A series of unexpected outcomes

Economy Watch

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news of some unexpected outcomes.

The overnight dairy auction belied the futures market again somewhat, delivering modest rises across the board, probably because European production is sagging a bit more than expected. Demand from China was not strong, but other regions picked up the slack. Overall prices were up another +1.7% on top of the last auction's +3.3%. SMP rise +3.0% and WMP rose +1.7%. However with the NZD on the rise at the same time, the change in local currency was negligible (+0.3%). Still, overall price levels are back to where they were in October 2023.

This is all a bit of an outlier because commodity prices are generally retreating, both food and metals. The copper price is one making a rather fast reversal.

In the US, their Redbook index tracking retail sales on a same-store basis was up +5.8% last week from the same week a year ago.

Also up were US factory orders and by a bit more than was expected to be +3.4% more than year-ago levels in April. You may recall that the two US PMIs reported quite different tangents yesterday. Well this seems to suggest that the S&P Global/Markit version which indicated rising orders and an expanding sector is more confirmed than the negative ISM one.

The more up-beat mood was bolstered by a rise in the Logistics Managers Index. It jumped in May on the back of stronger shipments activity. This indicator has now expanded in 9 of the last 10 months and for the last six months in a row.

Meanwhile the April US JOLTS survey reported the number of job openings declined by -296,000 from the previous month to just under 8.1 mln, the lowest level since February 2021. So the upcoming weekend release of the US non-farms payrolls for May will have an edge to it.

Unexpectedly, it seems that Modi magic has faded for Indian voters. The ruling BJP isn't getting the landslide election result exit polls suggested. They will still be able to form a government but it will be a coalition with a somewhat chastened result that saw them lose their majority.

Elections are about to start in the EU next, and all eyes are on an expected swing to populists and far-right parties.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.33% and down another -7 bps from yesterday.

The price of gold will start today down -US$18 from yesterday at US$2330/oz.

Oil prices are down -50 USc at just on US$73.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just over US$77.50/bbl and a new four month low.

The Kiwi dollar starts today unchanged from yesterday at just under 61.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are another +¼c firmer at 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we are marginally firmer at 56.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 70.9, unchanged from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$70,644 and up almost +2.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest however at just on +/- 1.8%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.