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In Moscow's Shadows 183: War and Peace (and Public Opinion)
Manage episode 460684003 series 2660119
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We pundits have done more than our fair share speculating on whether, how, when and with what consequences there could be peace or a ceasefire in Ukraine, but instead it seems a good time to see what various research projects suggest about what ordinary Russians and Ukrainians think. This is something that is actually harder to ascertain than one might assume, but it important, not least for conditioning the decisions the respective governments may make.
The various articles and surveys I cite are:
Friedrich Ebert Stiftung : https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/wien/21742.pdf
Russian Field : https://russianfield.com/svo16
Gallup : https://news.gallup.com/poll/653495/half-ukrainians-quick-negotiated-end-war.aspx
Meduza : https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/01/09/we-expected-the-war-to-end
PS Lab : https://publicsociologylab.com/en
New Yorker : https://www.newyorker.com/news/a-reporter-at-large/do-russians-really-support-the-war-in-ukraine
Vedomosti : https://www.vedomosti.ru/society/articles/2024/12/25/1083523-vnimanie-cherez-silu
Ukrainska Pravda : https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/articles/2025/01/9/7492626/
Russia Post : https://russiapost.info/politics/ceasefire
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
225 episodes
ShareManage episode 460684003 series 2660119
Content provided by Mark Galeotti. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Mark Galeotti or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://player.fm/legal.
We pundits have done more than our fair share speculating on whether, how, when and with what consequences there could be peace or a ceasefire in Ukraine, but instead it seems a good time to see what various research projects suggest about what ordinary Russians and Ukrainians think. This is something that is actually harder to ascertain than one might assume, but it important, not least for conditioning the decisions the respective governments may make.
The various articles and surveys I cite are:
Friedrich Ebert Stiftung : https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/wien/21742.pdf
Russian Field : https://russianfield.com/svo16
Gallup : https://news.gallup.com/poll/653495/half-ukrainians-quick-negotiated-end-war.aspx
Meduza : https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/01/09/we-expected-the-war-to-end
PS Lab : https://publicsociologylab.com/en
New Yorker : https://www.newyorker.com/news/a-reporter-at-large/do-russians-really-support-the-war-in-ukraine
Vedomosti : https://www.vedomosti.ru/society/articles/2024/12/25/1083523-vnimanie-cherez-silu
Ukrainska Pravda : https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/articles/2025/01/9/7492626/
Russia Post : https://russiapost.info/politics/ceasefire
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.
225 episodes
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In Moscow's Shadows
1 In Moscow's Shadows 204: The Opportunity and the Threat, Moscow and Iran, Moscow and the West 56:34
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn the first half, I explore what the eruption of open conflict between Israel and Iran means for Russia. Will Putin be tempted to throw Iran under the bus? He certainly has much more scope and reason to do so than in 2022-24. In the second half, I climb onto my soapbox to consider -- criticise -- some recent rhetoric about the Russian threat and bemoan the lack of dialogue, especially military-to-military contacts, with praise for the wargame Littoral Commander: the Baltics (Dietz Foundation) and David Fields & Robert Avery’s book The Royal And Russian Navies. Cooperation, Competition & Confrontation (Manchester UP). The Spectator piece I mentioned is here . The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here . Support the show…
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In Moscow's Shadows
1 In Moscow's Shadows 203: Can Putin Afford To End The War? 57:05
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedA pervasive argument is that for reasons personal, political or economic, Putin simply cannot afford to end his war: that he needs the excuse for tyranny, or that his economy would stagnate. I dig into these and other claims, and - spoiler alert - conclude that Putin could certainly afford to end the war... but that there are enough challenges to peace that he may not dare to. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here . Support the show…
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In Moscow's Shadows
1 In Moscow's Shadows 202: What Is This Resilience Thing Anyway? 57:18
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedAn IMS on a Thursday? Although I'm still not quite yet over the cold that stopped me recording on Sunday, as I can't record next Sunday, needs must... In the first part, I look at recent development around Ukraine. Then, in the second, I look at the recent 'electoral wargame' held by Conducttr and spin off that more broadly to consider the challenges of 'resiliency' in a political sense (rather than infrastructure, etc) Robert Hall's book is here . The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here . Support the show…
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In Moscow's Shadows
1 In Moscow's Shadows 201: Peacetalkers and Warfighters 50:21
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedNegotiations (of a sort) in Istanbul: a real engagement or just a piece of theatre? The answer, of course, is a bit of both. And what can one read into the elevation of Colonel General Mordvichev as the new commander of Russian Ground Forces? The link to the Conducttr wargame I mention is here . The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here . Support the show…
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In Moscow's Shadows
1 In Moscow's Shadows 200: Victory Day (whose?) 44:06
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedThe 200th episode! Hard to believe. After briefly assessing Putin's late-night offer of talks with Kyiv, I dig into the Victory Day parade and what it means, especially from an international angle, and how it was part of a love letter to Xi Jinping. The events I mentioned next week in Prague are at CEVRO University , the Institute of International Relations and the Prague Book Festival , with the launch of Zrozeni z Války , the Czech translation of my book Forged in War . The forthcoming events page on my blog is here . The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here . Support the show…
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In Moscow's Shadows
1 In Moscow's Shadows 199: the General in GenPop 49:33
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedGeneral Ivan Popov, once hailed as one of the heroes and rising stars of the Russian army, has just been sentenced to 5 years in a general regime penal colony on what seem questionable charges. What brought down this 'fighting general' -- and what does it tell us about late Putinism and the potential nationalist critique of the regime? The sign-up page for the Conducttr info-political wargame I mentioned is here . The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here . Support the show…
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In Moscow's Shadows
1 In Moscow's Shadows 198: War (in Russia's underworld) and Peace (in Ukraine)? 53:18
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn the first half, I consider the latest twists in the saga of the US-pushed 'ceasefire' plan. Has Trump has an epiphany in the Vatican, or will Kyiv still face a choice of evils? In the second, I draw a line between the gunning down of a mobster in Tbilisi with the twilight of Putinism, through leaking roofs and the likelihood of mob wars. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here . Support the show…
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In Moscow's Shadows
1 In Moscow's Shadows 197: Russia's future fascist turn? 50:12
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedAn intemperate recent interview from Foreign Minister Lavrov, at which he warned that 'fifth columnists' within the elite wanted to hand Russia to the West on a platter, is typical of a new tome of populist nationalism that got me wondering. Putin's Russia is often called 'fascist' but this is a label of dubious accuracy. Are there hints that Russia could turn fascist? I still think this will not happen, but it is something worth exploring. The Bell , by the way, is here . The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here . Support the show…
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In Moscow's Shadows
1 In Moscow's Shadows 196: Space, the Failing Frontier 48:10
48:10 Play Later Play Later Lists Like Liked48:10
Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedIn the first half, I look at developments regarding Ukraine (I'm getting more sceptical about Putin's interest in a deal) and profile former FSB general Sergei Beseda, 'the Baron.' In the second half, for Cosmonautics Day, I look at the ailing Russian space programme. The FPRI report by Pavel Luzin I mention is here . The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here . Support the show…
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In Moscow's Shadows
A bonus second batch of questions, relating to war, peace and my attitudes to social media! The CASE survey of emigre attitudes is here . The RUSI commentary on the OSCE is here . The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here . Support the show…
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In Moscow's Shadows
Comrades! Forgive the tedious title, but this episode is the first of two answering questions set by my esteemed Patrons, covering Russian domestic and foreign policy, with another to follow covering the war and more. Climate change and oligarchic rivalry, Belarusian cunning and Central Asian balancing, all this and a lot more... The Washington Post article ‘Art of dissent: How Russians protest the war on Ukraine’ is here . The National Guard report I mention, Putin's Praetorians: The Evolving Role Of The National Guard And Their Capacity To Control The Streets , is here . The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here . Support the show…
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In Moscow's Shadows
1 In Moscow's Shadows 193: Mishustin's Annual Report: what he says, what he doesn't 58:59
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedOne, I suspect, more for the wonks. I dig into Prime Minister Mishustin's lengthy and not-so-exciting annual report to parliament, and the responses from the 'opposition' for what is said, and what's not. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here . Support the show…
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In Moscow's Shadows
1 In Moscow's Shadows 192: What if Ukraine could join the EU in months, not years? 58:09
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedLithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda has suggested Ukraine should be allowed into the EU on 1 January 2030 (by which time the war will be over or frozen...). What if it could be in months not years? It won't happen, for all kinds of reasons, but let's entertain it as a 'what if?' thought experiment. PS: I got my digits muddled: it's Article 42, clause 7 of the Treaty if Europe I ment, not 47(7). In the second half, I look at three recent deeply-engaged eyewitness books on Ukraine: · Battleground Ukraine by Adrian Karatnicky (Yale Up, 2024) · Our Enemies Will Vanish by Yaroslav Trofimov (Michael Joseph 2024) · I Will Show You How It Was by Illia Ponomarenko (Bloomsbury, 2024) The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here . Support the show…
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In Moscow's Shadows
1 In Moscow's Shadows 191: How is Russian Foreign Policy Made? 51:57
51:57 Play Later Play Later Lists Like Liked51:57
Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedWhat shapes Russian foreign policy? I start by looking at the core issue of the moment, Moscow's thinking over the proposed ceasefire, then consider more broadly what kind of a bizarre and varied mix of institutions and individuals actually shape policy. The Sunday Times article I mention is here . The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here . Support the show…
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In Moscow's Shadows
1 In Moscow's Shadows 190: Sanctions, Spies, and Suspect Legitimacy 51:02
51:02 Play Later Play Later Lists Like Liked51:02
Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedReflecting the chaotic and fast-moving nature of the times, another podcast of two parts. In the first, looking at various issues of the week, from Trump's apparent threat to increase sanctions on Russia to a spy case in the UK. In the second half, I look at two recent books, Political Legitimacy and Traditional Values in Putin's Russia , edited by Helge Blakkisrud & Pål Kolstø (Edinburgh UP) and Jeremy Morris’s Everyday Politics in Russia. From Resentment to Resistance , (Bloomsbury) and use them to spin off a discussion about legitimacy in modern Russia. The piece ‘Recycling to resist,’ I mentioned by Alexandrina Vanke, is in the Sociological Review here . The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here . Support the show…
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