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Strategic Empathy & the Roots of the Ukraine War
Manage episode 472059923 series 2994592
Content provided by The Cato Institute and Cato Institute. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by The Cato Institute and Cato Institute or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://player.fm/legal.
Barry Posen, professor of political science at MIT, argues that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 qualifies as a preventive war and was motivated in part to thwart U.S.-led efforts to expand NATO in Europe. He responds to detractors from this view and also discusses the partial political responsibility of U.S. leaders, the difference between explaining the war and justifying it, the lack of strategic empathy in U.S. foreign policy, how best to negotiate the end of the war, and whether the U.S. is making a similar mistake in incentivizing preventive war logic in Beijing with respect to Taiwan.
Show Notes
- Barry R. Posen, “Putin's Preventive War: The 2022 Invasion of Ukraine,” International Security 2025; 49 (3): 7–49.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
208 episodes
ShareManage episode 472059923 series 2994592
Content provided by The Cato Institute and Cato Institute. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by The Cato Institute and Cato Institute or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://player.fm/legal.
Barry Posen, professor of political science at MIT, argues that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 qualifies as a preventive war and was motivated in part to thwart U.S.-led efforts to expand NATO in Europe. He responds to detractors from this view and also discusses the partial political responsibility of U.S. leaders, the difference between explaining the war and justifying it, the lack of strategic empathy in U.S. foreign policy, how best to negotiate the end of the war, and whether the U.S. is making a similar mistake in incentivizing preventive war logic in Beijing with respect to Taiwan.
Show Notes
- Barry R. Posen, “Putin's Preventive War: The 2022 Invasion of Ukraine,” International Security 2025; 49 (3): 7–49.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
208 episodes
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Samuel Seitz, a fellow at MIT’s Security Studies Program, explores so-called “madman behavior” in international politics and whether it’s effective in gaining leverage in international confrontations. He explains why problems of signaling, credibility, and reassurance tend to make madman tactics ineffective and he discusses examples from the Cold War to Trump’s first and second administrations. Show Notes Samuel Seitz, Caitlin Talmadge, “ The Predictable Hazards of Unpredictability: Why Madman Behavior Doesn’t Work ,” The Washington Quarterly 43:3, 2020. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
1 Gen Z, Internationalism, & Change in Foreign Policy 38:57
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedChristopher Chivvis and Lauren Morganbesser of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discuss the foreign policy attitudes of Gen Z, the relationship between public opinion and foreign policy, and the increasing salience of transnational issues, among other topics. Show Notes Christopher Chilis and Lauren Morganbesser, “ What Gen Z Thinks about U.S. Foreign Policy, ” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 17, 2025 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Trita Parsi, Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, talks about the Trump administration’s diplomacy with Iran. He discusses the failures of the first Trump administration’s and the Biden administration’s approaches to Iran, why Trump’s second time around could lead to a new nuclear deal, Iran’s changing regional geopolitical position, and why a more peaceful US-Iran relationship serves US interests in the Middle East. Show Notes Trita Parsi, “ Why Trump’s Iran Diplomacy May Work ,” Time , April 11, 2025. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Alexander Wendt, political scientist at Ohio State University, discusses his forthcoming book The Last Humans: UFOs & National Security, on the political and national security consequences of discovering that Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAPs) are piloted by intelligent extra-terrestrial life. He argues that the ontological shock from this discovery risks triggering a civilizational “auto-immune reaction” of widespread disorder that could undermine the international state system and suggests possible policies and pathways to responsibly prepare for this scenario. Show Notes Alexander Wendt, The Last Humans: UFOs and National Security (forthcoming from Oxford University Press) Alexander Wendt, Raymond Duvall, “ Sovereignty and the UFO ,” Political Theory , 36(4), 607-633. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
1 Why America Needs to Change Its Nuclear Weapons Posture 47:14
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedThe Stimson Center’s Christopher Preble and Geoff Wilson argue that nuclear weapons modernization programs are wasteful boondoggles that undermine deterrence and stability while serving as a give-away to parochial interests. They discuss a “deterrence first” posture on nuclear weapons, perverse incentives in the bureaucracy, profligate waste and inefficiency, the risks of nuclear escalation, the consequences of eroding nuclear deterrence, and threat inflation on China, among other issues. Show Notes Geoff Wilson, Christopher Preble, Lucas Ruiz, “ Gambling on Armageddon: How US Nuclear Policies are Undercutting Deterrence and Lowering the Threshold for Nuclear War ,” Stimson Center Report, February 19, 2025. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
T.V. Paul, professor of international relations at McGill University, talks about his recent book Unfinished Quest: India’s Search for Major Power Status from Nehru to Modi . Paul discusses India’s international status, the push for permanent membership on the UN Security Council, India’s military capabilities and “reactive grand strategy,” India’s complex relations with Russia and China, how some of India’s domestic problems hamper its international ambitions, and strategic management of the U.S.-Indian relationship, among other topics. Show Notes T.V. Paul, Unfinished Quest: India’s Search for Major Power Status from Nehru to Modi , (Oxford University Press, 2024). Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
1 Strategic Empathy & the Roots of the Ukraine War 50:49
50:49 Play Later Play Later Lists Like Liked50:49
Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedBarry Posen, professor of political science at MIT, argues that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 qualifies as a preventive war and was motivated in part to thwart U.S.-led efforts to expand NATO in Europe. He responds to detractors from this view and also discusses the partial political responsibility of U.S. leaders, the difference between explaining the war and justifying it, the lack of strategic empathy in U.S. foreign policy, how best to negotiate the end of the war, and whether the U.S. is making a similar mistake in incentivizing preventive war logic in Beijing with respect to Taiwan. Show Notes Barry R. Posen, “ Putin's Preventive War: The 2022 Invasion of Ukraine ,” International Security 2025; 49 (3): 7–49. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Jennifer Lind, Associate Professor at Dartmouth College, argues that China’s rise now means the world is back to a bipolar balance of power. She provides insight into how U.S. foreign policy should manage this new reality and discusses why polarity is important, how to measure the balance of power, how stable unipolar, bipolar, and multipolar systems are, the major points of conflict between the US and China, and what to do about Taiwan, among other topics. Show Notes Jennifer Lind, “ Back to Bipolarity: How China's Rise Transformed the Balance of Power ,” International Security 2024; 49 (2): 7–55. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Miranda Priebe, senior political scientist at RAND, discusses US strategy towards Europe and Asia and how to manage relations with Russia and China. She talks about changes to US posture towards Europe and Russia following the Ukraine war, NATO strategy, how to manage the Russia-China relationship, and potential changes to US posture in Asia, particularly towards Taiwan. She also touches upon the ‘isolationist’ label, the complicated politics of restraint, and how to put diplomacy at the forefront of US foreign policy, among other topics. Show Notes Miranda Priebe, Jasen Castillo, “ Here’s why Trump’s foreign policy is hard to pin down ,” MSNBC.com, December 28, 2024. Miranda Priebe, John Schuessler, Bryan Rooney, Jasen Castillo; “ Competing Visions of Restraint .” International Security 2024; 49 (2): 135–169. Miranda Priebe and Sam Charap, :” Will Putin Stop at Ukraine? That’s the Wrong Question .” The Washington Quarterly , 47(3), 143–159. Miranda Priebe, et al. “ Like-Minded Allies? Indo-Pacific Partners' Views on Possible Changes in the U.S. Relationship with Taiwan .” Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2023. Miranda Priebe and Sam Charan, “ Planning for the Aftermath: Assessing Options for U.S. Strategy Toward Russia After the Ukraine War .” Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2024. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Oona Hathaway, professor of international law at Yale University, addresses President Trump’s plans to expand US territory into Greenland, the Panama Canal, and Canada. She discusses international law, the causes of the decline in interstate war, the difference between norms and laws, the problem of enforcement, tensions between norms against conquest and the need for a negotiated peace in the Russia-Ukraine war, among other topics. Show Notes Oona A. Hathaway, Scott J. Shapiro, The Internationalists: How a Radical Plan to Outlaw War Remade the World , Simon & Schuster, 2017. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Sam Bresnick, Research Fellow at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology, discusses artificial intelligence in the context of the US-China relationship. He explains how AI will be used by states in coming years and compares different obstacles and advantages that both the US and China have in their competition to develop AI and its various applications. Among other topics, he also discusses diplomatic pathways for the US and China to avoid dangerous AI scenarios. Show Notes Sam Bresnick, “ The Obstacles to China’s AI Power, ” Foreign Affairs, December 31, 2024 Sam Bresnick, et al., “ Which Ties Will Bind? ” CSET Issue Brief, February 2024 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
1 Perverse Incentives in the Permanent War Economy 39:46
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedJulia Gledhill, Research Associate for the National Security Reform Program at the Stimson Center, discusses the “permanent war economy” and ongoing efforts to increase military spending. She also talks about perverse incentives for defense contractors, the myth that military spending is properly construed as a jobs program, and the lack of strategic thinking in policy debates on how to confront China, among other issues. Show Notes Julia Gledhill, “ The Truth about the Permanent War Economy, ” Stimson Center Issue Brief, December 2, 2024. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Anatol Lieven, Director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, discusses how the international politics of the Ukraine war have changed since Trump’s election win, how to move towards negotiations to end the war, and the various issues - from territory to NATO membership - to be resolved in any peace deal. Show Notes Anatol Lieven, “ Three Conditions for a US-Backed Peace Agreement in Ukraine ,” UnHerd , November 30, 2024. Anatol Lieven, George Beebe, “ The Diplomatic Path to a Secure Ukraine ,” Quincy Paper #13, February 16, 2024. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
1 The Fall of Assad & Syria's Uncertain Future 46:55
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedJoshua Landis, professor of Middle East studies at the University of Oklahoma, discusses the recent rebel advances in Syria, the causes and conditions that paved the way for the fall of the Assad regime, the many mistakes of US policy since the start of the civil war, and the regional politics wrapped up in Syria’s future. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Stephen Walt, professor of international relations at Harvard University, discusses the foreign policy implications of Trump’s victory, the extent to which it represents a rejection of “Liberal Hegemony,” and why Trump failed in his first term to set U.S. foreign policy on a new course. He also discusses the bureaucratic challenges of reforming foreign policy, what to expect from Trump in the second term, and the potentially beneficial constraints of “American decline,” among other topics. Show Notes Stephen M. Walt, “ The 10 Foreign Policy Implications of the 2024 Election ,” Foreign Policy , November 8, 2024. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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Stephen Wertheim, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Brandan P. Buck, research fellow at the Cato Institute, discuss the impact of foreign policy in Trump’s electoral victory, whether Democrats will rethink their foreign policy agenda following their losses, what changes Trump might make with respect to the wars in Europe and the Middle East and towards China, among other topics. Show Notes Christopher S. Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim, “ America’s Foreign Policy Inertia ,” Foreign Affairs, October 14, 2024 Brandan P. Buck, “ Harris Embrace of Cheney Goes Back to World War I ,” Responsible Statecraft, October 22, 2024 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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1 The Trouble with Tariffs and the Future of Trade 46:14
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedScott Lincicome, vice president of general economics at the Cato Institute, discusses America’s new regime of high protective tariffs under the Trump and Biden administrations and assesses what may be to come on trade policy under a future Trump or Harris administration. He discusses the overly expansive authorities presidents have to impose tariffs, the weakness of commonly employed national security justifications for them, and the economics of why tariffs fail, among other topics. Show Notes Clark Packard and Scott Lincicome, " Presidential Tariff Powers and the Need for Reform ," Cato Institute Briefing Paper No. 179, October 9, 2024 Scott Lincicome, " Six-Plus Years of Incoherent, Ineffective China Policy ," The Dispatch , October 2, 2024 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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Alex Yu-Ting Lin, Assistant Director and Senior Research Fellow at the University of Notre Dame’s International Security Center, explains how China’s concerns about status interact with smaller regional states and how that in turn helps shape the US-China rivalry. He examines how states use information warfare to delegitimize adversaries’ foreign policies and applies his analysis to US-China relations. He also discusses Euro-centric bias in international relations studies, China’s approach to flashpoints like the South China Sea and Taiwan, and whether China should be considered “revisionist,” among other topics. Show Notes Alex Yu-Ting Lin, "Contestation from Below: Status and Revisionism in Hierarchy," International Studies Quarterly, Volume 68, Issue 3 (2024). Alex “Yu-Ting Lin, “US Bias in the Study of Asian Security: Using Europe to Ignore Asia," Journal of Global Security Studies , Volume 4, Issue 3 (2019): 393-401. (with David C. Kang) Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Dov Levin, Associate Professor of International Relations at the University of Hong Kong, examines the effects of whataboutism - essentially, charges of U.S. hypocrisy - on Americans’ foreign policy views. He explains his survey experiments to test the effectiveness of whatbaoutism on US public opinion and how it might shape policy. He also discusses his work on U.S. foreign election interference, the academic literature on hypocrisy costs, U.S. foreign policy activism, and avenues for future research on whataboutism. Show Notes Wilfred Chow and Dov Levin, “ The Diplomacy of Whataboutism and US Foreign Policy Attitudes, ” International Organization Volume 78, Issue 1, Winter 2024, pp. 103-133. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Peter Harris critiques America’s grand strategy of primacy and advocates for a move to restraint that necessarily includes wholesale reforms to domestic as well as foreign policy. He explains why primacy has persisted despite the wisdom of retrenchment and how decades of an expansive foreign policy has shaped American politics, culture, and institutions. He also discusses the problems of vested interests, partisanship, and how to make restraint more salable to the public. Show Notes Peter Harris, Why America Can’t Retrench (and How it Might) , Polity Press, 2024. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Daniel DePetris and Jennifer Kavanagh of Defense Priorities discuss the latest iteration of the Axis of Evil threat, this time in reference to China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, and argue their relationship is misconstrued and overhyped. They discuss threat inflation, the relationship dynamics among these four powers, including China and Russia’s relationship and how US posture has pushed them together, the state of the Russia-Ukraine war, China’s role in the Middle East, the problem of prioritizing threats and interests under primacy, and how to constructively think about core US national interests, among other issues. Show Notes Daniel DePetris and Jennifer Kavanagh, “ The ‘Axis of Evil’ is Overhyped ,” Foreign Policy, August 14, 2024. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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The Stimson Center’s Senior Fellow Dan Grazier and Research Associate Julia Gledhill analyze U.S. defense spending and explain how the Pentagon is creating “a budgetary time bomb set to explode in the next twenty years.” They discuss several examples of failed over-budget weapons acquisition programs and warn that future such fiascos are now in the making, with unsustainable budgetary implications, unless crucial reforms to U.S. defense and foreign policy are made. Show Notes Dan Grazier, Julia Gledhill, Geoff Wilson, “ Current Defense Plans Require Unsustainable Future Spending ”, Stimson Center Issue Brief, July 16, 2024. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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1 The Rising Costs of Overseas Military Bases 58:12
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedRenanah Joyce, Assistant Professor at Georgetown University, and Brian Blankenship, Assistant Professor at the University of Miami, explain how great power competition for foreign military bases in third-party host countries increases the costs of securing access. They discuss the strategy behind US forward basing over time, expansion into Africa in recent years, different ways of providing compensation to host countries, increasing competition for host country access, the lack of transparency on US overseas presence, and the strategic utility (or lack thereof) of overseas basing. Show Notes: Renanah Miles Joyce & Brian Blankenship (2024) “ The Market for Foreign Bases ,” Security Studies , 33(2), 194-223. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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1 Security Dilemmas, Great Powers, & International Order 54:23
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedCharles Glaser, senior fellow at MIT’s Security Studies program and professor emeritus at George Washington University, discusses the dynamics of the security dilemma and international order. He explores how the security dilemma concept provides insights into America’s rivalry with its two great power rivals, Russia and China, and discusses U.S. policy with respect to the war in Ukraine, the dispute over Taiwan, U.S. interests vs commitments in East Asia, how to trim undesirable commitments, and why Washington’s flawed “liberal international order” concept leads to more conflictual foreign policies. Show Notes Charles L. Glaser, “ Fear Factor, ” Foreign Affairs , June 18, 2024 Charles L. Glaser, “ Washington is Avoiding the Tough Questions on Taiwan and China ,” Foreign Affairs , April 28, 2021 Charles L. Glaser “ A Flawed Framework: Why the Liberal International Order Concept is Misguided ,” International Security , Vol. 43, No. 4 (Spring 2019), pp. 51-87. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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Benjamin Friedman, policy director at Defense Priorities, argues that the United States should immediately begin withdrawing military forces from Europe to set the stage for European defense autonomy. He discusses the history of NATO, how it’s strategic purposes have evolved over time, what NATO costs America, defensibility problems with some Eastern European members, institutional inertia, differing threat assessments of Russia, and burden-sharing vs burden-dropping, among other topics. Benjamin Friedman, " A New NATO Agenda: Less U.S., Less Dependency ," Defense Priorities, July 8, 2024. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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Emma Ashford, senior fellow at the Stimson Center, discusses recent escalations in the Ukraine war, the costs to the United States and European partners of supporting Kyiv, the effect of the conflict on Russia’s economy, the problems with Biden’s strategy, why it’s unlikely Ukraine can achieve total victory, the timing of ceasefire diplomacy and peace talks, how early negotiations proved the significance of Ukraine’s neutrality as a core issue of the war, the wayward mission of NATO and the future of the alliance, and why it’s not in US interests to bring Ukraine into NATO, among other issues. Show Notes Emma Ashford, “ Testing Assumptions About the War in Ukraine ,” Stimson Center Policy Memo, May 23, 2024 Emma Ashford, Joshua Shifrinson, Stephen Wertheim, “ What Does America Want in Ukraine ,” Foreign Policy, May 8, 2024 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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Rachel Metz, assistant professor of political science at George Washington University, explains why security assistance, one of the most ubiquitous programs in U.S. foreign policy, so often fails. She argues that bureaucratic interests, organizational processes, and perverse dynamics of civil-military relations discourage conditioning U.S. support for partner militaries. She also discusses the role of norms in the U.S. Army, the need for greater civilian oversight and management, why the policymakers need to be more selective about security assistance, and how U.S. political leaders have expanded the military’s roles and responsibilities to the detriment of an effective U.S. strategy. Show Notes Rachel Tecott Metz; “ The Cult of the Persuasive: Why U.S. Security Assistance Fails ,” International Security 2022/2023; 47 (3): 95–135. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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1 Classical Realism, Purpose, and the Rise of China 50:22
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedJonathan Kirshner, professor of political science and international studies at Boston College, discusses his most recent book, An Unwritten Future: Realism and Uncertainty in World Politics . Kirshner provides fundamental critiques of structural realism and offensive realism and argues for classical realism’s greater explanatory power and firmer theoretical underpinnings. He also covers rationalist explanations for war, the role of change and uncertainty in world politics, the rise of China, and why effective grand strategy requires a healthy politics, among other topics. Show Notes Jonathan Kirshner, An Unwritten Future: Realism and Uncertainty in World Politics , Princeton University Press, 2022. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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1 The Trouble with US Support for Israel & Ukraine 56:46
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedMark Hannah, senior fellow at the Institute for Global Affairs, the nonprofit housed at the Eurasia Group, and host of the None of the Above podcast, argues that President Biden has not used the leverage US support provides over Israel in its war in Gaza and Ukraine in its war with Russia, prolonging the conflicts instead of imposing real conditions and pressing for negotiated resolutions. He discusses the recently passed aid bill, Israel’s planned attack on Rafah and Biden’s threat to withhold aid, and the politics within each party over Israel and Ukraine, as well as the American addiction to war and tendency to construe international conflicts in simplified Manichean terms, among other issues. Show Notes Mark Hannah, “ Biden needs to get real with Ukraine and Israel ,” CNN, April 26, 2024 Mark Hannah, “ Straight Talk on the Country’s War Addiction ,” New York Times , February 18, 2023 Mark Hannah, “ Why Is the Wartime Press Corps So Hawkish ,” Foreign Policy , March 30, 2022 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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David Sterman, senior policy analyst at New America’s Future Security Program, tracks U.S. counter-terrorism airstrikes, particularly with drones. He discusses the history of drone strikes in post-9/11 U.S. counter-terrorism policy from Bush to Biden, the issue of civilian casualties, Biden’s quiet use of drone strikes in Yemen and Somalia, the 2001 Authorization for the Use of Military Force, the problems of threat inflation and secrecy in covert strikes, defining endless war, and reform proposals for how to rein in America’s unachievable objectives and make U.S. counter-terrorism operations more transparent. Show Notes David Sterman, “ How Many People Does the US Assess it Killed in Somalia in 2023 ?,” NewAmerica.org, April 2, 2024 David Sterman, “ The United States Should Provide a Detailed Accounting of its Operations in Yemen ,” NewAmerica.org, August 3, 2023 David Sterman, “ Endless War Challenges Analysis of Drone Strike Effectiveness ,” Journal of National Security Law and Policy , May 6, 2023 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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1 Regional "Push Factors" in the Emigration Upsurge 43:20
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedJames Bosworth, founder of Hxagon and columnist at World Politics Review , discusses the various "push factors" throughout Latin America and the Caribbean driving the recent upsurge in migration to the US-Mexico border. He covers US-Mexico relations as well as gang violence, poor governance problems, and other instability in Haiti, Venezuela, Cuba, Ecuador, and beyond. Bosworth also discusses the transnational network dynamics of criminal organizations throughout the region, including their involvement in human trafficking, and argues that only an internationally coordinated approach within the hemisphere can mitigate such problems. Finally, he explains why the US's drug war approach to the region is misguided and provides recommendations for how DC can better approach this hemisphere's problems. Show Notes James Bosworth at World Politics Review Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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1 Reevaluating the "Special Relationship" with Israel 33:58
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedJon Hoffman, foreign policy analyst at the Cato Institute and adjunct professor at George Mason University, argues for a fundamental reevaluation of the U.S.'s "special relationship" with Israel. He discusses the dire scale of Israel's siege of Gaza and why it qualifies as collective punishment, Israel's lack of clear military objectives in Gaza and plans to attack Rafah, and the widespread regional ramifications of the conflict. He also talks about the negative consequences of unwavering US support for Israel, the military-heavy US approach to the Middle East, the Abraham Accords and Biden's prospective normalization deal with Israel and Saudi Arabia, and explains what having a "normalized" U.S.-Israel relationship would look like. Show Notes Jon Hoffman bio Jon Hoffman, " Israel is a Strategic Liability for the United States ," ForeignPolicy.com, March 22, 2024 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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1 The Economics of Great Power War & Peace 1:08:05
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedDale Copeland, professor of international relations at the University of Virginia and author of the new book A World Safe for Commerce: American Foreign Policy From the Revolution to the Rise of China , talks about his "dynamic realism" theory of great power war and peace, emphasizing the critical causal role of future trade expectations. Copeland discusses case studies from the American Revolutionary War to the Spanish-American War and the beginnings of the Cold War and then applies his theory to U.S.-China relations across a range of policy areas, with important insights into how to avert a catastrophic war. Show Notes Dale Copeland bio A World Safe for Commerce Economic Interdependence and War The Origins of Major War Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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Stephen Wertheim, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, discusses the lack of strategic focus in the Biden administration's foreign policy and argues that genuine prioritization requires retrenchment. The U.S. should draw down from Europe and the Middle East, he argues, and step away from formal security commitments there in order to avoid getting entangled in conflicts where U.S. interests are not vital. He also discusses Biden's maladroit approach to East Asian security, particularly Taiwan, the failure of his "democracy vs autocracy" rhetoric, and the prospects for a negotiated resolution to the war in Ukraine, among other topics. Show Notes Stephen Wertheim bio Stephen Wertheim, " Why America Can't Have it All ," Foreign Affairs , February 14, 2024 Stephen Wertheim, " Biden's Democracy-Defense Credo Does Not Serve U.S. Interests ," The Atlantic , January 23, 2024 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Paul Poast, associate professor of political science at University of Chicago, discusses the concept of hegemony in international relations and puts forth several models to explain a state's willingness to take on the global responsibilities of a hegemon. He also explains hegemonic stability theory, analyzes the Biden administration's democracy vs autocracy rhetoric, and suggests the United States may be a hegemon in decline. Show Notes Paul Poast bio Paul Poast, " Don't Blame Lack of Will for the United States' Waning Hegemony, " World Politics Review , January 26, 2024 Paul Poast, " Biden's 'Defending Democracy' Agenda is All Talk ," World Politics Review, February 2, 2024. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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Power Problems
1 Elite Politics & the Hawkish Bias in US Foreign Policy 1:02:44
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedElite politics shape and constrain democratic leaders in decisions about the use of force and tend to induce a hawkish bias into war-time foreign policy. So says Columbia University professor Elizabeth N. Saunders in her forthcoming book The Insider's Game: How Elites Make War and Peace. She explores how elite politics influenced presidential decisions in U.S. wars including Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and beyond. She also discusses the problems of the public's rational ignorance of foreign policy and the tensions between an elite-centric foreign policy and democratic values, among other topics. Elizabeth N. Saunders bio Elizabeth N. Saunders, The Insider’s Game: How Elites Make War and Peace (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2024). Forthcoming. Elizabeth N. Saunders, “ Elites in the Making and Breaking of Foreign Policy ,” Annual Review of Political Science 25 (May 2022): pp. 219-240. Chaim Kauffman, “ Threat Inflation and the Failure of the Marketplace of Ideas: The Selling of the Iraq War ,” International Security 29, no. 1 (Summer 2004): pp. 5-48. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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1 Managing Instability in Europe, Asia, & the Middle East 42:40
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedRobert Manning, distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center, discusses the increasing instability in the Middle East stemming from the ongoing Israel-Gaza war, Russia's war in Ukraine and the implications for the US role in the world, and rising US-China tensions over Taiwan. He also talks about the risks of emerging economic nationalism, middle powers, the US addiction to primacy and American exceptionalism, and the problems of trying to manage global politics from Washington. Show Notes Robert Manning bio Matthew Burrows and Robert A. Manning, “ The ‘New’ New Middle East and Its Consequences ,” Stimson Center, October 11, 2023. Robert A. Manning and Matthew Burrows, “ Red Cell: The Fallacy of Perpetual US Primacy ,” Stimson Center, February 7, 2023. Matthew Burrows and Robert A. Manning, “ Is the US Getting Multilateralism Wrong? ” Stimson Center, April 11, 2023. Robert A. Manning, “ Is a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan the Most Likely Scenario?” Stimson Center, October 27, 2023. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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1 Arms, Influence, and the Military Industrial Complex 41:02
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedWilliam Hartung of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft explains the problem of retired military brass working for the arms industry and how this revolving door tends to militarize U.S. foreign policy. He also discusses China's military buildup and why it shouldn't automatically translate to bigger U.S. defense budgets. Other topics include the military industrial complex, Eisenhower's Farewell Address, the Pentagon's inability to pass an audit, and threat inflation, among others. Show Notes William Hartung and Dillon Fisher, " March of the Four-Stars: The Role of Retired Generals and Admirals in the Arms Industry , " Quincy Brief No. 47, October 4, 2023. William Hartung, " Reality Check: Chinese Military Spending in Context ," Costs of War Project at Brown University's Watson Institute, December 5, 2023. William Hartung, " Good Times for the Military Industrial Complex ," TomDispatch.com, November 12, 2023. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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1 The Middle East Is a Powder Keg. Washington Is Making It Worse 38:02
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedRenewed conflict in the Middle East increases the costs and risks of America's entanglement in the region, and despite the strategic case for retrenchment, there is no sign of a substantial change to U.S. foreign policy there. Jennifer Kavanagh of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discusses America's costly, security-first approach to the Middle East, the Biden administration's support for Israel, policy inertia and the reluctance to change posture, the risks of escalation, backlash, and overstretch, and why the use of force in U.S. foreign policy is increasingly ineffective. Show Notes Jennifer Kavanagh bio Jennifer Kavanagh and Frederic Wehrey, " Washington's Looming Middle Eastern Quagmire ," Foreign Affairs , November 24, 2023. Jennifer Kavanagh and Bryan Frederick, " Why Force Fails ," Foreign Affairs , March 30, 2023 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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1 The Economic War on China Is Self-Defeating 49:58
49:58 Play Later Play Later Lists Like Liked49:58
Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedWeaponizing global supply chains is self-defeating and alters supply chain networks in ways that accelerate, rather than slow China’s rise. University of Connecticut assistant professor Miles Evers discusses how business-state relationships affect international relations. He also describes how economic coercion drives away potential allies and business, which allows China to innovate and increase its share of global trade despite US sanctions. Show Notes Miles Evers bio Ling S. Chen and Miles M. Evers, “ ’Wars without Gun Smoke’: Global Supply Chains, Power Transitions, and Economic Statecraft ,” International Security 48, no. 2 (Fall 2023): pp. 164-204. Miles M. Evers, “ Discovering the Prize: Information, Lobbying, and the Origins of US–Saudi Security Relations ,” European Journal of International Relations 29, no. 1 (March 2023): pp. 104-128. Miles M. Evers, “ Just the Facts: Why Norms Remain Relevant in an Age of Practice ,” International Theory 12, no. 2 (2020): pp. 220-230. Geoffrey Gertz and Miles M. Evers, “ Geoeconomic Competition: Will State Capitalism Win? ” The Washington Quarterly 43, no. 2 (2020): pp. 117-136. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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Common but unsound conceptions of credibility and reputation in international politics have persistently promoted unnecessary militarism and prevented the United States from shedding even unnecessary security commitments abroad. Boston College assistant professor Joshua Byun explains the concepts of reputation and credibility in international politics and uses survey data to undermine the conventional wisdom that a reputation for resolve is necessary for a country’s credibility. He also discusses the implications of situational resolve and the US withdrawal from Afghanistan on allies’ opinions of US credibility. Show Notes Joshua Byun bio D.G. Kim, Joshua Byun, and Jiyoung Ko, “U.S. Alliance Credibility after the 2021 Afghanistan Withdrawal,” Contemporary Security Policy Blog, September 6, 2023. Joshua Byun and Do Young Lee, “The Case against Nuclear Sharing in East Asia,” The Washington Quarterly 44, no. 4 (Winter 2021): 67-87. D.G. Kim, Joshua Byun, and Jiyoung Ko, “Remember Kabul? Reputation, Strategic Contexts, and American Credibility after the Afghanistan Withdrawal,” Contemporary Security Policy (September 5, 2023). Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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Christopher Chivvis, director of the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, discusses the work of renowned realist thinker Reinhold Niebuhr. He explores Niebuhr’s views on war, politics, and American Exceptionalism, and argues that Niebuhr's restraint-oriented ideas are just what is needed in contemporary debates about U.S. foreign and national security policy, particularly with respect to the rivalry with China. Show Notes Christopher Chivvis bio Christopher S. Chivvis, “ The Humility of Restraint: Niebuhr’s Insights for a More Grounded Twenty-First-Century American Foreign Policy ,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace working paper, November 22, 2021. Christopher S. Chivvis, “ Some Politicians Seem Comfortable with the Idea of a New Cold War. They Shouldn’t .” The Guardian , February 22, 2023. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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1 Israel, Gaza, and America’s Broken Middle East Policy 46:50
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedJustin Logan, Cato’s director of defense and foreign policy studies, and Jon Hoffman, a foreign policy analyst at Cato, discuss the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas and the imperative of avoiding further U.S. entanglement in the Middle East. They talk about the deep problems with the Abraham Accords, Biden's misguided bid for a Saudi-Israeli normalization deal, how client states employ "reverse leverage" on their U.S. patron, whether Israel can avoid America's post-9/11 mistakes, and the prospects for a genuine change in U.S. policy towards this region, among other issues. Show Notes Justin Logan bio Jon Hoffman bio Jon Hoffman and Justin Logan, “ Time to Change Course in the Middle East ,” National Interest , October 21, 2023. Justin Logan, “ The Hamas-Israel War ,” Cato at Liberty, October 14, 2023. Jon Hoffman, “ Pariah or Partner? Reevaluating the U.S.-Saudi Relationship ,” Cato Institute policy analysis no. 961, September 20, 2023. Jon Hoffman, “ A Shaky Foundation ,” Cato Institute policy analysis no. 939, December 20, 2022. Justin Logan, “ The Case for Withdrawing from the Middle East ,” Defense Priorities, September 30, 2020. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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The U.S.'s frequent use of force abroad erodes the international order's most fundamental principles of sovereignty and non-intervention. Yale Law School professor Oona Hathaway discusses the erosion of domestic constraints on presidential war powers and the increasing official resort to untenable self-defense doctrines to justify its military actions under international law. She also explains why chipping away at the prohibition on the use of force undermines international order, among other topics. Show Notes Oona Hathaway bio Oona A. Hathaway, “ How the Expansion of ‘Self-Defense’ Has Undermined Constraints on the Use of Force ,” Just Security , September 18, 2023. Oona A. Hathaway and Scott J. Shapiro, The Internationalists: How a Radical Plan to Outlaw War Remade the World (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2017). Oona A. Hathaway et al., “ Yemen: Is the U.S. Breaking the Law? ” Harvard National Security Journal 10 (2019). Oona Hathaway, “ National Security Lawyering in the Post-War Era: Can Law Constrain Power? ” UCLA Law Review 68, rev. 2 (2021). Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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Rose McDermott, Professor of International Relations at Brown University, argues that dominant theories of nuclear brinkmanship lack a nuanced understanding of the crucial factor of human psychology. She discusses the psychology of political leaders, the rational actor model, Thomas Schelling's notion of "threats that leave something to chance," the psychology of revenge, the coercive utility of nuclear weapons, and why nuclear deterrence may not be as stable as many people think, among other topics. Show Notes Rose McDermott bio Reid B.C. Pauly and Rose McDermott, “ The Psychology of Nuclear Brinkmanship ,” International Security 47, no. 3 (2023): pp. 9-51. James W. Davis and Rose McDermott, “ The Past, Present, and Future of Behavioral IR ,” International Organization 75, no. 1 (2022): pp. 147-177. Rose McDermott, Anthony C. Lopez, and Peter K. Hatemi, “ ’Blunt Not the Heart, Enrage It’: The Psychology of Revenge and Deterrence ,” Texas National Security Review 1, no. 1 (November 2017): pp. 68-88. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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