Fed Chief: Housing Market Is Headed for a “Correction”

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The Federal Reserve followed through with its plan for another rate hike this week. Fed officials hiked short term rates by three-quarters of a percent. Fed Chief Jerome Powell also reiterated his determination to bring inflation levels back down to 2% with more rate hikes and warned that the housing market is headed for a “correction.”

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Powell said after the September policy meeting: “Our expectation has been we would begin to see inflation come down, largely because of supply side healing. We haven’t. We have seen some supply side healing but inflation has not really come down.” (1)

Fed Hikes Short-Term Rates

The Federal Open Market Committee raised the Federal Funds rate to a range of 3 to 3.25%. It’s the third consecutive .75% rate hike and brings the overnight lending rate to the highest it’s been since early 2008.

The central bank started raising rates in March from a level that was close to zero. Fed officials say they plan to continue to raise rates until they reach a “terminal rate” of 4.6%. That would be a range of 4.5% to 4.75%. They are expecting to raise the funds level another 1.25% this year with two rate hikes. That leaves one quarter point rate hike for next year.

Personal Consumption Index Goal

The FOMC is hoping that rate hikes will push the Personal Consumption Expenditure index or PCE down to 5.4% this year, and the core rate to 4.5%. They aren’t expecting to get inflation down to a target rate of 2.1% until 2025.

Powell says: “My main message has not changed since Jackson Hole. The FOMC is strongly resolved to bring inflation down to 2%, and we will keep at it until the job is done.” He believes that a recession is possible, but that no one knows for sure if this will take place, or how significant it will be. (1)

Shelter Costs A Big Part of Inflation

He did warn that the fight against inflation, which has made homeownership unaffordable for many Americans, will likely lead to a housing market correction. Shelter costs have been a key component of the recent inflation run-up. That includes both the purchasing of homes and paying rent.

Powell said that home prices have been rising at an unsustainably fast level, and that created a big imbalance between supply and demand. He said: “For the longer term what we need is supply and demand to get better aligned so housing prices go up at a reasonable level, at a reasonable pace, and people can afford houses again.” (2)

Shelter Inflation Will Be Slow to Fall

But he doesn’t expect that to happen quickly. He says: “I think that shelter inflation is going to remain high for some time. We’re looking for it to come down, but it’s not exactly clear when that will happen. It may take some time. Hope for the best, plan for the worst.” Which is why the central bank is now hiking rates aggressively.

As for the GDP, and a slower economy, Fed officials revised their GDP estimate for this year to just .2% and 1.8% for next year.

We'll be reporting on how this will further affect the housing market, and specifically which markets will feel it the most, in upcoming episodes.

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Thank you! And thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.

Links:

1 - https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/21/fed-rate-hike-september-2022-.html

2 - https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/21/real-time-updates-of-the-federal-reserves-big-rate-decision-and-powells-press-conference.html