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Forecasting: How to Map the Future
Manage episode 183450764 series 1301621
Why do so many economic and business forecasts fail to correctly map the future? Adam Shaw asks why so many recessions take us by surprise and why the failure of certain forecasts should be a cause of celebration, not despair. He examines the role of complexity and groupthink and how technological advance can scupper the best laid forecasts. Do we, as consumers, invest too much faith in forecasts? And is there anything forecasters can do to ensure their pronouncements are more reliable? Producer: Rosamund Jones (Image: Adam Shaw at a pool table. Credit: BBC)
472 episodes
Manage episode 183450764 series 1301621
Why do so many economic and business forecasts fail to correctly map the future? Adam Shaw asks why so many recessions take us by surprise and why the failure of certain forecasts should be a cause of celebration, not despair. He examines the role of complexity and groupthink and how technological advance can scupper the best laid forecasts. Do we, as consumers, invest too much faith in forecasts? And is there anything forecasters can do to ensure their pronouncements are more reliable? Producer: Rosamund Jones (Image: Adam Shaw at a pool table. Credit: BBC)
472 episodes
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