There wasn’t a lot of data of significance around overnight, but the combination of a range of weak data prints fuelled some hope that the fed will cut sooner than markets had been moved towards. NAB’s Ray Attrill says a slight overnig…
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Australia’s inflationary shock and what it changes
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Thursday 27th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Yesterday’s inflation number for Australia was a big surprise, pushing up yields, particularly at the front end, and pushing back expectations for cuts by the RBA. Some commentators – not NAB – are arguing this reinforces the case fo…
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Canada’s turn for an upside inflation surprise
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Wednesday 26th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Canada’s inflation came in hotter than expected in May and that’s pushed up Canadian bond yields overnight, but there’s been limited reaction to that – or anything really – on currency markets. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the print has…
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NVIDIA’s correction, the Yen’s fall and the US-Europe divide
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Tuesday 25th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There are three broad themes on today’s podcast. First, a missed day on US equities again, with falls in the S&P and NASDAQ. NVIDIA shares are well down, but even a minor correction is only a deny in their upward trajectory this year.…
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Monday 24th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB PMIs on Friday continued to show the dichotomy between Europe and the US. Even within Europe we saw clear evidence of the weakness within Germany. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland what these latest PMI numbers mean for central banks. C…
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Weekend Edition: France’s shift right – a challenge for Europe?
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Friday 21st June 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. Markets reacted rather swiftly to the news that President Macron had called a snap election for France, just after his own party had been heavily beaten in the European elections by Marine …
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Friday 21st June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Europe is in the midst of the group rounds of the Euros, but when it comes to central bank cuts Switzerland is already the champion, with Britain the favourite to cut next. JBWere’s Sally Auld talks through yesterday’s decisions by the…
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Thursday 20th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The UK, which has seen inflation rise to one of the highest levels, is also one of the first to get it down to target, with the headline rate down at 2% yesterday. Even so, the Bank of England won’t cut rates when they meet today, al…
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Wednesday 19th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The most valuable company in the world is not Apple or Microsoft. It's NVIDIA. Can anyone stop them? Meanwhile, the RBA kept rates on hold but in a way that was more hawkish that expected. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the committee eve…
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France settles down, US equities hit new highs again
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Tuesday 18th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB French politics still has a long way to run, but markets have calmed down a bit on the hope that a LePen government might not be so radical. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says ECB chief economist calmed markets by suggesting there was nothing d…
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Monday 17th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Last week was dominated by two big stories. First ,the dichotomy between US inflation data and the downgrade of rate cuts predicted by the Fed. Secondly, the snap French election , which could turn about to be very bad news for Preside…
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Weekend Edition: Private credit markets – what to know
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Friday 14th June 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. There’s been growing interest in private credit markets lately. So, what exactly is it? Phil talks to Gillian Gordon, Head of Alternative Investments and Responsible Investing at JB Were, w…
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Friday 14th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB You might have expected that bond yields would start creeping back up again after the Fed’s hawkish ‘one dot plot’ meeting yesterday. Instead yields fell, as the latest producer prices echoed the softness in the CPI read before the Fed…
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Thursday 13th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It's been a fascinating session overnight. Early Wednesday US markets responded positively to weaker CPI numbers. Bond yields fell sharply, alongside a dip in the US dollar and more enthusiasm for equities. There must have been an ex…
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Wednesday 12th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A mixed set of numbers overnight. The UK’s employment numbers showed wage pressures remain, whilst the NAB business survey also demonstrated inflation stickiness. NAB’s Ray Attrill says wages are a lagging indicator, and you can’t j…
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Tuesday 11th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Non-farm payrolls came in a lot higher than expected in the US on Friday. Not only were there more people in jobs, but wages are also rising faster than expected. Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent how uncomfortable this will be for the Fe…
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Weekend Edition: Mookhey’s Balancing Act in Australia’s Most Unaffordable State
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Friday 7th June 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. On 18th June Daniel Mookhey, the NSW Treasurer, presents his second budget to the state parliament. This week he talks to Phil about the challenges he faces, starting with house prices. They…
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Friday 7th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The ECB cut interest rates as expected, but there’s no clear indication of when the next cut will come. NAB’s Gavin Friend says staff forecasts have pushed inflation higher. Hence, a hawkish cut. So much so, you wonder whether they woul…
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Thursday 6th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US equities hit new highs today and bond yields continued to fall. The Bank of Canada cut rates overnight with indications there will be more to follow. They pipped the ECB to the post, with their cut expected later today. Equities an…
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Wednesday 5th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond markets continue their rally, with yields down again this morning. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s in part down to the JOLTS data in the US overnight, which showed job openings slowing. That’s pushed forward expectations for Fed …
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Tuesday 4th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Longer end yields pushed higher overnight. NAB’s Skye Masters says it was in part down to softer manufacturing data from the US, although there’s a chance markets have overreacted to what was a pretty mixed picture. For example, whilst…
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Monday 3rd June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Europe’s core inflation number rose slightly on Friday. That won’t change the ECB’s bolted-on decision to cut rates this week, but the likelihood of more than one other cut this year is diminishing. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says Friday’s …
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Weekend Edition: How could Trump change the Fed?
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Friday 31st May 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. Assuming he stays out of prison, Donald Trump has an even chance of winning the next Presidency. What does that mean for the Fed? Trump has often argued for the need to keep interest rates l…
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Friday 31st May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Inflation is taking a long time to come down, everywhere it seems. Europe reports its CPI today, but the numbers from Germany and Spain have already shown it’s taking longer than expected. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about expectations aro…
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Thursday 30th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Australia’s monthly CPI reads are always to be treated cautiously. Nonetheless, the surprise rise in inflation did create a response on Asian markets, pushing Aussie yields higher. JBWere’s Sally Auld talks about how weaker bond deman…
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US bond appetite eases, consumer confidence lifts
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Tuesday 28th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There were two bond auctions in the US overnight – for 2 year and 5 year treasuries. Both saw weaker demand than expected. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton if investors are weary of the size of bond supply this year. Meanwhile US consumer …
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Tuesday 28th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a quiet 24 hours with the UK and US on holiday, with the bond and equity markets closed in each place. But Europe was open for business, although the German IFO numbers offered little to get excited about – staying in the sam…
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Monday 27th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Friday was a quiet end to the week, but the NSDAQ still managed to touch a new high. Bond markets closed early in the US, though, in readiness for a long weekend, that will see a slow start to this week. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says trade w…
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Weekend Edition: Tech. Too big to ignore? Or too much of a good thing?
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Friday 18th May 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. NVIDIA is now the third biggest listing in the US, with a market cap of 2.3 trillion dollars. Their earning results this week were an upside surprise for revenue, margins and forward guidanc…
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Are strong PMIs pushing cuts back even further?
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Friday 24th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Stronger than expected PMIs in the US – for manufacturing and services – have pushed bond yields higher. Equities, which started the session strong on the back of the NVIDIA earnings, have also fallen sharply today as pricing for rate c…
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End of rein for soaked Sunak , whilst NVIDIA storms ahead
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Thursday 23rd May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The UK Prime Minister stood out I the pouring rain to announce a July 4 election for the UK, months ahead of expectations. Perhaps he doesn’t think the economy will improve so he might as well go sooner. It comes on the same day as th…
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Wednesday 22nd May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Equities were quite contained a day out from the NVIDIA earnings, although the S&P did hit another all time high. Copper prices continue to rise from its new high on Monday. Phil asks Ray what’s driving this – real factors or a specu…
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Tuesday 21st May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s an absence of solid data. Maybe that’s why equity markets have reverted to AI-hype, ahead of NVIDIA earnings later in the week. There’s also been significant gains in the price of silver, gold and copper. Phil talks to NAB’s Ro…
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Monday 20th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s a quiet start today after a week that finished slowly. Skye Masters discusses how bond yields have been slowly rising, unwinding the moves after the surprise CPI growth earlier in the month. Central banks still seem to be doing the…
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