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Just one dot, even as US inflation dips
Manage episode 423257245 series 1400104
Content provided by NAB - The Morning Call and Phil Dobbie. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by NAB - The Morning Call and Phil Dobbie or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://player.fm/legal.
Thursday 13th June 2024
NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB
It's been a fascinating session overnight. Early Wednesday US markets responded positively to weaker CPI numbers. Bond yields fell sharply, alongside a dip in the US dollar and more enthusiasm for equities. There must have been an expectation that the numbers would be reflected in a more dovish approach by the Fed, but the dot plot from FOMC members told a very different story, with the median expectation for just one cut this year. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through the response, highlighted that the plot is a set of opinions, not a forecast and its he hard numbers that count. The next of those will be US producer prices out today, which fed into the PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. So, markets haven’t fully pulled back to their pre-CPI positions, but can we expect that if the producer prices aren’t as encouraging?
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
1156 episodes
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Manage episode 423257245 series 1400104
Content provided by NAB - The Morning Call and Phil Dobbie. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by NAB - The Morning Call and Phil Dobbie or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://player.fm/legal.
Thursday 13th June 2024
NAB Markets Research Disclaimer
Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB
It's been a fascinating session overnight. Early Wednesday US markets responded positively to weaker CPI numbers. Bond yields fell sharply, alongside a dip in the US dollar and more enthusiasm for equities. There must have been an expectation that the numbers would be reflected in a more dovish approach by the Fed, but the dot plot from FOMC members told a very different story, with the median expectation for just one cut this year. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through the response, highlighted that the plot is a set of opinions, not a forecast and its he hard numbers that count. The next of those will be US producer prices out today, which fed into the PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. So, markets haven’t fully pulled back to their pre-CPI positions, but can we expect that if the producer prices aren’t as encouraging?
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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A handpicked article read aloud from the latest issue of The Economist. Published weekdays from Monday to Thursday. If you’re already a subscriber to The Economist, you’ll have full access to all our shows as part of your subscription. For more information about Economist Podcasts+, including how to get access, please visit our FAQs page here https://myaccount.economist.com/s/article/What-is-Economist-Podcasts.
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