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Forecasting: How to Map the Future

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Manage episode 183450764 series 1301621
Content provided by BBC and BBC Radio. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by BBC and BBC Radio or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://player.fm/legal.

Why do so many economic and business forecasts fail to correctly map the future? Adam Shaw asks why so many recessions take us by surprise and why the failure of certain forecasts should be a cause of celebration, not despair. He examines the role of complexity and groupthink and how technological advance can scupper the best laid forecasts. Do we, as consumers, invest too much faith in forecasts? And is there anything forecasters can do to ensure their pronouncements are more reliable? Producer: Rosamund Jones (Image: Adam Shaw at a pool table. Credit: BBC)

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472 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 183450764 series 1301621
Content provided by BBC and BBC Radio. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by BBC and BBC Radio or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://player.fm/legal.

Why do so many economic and business forecasts fail to correctly map the future? Adam Shaw asks why so many recessions take us by surprise and why the failure of certain forecasts should be a cause of celebration, not despair. He examines the role of complexity and groupthink and how technological advance can scupper the best laid forecasts. Do we, as consumers, invest too much faith in forecasts? And is there anything forecasters can do to ensure their pronouncements are more reliable? Producer: Rosamund Jones (Image: Adam Shaw at a pool table. Credit: BBC)

  continue reading

472 episodes

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