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The DC Today - Thursday, April 11, 2024

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Manage episode 412028171 series 2524881
Content provided by The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group and The Bahnsen Group. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group and The Bahnsen Group or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://player.fm/legal.

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JfyXwQ

A modestly positive day in markets overall today on some better-than-expected PPI numbers following yesterday’s selloff on CPI. So what one-day taketh, another giveth back (well, not quite). The Producer Price Index numbers showed a gain of just .2% for the month on headline when .3% was expected, and the Core PPI only gained .1% for the month. The takeaway is PPI is just not confirming a reacceleration in inflation on the wholesale side, which is a positive.

We unpacked yesterday’s CPI numbers pretty well, I thought, but I am sharing this chart from our friends at Strategas with you below to show you where rate expectations have now moved since. My point here is that while they have moved meaningfully higher, I do believe this to be a good thing, contrary to what some may say. The economy, employment, and the markets have all digested these higher rate expectations and it’s simply far healthier for markets to focus and trade on the actual fundamentals of the economy and earnings versus solely on the hopes of looser monetary policy. Shown below, we came into the year expecting Fed funds at 3.5% by Christmas and have now priced in just two rate cuts and ending this year closer to 4.75%. The bar of Fed expectations has been reset to a level high enough that it is now more supportive for markets than the opposite at this point.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

  continue reading

883 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 412028171 series 2524881
Content provided by The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group and The Bahnsen Group. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group and The Bahnsen Group or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://player.fm/legal.

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JfyXwQ

A modestly positive day in markets overall today on some better-than-expected PPI numbers following yesterday’s selloff on CPI. So what one-day taketh, another giveth back (well, not quite). The Producer Price Index numbers showed a gain of just .2% for the month on headline when .3% was expected, and the Core PPI only gained .1% for the month. The takeaway is PPI is just not confirming a reacceleration in inflation on the wholesale side, which is a positive.

We unpacked yesterday’s CPI numbers pretty well, I thought, but I am sharing this chart from our friends at Strategas with you below to show you where rate expectations have now moved since. My point here is that while they have moved meaningfully higher, I do believe this to be a good thing, contrary to what some may say. The economy, employment, and the markets have all digested these higher rate expectations and it’s simply far healthier for markets to focus and trade on the actual fundamentals of the economy and earnings versus solely on the hopes of looser monetary policy. Shown below, we came into the year expecting Fed funds at 3.5% by Christmas and have now priced in just two rate cuts and ending this year closer to 4.75%. The bar of Fed expectations has been reset to a level high enough that it is now more supportive for markets than the opposite at this point.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

  continue reading

883 episodes

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