Sahm Rule Triggered, Are We In A Recession? | Claudia Sahm

On The Margin

In this episode, Claudia Sahm joins the show to discuss her namesake recession indicator the Sahm Rule. We deep dive into unemployment, whether or not we are in a recession, and how the Federal Reserve should be reacting. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:13) What is the Sahm Rule?

(06:29) Sahm Rule Triggered

(08:37) Purpose of the Sahm Rule

(10:20) Are We in a Recession?

(14:05) Mantra Ad

(15:18) Unemployment Dynamics of the Sahm Rule

(18:16) Unemployment Dynamics of a Recession

(21:22) Sahm Rule 2.0

(22:56) Blame the Fed, Not the Sahm Rule

(24:35) July Unemployment Report

(32:10) Permissionless Ad

(32:49) How the Fed Looks at the Labor Market

(38:14) Should the Fed be Cutting Rates?

(40:38) Are We Heading for a Hard Landing?

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.