Container freight rates hit 3x last year's level

Economy Watch

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news some think the first signs of a labour market in the US are showing.

Initial American actual jobless claims "jumped" last week to +235,000, above the expected +225,000 and to the highest level since August 2023. This may be the early signs that their labour market is softening somewhat, although there are only just over 1.7 mln people on these benefits, little-changed from a year ago and much lower than the more than 2 mln in mid-January.

Meanwhile American producer prices dipped in May from April to be +2.2% higher than year ago levels. There is no inflationary pressure from this sector, and to be fair there hasn't been any since February 2023. Even a month-on-month dip has happened frequently since mid-2022

There was another well supported UST 30yr bond auction earlier today with yields easing lower on the demand. The softer PPI and higher jobless claims may have influenced yields too. Today's median yield was 4.35%, and that compares with the prior equivalent event one month ago of 4.59%.

Later today we should get China's bank credit data, an important indicator of investment demand and economic activity.

And China is waiving entry visa requirements for New Zealand citizens, as part of the country’s drive to boost inbound tourism. That puts us on a par with Singapore, Malaysia, France and Thailand among others. Scheduled flights between the two nations are already more than before the pandemic and it turns out New Zealand is China's 15th largest source of tourists. Immigrants from China who settled here are making many trips back 'home' it seems.

EU industrial production sagged rather badly in April, down -3.0%^ from a year ago in the Euro Area, down -2.0% in the wider EU. A worsening from March was expected (-1.9%), but not by this much. Generally it is southern and eastern Europe doing much better than the northern group (but Denmark is an outier, doing the best of all).

Australian payrolls rose by almost +40,000 in May, more than the expected +30,000 rise. Full-time employment rose +41,700 and part-time jobs fell by -2,100. There are now 14.458 mln people in Australian jobs, 31.4% of them part-time and that is their highest level since mid-2021. (The highest ever was in October 2020.) Their actual jobless rate is now 3.9% and their participation rate 67.2%.

Although they still rose, international container freight rates were up 'only' +2% last week from the week before and seem to have topped out now. But that puts them +200% higher (three times higher) than at the same week in 2023. Fortunately bulk cargo rates are still holding at their long-term average levels.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.24% and down -6 bps from yesterday.

The price of gold will start today down -US$28 from yesterday at US$2301/oz.

Oil prices are unchanged at US$78/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is up +50 USc to just under US$82.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar starts today -20 bps softer at just under 61.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are +20 bps firmer at 93 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 57.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today little-changed at just under 71.2.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$66,888 and down -3.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at just on +/- 2.6%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.