Q1 2023 | Putting the Quarter-in-Perspective | Part One: Market Performance

Unfiltered Finance

The sudden failure of Silicon Valley Bank in March jostled investors' confidence in the market. But, the overall performance of various tech stocks in Q1, such as Tesla, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Salesforce, AMD, and Broadcom, served to revive optimism for the stock market's near future. Join Casey Dylan, CIMA®, Consultant, and our host Tom Romano, Head of Strategic Relationships and Product Development, in this first half of of our Q1 recap, as we discuss both market, and factor performance, in the first few months of 2023.

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Transcript:

0 00:00:01.900 --> 00:00:07.400 Good afternoon,

1 00:00:07.400 --> 00:00:10.700 everyone. This is Tom Romano head of strategic relationships at

2 00:00:10.700 --> 00:00:14.200 symmetry partners and joined with me. Today is Casey Dillon

3 00:00:13.200 --> 00:00:16.900 a long time friend of symmetry and our

4 00:00:16.900 --> 00:00:19.500 internal communication strategist. Thank you Casey for

5 00:00:19.500 --> 00:00:22.400 joining us today. Tom is excellent to be here with you live in

6 00:00:22.400 --> 00:00:25.100 person. Yeah, fantastic. Fantastic So today, we're gonna go

7 00:00:25.100 --> 00:00:28.900 through our q1 2023 quarter in

8 00:00:28.900 --> 00:00:31.700 perspective. It's been quite the

9 00:00:31.700 --> 00:00:34.800 interesting quarter to say the least we've had

10 00:00:34.800 --> 00:00:37.800 some volatile markets. Although

11 00:00:37.800 --> 00:00:40.400 I'll be at some positive results. We've seen things

12 00:00:40.400 --> 00:00:43.300 like banking collapses in the headlines. There's still of

13 00:00:43.300 --> 00:00:46.600 course the concerns about inflation. And so

14 00:00:46.600 --> 00:00:49.800 Casey thank you for joining us to give us some perspective

15 00:00:49.800 --> 00:00:52.300 of what's going on in the market. So in a

16 00:00:52.300 --> 00:00:55.800 nutshell what happened in q1 of 2023, yeah

17 00:00:55.800 --> 00:00:58.300 in a nutshell, I'll be brief if I

18 00:00:58.300 --> 00:01:00.500 can so if you recall

19 00:01:01.800 --> 00:01:04.300 The fourth quarter of last year, right? The

20 00:01:04.300 --> 00:01:07.600 last year was a brutal year across a number of metrics, but

21 00:01:07.600 --> 00:01:10.500 the fourth quarter we started to see some respite

22 00:01:10.500 --> 00:01:13.300 from that and the first two months of the fourth quarter,

23 00:01:13.300 --> 00:01:16.600 right? We saw markets actually rebound pretty

24 00:01:16.600 --> 00:01:19.500 significantly in October and November and much of

25 00:01:19.500 --> 00:01:23.000 that was driven by the sense across

26 00:01:22.700 --> 00:01:25.900 the markets Market participants that maybe

27 00:01:25.900 --> 00:01:28.500 the Fed was done raising interest rates, maybe

28 00:01:28.500 --> 00:01:31.400 that the inflationary pressures that

29 00:01:31.400 --> 00:01:34.700 we had seen in the spring of 2022. We're

30 00:01:34.700 --> 00:01:37.400 starting to Abate and the market is

31 00:01:37.400 --> 00:01:40.800 a forward-looking forward pricing mechanism. And so

32 00:01:42.200 --> 00:01:45.200 In the fourth quarter, that's what it did. It looked forward.

33 00:01:45.200 --> 00:01:48.700 It started to anticipate a period when the the

34 00:01:48.700 --> 00:01:51.300 Fed was not raising interest rates and inflation would be tamed.

35 00:01:51.300 --> 00:01:55.100 And of course what happened in December was

36 00:01:54.100 --> 00:01:57.800 a bit of a comeuppance for

37 00:01:57.800 --> 00:02:00.400 those Market participants who got a little bit ahead of

38 00:02:00.400 --> 00:02:03.500 the fed and we saw a pullback in

39 00:02:03.500 --> 00:02:03.700 December.

40 00:02:04.400 --> 00:02:07.600 And markets responding to the fact that the FED said well, no,

41 00:02:07.600 --> 00:02:10.500 we're pretty set on continuing to raise rates.

42 00:02:10.500 --> 00:02:12.800 And and we think we're gonna keep them higher longer.

43 00:02:13.700 --> 00:02:16.500 As we rolled into the first quarter of this year. We saw

44 00:02:16.500 --> 00:02:19.900 a replay of a lot of those Dynamics coming into

45 00:02:19.900 --> 00:02:23.000 January Market participants

46 00:02:22.300 --> 00:02:24.000 again. It's sort of

47 00:02:25.400 --> 00:02:28.200 Determined that this was the year the Fed was

48 00:02:28.200 --> 00:02:31.100 going to stop rate and Market participants started to

49 00:02:31.100 --> 00:02:34.200 look forward and price as if the not only

50 00:02:34.200 --> 00:02:37.600 with the FED stop racing rates, but they would start to pull rates

51 00:02:37.600 --> 00:02:42.400 back by the end of the year given where people

52 00:02:41.400 --> 00:02:45.300 reading the tea leaves assumed the

53 00:02:45.300 --> 00:02:47.500 economy would be by mid-year.

54 00:02:48.200 --> 00:02:51.800 And so you saw a really robust Rebound in

55 00:02:51.800 --> 00:02:54.000 January for a lot of the names that have been

56 00:02:54.200 --> 00:02:57.900 really beat up in 2022 specifically the

57 00:02:57.900 --> 00:03:01.000 large cab growth and Tech names and

58 00:03:00.300 --> 00:03:03.200 so there was something of a reversion to

59 00:03:03.200 --> 00:03:06.300 the mean in terms of those names really

60 00:03:06.300 --> 00:03:09.500 leading the charge in January. Those are

61 00:03:09.500 --> 00:03:12.200 the names that were most beaten up in 2022. Those are the

62 00:03:12.200 --> 00:03:15.500 names that snap back fastest in the

63 00:03:15.500 --> 00:03:18.500 first quarter. And so January where we

64 00:03:18.500 --> 00:03:22.900 saw for instance the S&P down 20% for

65 00:03:22.900 --> 00:03:25.200 2022. We saw

66 00:03:25.200 --> 00:03:28.100 a Resurgence just in the month of January the SP was up

67 00:03:28.100 --> 00:03:31.400 like eight percent and the NASDAQ double that right just on the

68 00:03:31.400 --> 00:03:34.400 strength of kind of those large cap Tech names and of course what happened

69 00:03:34.400 --> 00:03:38.100 as we rolled into February the news that

70 00:03:37.100 --> 00:03:40.400 came out on the sort of

71 00:03:40.400 --> 00:03:43.400 economic underpinnings specifically job data for

72 00:03:43.400 --> 00:03:47.100 January really surprised Market

73 00:03:46.100 --> 00:03:48.100 participants because

74 00:03:48.200 --> 00:03:52.400 It was so robust. So strong it exceeded expectations. It

75 00:03:51.400 --> 00:03:54.800 served as a really Stark reminder that we're

76 00:03:54.800 --> 00:03:55.500 not out of the woods yet.

77 00:03:56.200 --> 00:03:59.500 And and it sent shock waves

78 00:03:59.500 --> 00:04:02.400 across the market in the sense that everyone who

79 00:04:02.400 --> 00:04:06.000 had said. Okay. Well now the FED is gonna have to wind this down all

80 00:04:05.200 --> 00:04:08.400 the sudden the the realized maybe not

81 00:04:08.400 --> 00:04:11.400 right not only is the fed maybe not gonna wind this

82 00:04:11.400 --> 00:04:14.700 down because the economy is hotter than we thought it was but we potentially

83 00:04:14.700 --> 00:04:17.600 risk sort of a flare-up of inflation

84 00:04:17.600 --> 00:04:20.100 just as it was coming down and the FED may have

85 00:04:20.100 --> 00:04:23.500 to get more aggressive in in tackling that and

86 00:04:23.500 --> 00:04:27.000 so February saw sort of a revisitation of

87 00:04:26.400 --> 00:04:29.500 those expectations that market participants

88 00:04:29.500 --> 00:04:33.100 had and as we rolled into March then all

89 00:04:32.100 --> 00:04:35.800 eyes were on the Senate

90 00:04:35.800 --> 00:04:38.700 hearings with the the chairman

91 00:04:38.700 --> 00:04:41.200 of the fed and based on his

92 00:04:41.200 --> 00:04:44.700 comments Futures skyrocketed for an expectation

93 00:04:44.700 --> 00:04:47.200 of a 50 basis point raise at

94 00:04:47.200 --> 00:04:50.500 the end of March the Futures went up to like a 70% chance that

95 00:04:50.500 --> 00:04:53.300 the Fed was gonna raise 50 basis points, and

96 00:04:53.300 --> 00:04:55.500 of course what happened then you know days later.

97 00:04:56.100 --> 00:05:00.000 Started imploding right and that sort

98 00:04:59.100 --> 00:05:03.000 of Royal financial markets and

99 00:05:02.500 --> 00:05:05.200 the FED did end up raising rates. But

100 00:05:05.200 --> 00:05:08.200 only by 25 basis points after they had worked to

101 00:05:08.200 --> 00:05:11.200 sort of rescue. I don't know rescues the

102 00:05:11.200 --> 00:05:15.500 right term but step in aggressively and calm markets

103 00:05:14.500 --> 00:05:17.200 particularly folks who

104 00:05:17.200 --> 00:05:20.600 had cash on deposited Banks to keep sort

105 00:05:20.600 --> 00:05:23.200 of a contagion effect and a larger Bank Run taking place.

106 00:05:23.200 --> 00:05:26.800 Right? So we end the first quarter with a really

107 00:05:26.800 --> 00:05:29.900 sort of wild trip of markets shooting

108 00:05:29.900 --> 00:05:32.500 up coming back down a lot of volatility a lot

109 00:05:32.500 --> 00:05:35.400 of fear injected in markets in March with the

110 00:05:35.400 --> 00:05:38.300 headlines and yet at the end of the quarter you finished up

111 00:05:38.300 --> 00:05:41.900 pretty again pretty solidly across

112 00:05:41.900 --> 00:05:45.000 us markets International Development markets emerging

113 00:05:44.400 --> 00:05:47.700 markets in fixed income inequities, right?

114 00:05:47.700 --> 00:05:50.400 We it was a it was a pretty decent first

115 00:05:50.400 --> 00:05:53.800 quarter from a return perspective despite all of that. Yeah sure.

116 00:05:53.800 --> 00:05:56.000 It was like it's a very interesting quarter.

117 00:05:56.100 --> 00:05:59.200 And I'd like the way you put it on the things the kind of the Resurgence of

118 00:05:59.200 --> 00:06:03.100 these tech companies that didn't have a great year last year, but you're

119 00:06:02.100 --> 00:06:05.500 seeing asset classes such as the energy

120 00:06:05.500 --> 00:06:08.600 sector right who had a great year last year is to

121 00:06:08.600 --> 00:06:11.300 use your your term of aversion to the mean right? They had

122 00:06:11.300 --> 00:06:14.500 a tough time in the first quarter, right? Yeah. Yeah and and frankly

123 00:06:14.500 --> 00:06:18.200 prices have been coming down in oil and gas pretty

124 00:06:17.200 --> 00:06:18.800 consistently.

125 00:06:19.200 --> 00:06:22.800 Since last fall so we did see a continuation of that. I

126 00:06:22.800 --> 00:06:27.300 do think and likely there's

127 00:06:26.300 --> 00:06:29.200 more conversation to be had

128 00:06:29.200 --> 00:06:32.900 around this but the concern that I have or

129 00:06:32.900 --> 00:06:35.500 or would have based on

130 00:06:35.500 --> 00:06:38.600 how markets performed in the first quarter is that

131 00:06:38.600 --> 00:06:41.900 it was so dominated by a

132 00:06:41.900 --> 00:06:44.100 handful of names, right? We we've seen

133 00:06:44.100 --> 00:06:47.300 this Dynamic before where we're

134 00:06:47.300 --> 00:06:51.000 sort of the top largest growth Tech

135 00:06:50.300 --> 00:06:53.800 names sort of dominate performance

136 00:06:53.800 --> 00:06:56.500 of the market and we and we saw that again in

137 00:06:56.500 --> 00:07:01.500 the first quarter right? You think about Facebook alphabet

138 00:07:00.500 --> 00:07:04.700 Apple Google Netflix, right?

139 00:07:03.700 --> 00:07:06.500 All of those firms were

140 00:07:06.500 --> 00:07:09.500 really been challenged in 2022 had a

141 00:07:09.500 --> 00:07:12.300 nice Resurgence across the first quarter, but when

142 00:07:12.300 --> 00:07:16.000 you dig deeper into the performance particularly here domestically what

143 00:07:15.200 --> 00:07:18.900 you see is they were the lion

144 00:07:19.100 --> 00:07:22.400 Care of that return that we saw the market it was once again

145 00:07:22.400 --> 00:07:27.100 the fact that these top handful of names represent twenty

146 00:07:25.100 --> 00:07:28.600 plus percent of the overall

147 00:07:28.600 --> 00:07:32.000 market, right? So think S&P 500 has got ostensibly 500

148 00:07:31.500 --> 00:07:34.700 names in it the top 10 names

149 00:07:34.700 --> 00:07:38.000 accounted for all at

150 00:07:37.100 --> 00:07:40.400 least 80% of that return right the

151 00:07:40.400 --> 00:07:43.300 top top five names half of it, right? So so

152 00:07:43.300 --> 00:07:46.400 again, you're getting a lot of that return concentrated in

153 00:07:46.400 --> 00:07:47.000 these names.

154 00:07:47.900 --> 00:07:51.600 Because they're so large disproportionately to

155 00:07:50.600 --> 00:07:55.200 the other names in those indices

156 00:07:54.200 --> 00:07:57.300 and it lit. It's the rising tide lifting

157 00:07:57.300 --> 00:08:00.200 all boats, but the concern that you

158 00:08:00.200 --> 00:08:03.100 have with that and we saw that in 2022 when the

159 00:08:03.100 --> 00:08:06.600 air goes out of the balloon to a degree. Well that

160 00:08:06.600 --> 00:08:09.500 can be a double-edged sword. Right if those names start

161 00:08:09.500 --> 00:08:13.000 to pull back in valuations, you

162 00:08:12.300 --> 00:08:15.400 could see that turn around and become an anchor pulling

163 00:08:15.400 --> 00:08:19.000 markets down, right and that can happen very quickly just based

164 00:08:18.100 --> 00:08:21.600 on the fact that it's so concentrated in a

165 00:08:21.600 --> 00:08:24.000 handful of names that are all sort of in the

166 00:08:24.300 --> 00:08:27.100 same kind of economic Waters right in terms of kind of

167 00:08:27.100 --> 00:08:30.600 this large growth Tech, you know richly valued.

168 00:08:30.600 --> 00:08:33.100 Yeah. It sounds a lot like me, you know, I've

169 00:08:33.100 --> 00:08:37.200 had these conversations over the years even going back before 2022

170 00:08:36.200 --> 00:08:39.700 coming out of the pandemic

171 00:08:39.700 --> 00:08:42.300 and those tech stocks. They were the story they were leading

172 00:08:42.300 --> 00:08:45.400 the charge and what I'm hearing you say, is that sort

173 00:08:45.400 --> 00:08:47.800 of the casing q1, but that double-ed

174 00:08:47.800 --> 00:08:50.700 word is just going back 2022 would

175 00:08:50.700 --> 00:08:53.700 be an example of if you're not well Diversified

176 00:08:53.700 --> 00:08:56.800 that could be a painful experience it can and I'm

177 00:08:56.800 --> 00:08:57.900 I'm reminded of

178 00:08:59.300 --> 00:09:02.400 The experience that we had coming out of the tech bubble,

179 00:09:02.400 --> 00:09:05.300 right? So if you think about if in fact

180 00:09:05.300 --> 00:09:08.300 the run-up invaluations in this sort of handful of

181 00:09:08.300 --> 00:09:11.400 techniques is analogous to what we saw in

182 00:09:11.400 --> 00:09:12.000 the late 90s.

183 00:09:14.200 --> 00:09:17.300 They were so richly valued that when the

184 00:09:17.300 --> 00:09:20.600 tech Bubble Burst it took a decade the Lost

185 00:09:20.600 --> 00:09:24.200 decade right of just you know, subpar returns

186 00:09:23.200 --> 00:09:26.300 for the valuations to get

187 00:09:26.300 --> 00:09:29.500 back to a place where markets could then start

188 00:09:29.500 --> 00:09:32.400 to take off again. And so the concern that

189 00:09:32.400 --> 00:09:36.200 that one might have is valuations are

190 00:09:35.200 --> 00:09:40.400 still Rich, right? Even after 2022 on

191 00:09:39.400 --> 00:09:43.200 a Price to Book basis very

192 00:09:42.200 --> 00:09:45.600 expensive on a price to

193 00:09:45.600 --> 00:09:50.500 forward earnings basis. It's expensive and

194 00:09:48.500 --> 00:09:51.600 so it's not

195 00:09:51.600 --> 00:09:54.600 as if these are our Bargains to

196 00:09:54.600 --> 00:09:57.800 be had in a Marketplace that that's discounting

197 00:09:57.800 --> 00:10:00.700 them. They are still incredibly expensive. And so

198 00:10:00.700 --> 00:10:03.400 anything that goes wrong right if the

199 00:10:03.400 --> 00:10:06.300 if in fact the economy runs into turbulence at

200 00:10:06.300 --> 00:10:09.700 some point or the expectations for growth, I mean,

201 00:10:09.700 --> 00:10:12.600 you know, we're in earning season and Netflix had sort

202 00:10:12.600 --> 00:10:14.100 of positive numbers, but

203 00:10:14.100 --> 00:10:17.700 They sort of gave lackluster guidance for next quarters

204 00:10:17.700 --> 00:10:20.400 growth. Right? So all you need is for for Market

205 00:10:20.400 --> 00:10:23.400 participants to to a once again sour on the

206 00:10:23.400 --> 00:10:27.400 prospects of these names and you're right back to it's

207 00:10:26.400 --> 00:10:29.300 too too rich like I'm paying

208 00:10:29.300 --> 00:10:32.500 too much today for for earnings in

209 00:10:32.500 --> 00:10:35.100 the future that may or may not materialize right? And so

210 00:10:35.100 --> 00:10:38.700 I've got to pay less and so the price has to come down. Yeah, right. And

211 00:10:38.700 --> 00:10:41.300 again, I'm not suggesting that we have a lost decade

212 00:10:41.300 --> 00:10:44.200 in front of us, but this potentially room to run

213 00:10:44.200 --> 00:10:48.300 if markets turn and I think that's the the concern that

214 00:10:47.300 --> 00:10:50.100 I would share with investors. That's what I

215 00:10:50.100 --> 00:10:53.500 prepare them for. Hey, we'll take what we get. Right? We're happy

216 00:10:53.500 --> 00:10:54.700 to get those returns, but

217 00:10:56.200 --> 00:10:59.500 This could still be valve this this, you know, we're in the third inning potentially

218 00:10:59.500 --> 00:11:02.900 look or fourth ending. There's a lot of game left and we're

219 00:11:02.900 --> 00:11:05.000 just gonna buckle up and be ready for it. Yeah, and what is

220 00:11:05.300 --> 00:11:09.200 interesting what this quarter and you detect upon that I'd love to get your thoughts developed International

221 00:11:08.200 --> 00:11:11.300 to having a very good quarter.

222 00:11:11.300 --> 00:11:14.400 I mean when we saw these large Tech

223 00:11:14.400 --> 00:11:17.600 names and in the past when they had their run prior to 2022, it

224 00:11:17.600 --> 00:11:20.600 was a pretty much us dominated run up.

225 00:11:21.800 --> 00:11:24.500 Give us some commentary on what we're saying in the developed International

226 00:11:24.500 --> 00:11:27.100 Space. Yeah, I think some of

227 00:11:27.100 --> 00:11:31.600 it is the Resurgence of the

228 00:11:32.900 --> 00:11:35.700 strength of the sort

229 00:11:35.700 --> 00:11:38.200 of the the companies that are there that have

230 00:11:38.200 --> 00:11:42.000 sort of suffered through a decade of kind of sub-par performance

231 00:11:41.300 --> 00:11:45.400 and they were in a much stronger financial

232 00:11:44.400 --> 00:11:47.300 position. Then they

233 00:11:47.300 --> 00:11:51.300 were for instance going into the global financial crisis, right and they

234 00:11:50.300 --> 00:11:53.700 weren't super expensive. Right?

235 00:11:53.700 --> 00:11:58.100 So from a perspective of they were kind of relatively cheaply

236 00:11:56.100 --> 00:11:59.100 priced compared to

237 00:11:59.100 --> 00:12:02.500 US stocks. And so if we look at just the performance

238 00:12:02.500 --> 00:12:06.100 the they don't have to have that much right

239 00:12:05.100 --> 00:12:09.300 surprise upside.

240 00:12:10.300 --> 00:12:14.300 To have nice performance right across the board or

241 00:12:13.300 --> 00:12:16.200 relatively decent performs.

242 00:12:16.700 --> 00:12:19.800 So I think people were pleasantly surprised by

243 00:12:19.800 --> 00:12:23.500 some of the financial resilience in

244 00:12:22.500 --> 00:12:25.200 Europe particularly coming out of

245 00:12:25.200 --> 00:12:28.900 the effects of the the Russian Ukraine

246 00:12:28.900 --> 00:12:31.600 conflict and looking at the impact that

247 00:12:31.600 --> 00:12:34.500 for instance the the price of gas price

248 00:12:34.500 --> 00:12:37.100 of oil I had in places like Germany and the fact

249 00:12:37.100 --> 00:12:40.300 that they sort of got through that not unscathed but

250 00:12:40.300 --> 00:12:43.700 you know, the the avoided the apocalypse

251 00:12:43.700 --> 00:12:47.000 right the gasoline apocalypse over the course of the

252 00:12:46.600 --> 00:12:49.300 winter right that it was relatively mild. So

253 00:12:49.300 --> 00:12:52.600 I think that from that perspective markets sort

254 00:12:52.600 --> 00:12:55.600 of said rewarded International developed

255 00:12:55.600 --> 00:12:58.900 businesses with valuations that

256 00:12:58.900 --> 00:13:01.400 seemed a little more reasonable than the

257 00:13:01.400 --> 00:13:04.000 valuations in the US. Yeah, that makes a lot of sense and thank you

258 00:13:04.200 --> 00:13:07.900 for that. Yeah, and and I would call I would suggest that

259 00:13:07.900 --> 00:13:10.200 Emerging Markets are in a similar but

260 00:13:10.200 --> 00:13:14.300 different position right again a little more financially

261 00:13:13.300 --> 00:13:16.300 robust in terms of the underpinnings.

262 00:13:17.300 --> 00:13:20.100 Of those companies relative to where we've seen Cycles where people

263 00:13:20.100 --> 00:13:23.100 are risk off and and sort of beating down

264 00:13:23.100 --> 00:13:26.200 in price. I think anytime you have a lot of volatility people are

265 00:13:26.200 --> 00:13:29.700 hesitant to take a bunch of risk. So Emerging Markets

266 00:13:29.700 --> 00:13:32.800 could be a little more volatile as you would expect but

267 00:13:32.800 --> 00:13:35.100 I think from evaluation standpoint there's room to run

268 00:13:35.100 --> 00:13:38.600 as well over time relative to the US let's let's

269 00:13:38.600 --> 00:13:41.300 look at the other side of the coin and talk a

270 00:13:41.300 --> 00:13:44.500 little bit about bonds because that's been quite the Hot Topic lately. We've been

271 00:13:44.500 --> 00:13:47.900 getting a lot of inquiries from advisors and investors alike

272 00:13:47.900 --> 00:13:50.700 about the fixed income market. So give us

273 00:13:50.700 --> 00:13:52.300 a little perspective of what's happening in.

274 00:13:53.500 --> 00:13:57.300 Global fixed income right? Well, if you recall 2022

275 00:13:56.300 --> 00:13:59.500 was a historically bad year

276 00:13:59.500 --> 00:14:02.900 for Boston certainly, right as as fed as

277 00:14:02.900 --> 00:14:05.500 the FED raised interest rates are not just the FED but central banks

278 00:14:05.500 --> 00:14:08.500 essentially around the world except for the Asian

279 00:14:08.500 --> 00:14:11.100 China and Japan those central banks not quite

280 00:14:11.100 --> 00:14:14.600 as much but globally central banks at the

281 00:14:14.600 --> 00:14:17.600 impact of course of challenging the yield right

282 00:14:17.600 --> 00:14:20.900 and as we know yield in price or are sort of inverse Lee

283 00:14:20.900 --> 00:14:23.300 related and so as yield was pushed up by raising

284 00:14:23.300 --> 00:14:26.900 rates price came down and and it had a pretty dramatic

285 00:14:26.900 --> 00:14:29.900 impact across the yield curve

286 00:14:29.900 --> 00:14:32.400 and that was globally as well the United

287 00:14:32.400 --> 00:14:32.400 States.

288 00:14:33.200 --> 00:14:36.400 2022 pretty much a very bad. No good year for

289 00:14:36.400 --> 00:14:39.400 Bond holders rolling into the first quarter

290 00:14:39.400 --> 00:14:42.400 a lot of those same sort of macro dynamics that

291 00:14:42.400 --> 00:14:45.400 we talked about with equities was

292 00:14:45.400 --> 00:14:48.500 true to fix income as well the expectation the bond

293 00:14:48.500 --> 00:14:51.800 market pricing that they think the FED will essentially

294 00:14:51.800 --> 00:14:54.600 be done at some point this year raising rates

295 00:14:54.600 --> 00:14:58.100 had the impact of markets rallying

296 00:14:57.100 --> 00:15:01.300 to a degree and then of course when there

297 00:15:00.300 --> 00:15:04.100 was volatility injected because of banking issues

298 00:15:03.100 --> 00:15:07.300 you continued to see a pullback

299 00:15:06.300 --> 00:15:09.700 on the the yield

300 00:15:09.700 --> 00:15:13.000 right? So at at some points we saw for instance

301 00:15:12.200 --> 00:15:15.400 the the 10 year get up over four and we

302 00:15:15.400 --> 00:15:18.500 saw a pullback as yields come down then of course prices go

303 00:15:18.500 --> 00:15:21.400 up. And so you saw a nice robust kind of response over

304 00:15:21.400 --> 00:15:24.500 the first quarter of prices coming up for bonds that had

305 00:15:24.500 --> 00:15:27.500 the impact and that was true for treasuries and corporates

306 00:15:27.500 --> 00:15:30.400 and international bonds, right? So across the

307 00:15:30.400 --> 00:15:32.900 Spectrum you had sort of a nice performance.

308 00:15:33.300 --> 00:15:37.100 For bonds for the first quarter. And again, it's unusual

309 00:15:36.100 --> 00:15:39.400 for fixed income and Equity to look and

310 00:15:39.400 --> 00:15:42.100 behave very similarly. That was one of

311 00:15:42.100 --> 00:15:45.700 the things that was so unusual about 2022, but there's still

312 00:15:45.700 --> 00:15:48.500 sort of Behaving the same way based on the same Outlook

313 00:15:48.500 --> 00:15:51.500 that at some point interest rates stop going up

314 00:15:51.500 --> 00:15:54.500 or stop getting ratcheted up by central banks.

315 00:15:54.500 --> 00:15:57.100 And so that Dynamic is is kind of

316 00:15:57.100 --> 00:16:00.700 floating all the boats to this degree and so

317 00:16:00.700 --> 00:16:03.500 fixed income has had a robust first quarter.

318 00:16:04.400 --> 00:16:07.700 Remains to be seen how the rest of the year plays

319 00:16:07.700 --> 00:16:10.400 out and and you know, frankly we

320 00:16:10.400 --> 00:16:13.200 continued to see the a deep

321 00:16:13.200 --> 00:16:16.200 inversion in the yield curve, especially at the

322 00:16:16.200 --> 00:16:19.100 very shortest end of the O curve relative to the

323 00:16:19.100 --> 00:16:22.700 10 year. And as you know that has historically sort

324 00:16:22.700 --> 00:16:25.300 of been a warning sign of

325 00:16:25.300 --> 00:16:28.600 potential economic stress recessions right

326 00:16:28.600 --> 00:16:32.100 as an indicator and it has remained it

327 00:16:31.100 --> 00:16:34.100 inverted for some time now

328 00:16:34.100 --> 00:16:37.900 and that inversion has only gotten deeper on the shortest end. So,

329 00:16:37.900 --> 00:16:40.200 you know again you would want to continue

330 00:16:40.200 --> 00:16:43.700 to watch that and be cognizant of it. I think the takeaway

331 00:16:43.700 --> 00:16:46.500 from this is much like with equities. It's best

332 00:16:46.500 --> 00:16:49.200 to be sort of broad based Diversified. You never

333 00:16:49.200 --> 00:16:53.000 know what part of the Yoke curve is gonna move relative to this and

334 00:16:52.900 --> 00:16:56.800 it's good to have exposure

335 00:16:55.800 --> 00:16:58.600 not just us treasuries, but

336 00:16:58.600 --> 00:17:01.200 the corporates and not just us bonds, but the international

337 00:17:01.200 --> 00:17:04.300 bonds that there are benefits built into the pricing of all

338 00:17:04.900 --> 00:17:08.400 And as we start to see a decoupling of Central

339 00:17:07.400 --> 00:17:10.400 Bank activity, yes, they've been

340 00:17:10.400 --> 00:17:13.700 acting pretty much in concert, but at some point central banks

341 00:17:13.700 --> 00:17:16.800 start to peel off right and they get back to focusing on

342 00:17:16.800 --> 00:17:19.100 the handling kind of

343 00:17:19.100 --> 00:17:22.300 their domestic concerns. And as they do that it will

344 00:17:22.300 --> 00:17:25.600 have varying diversification impacts for bonds

345 00:17:25.600 --> 00:17:28.500 around the globe the way stocks and bonds behaves

346 00:17:28.500 --> 00:17:31.300 in 2022 with similar and then into this quarter. We're

347 00:17:31.300 --> 00:17:34.500 seeing some decent returns globally across those two

348 00:17:34.500 --> 00:17:37.800 macro asset classes. We're seeing

349 00:17:37.800 --> 00:17:40.300 some of a mixed bag that last Factor investors

350 00:17:40.300 --> 00:17:43.400 from a factor perspective, right? But let's

351 00:17:43.400 --> 00:17:46.200 shift a little bit and talk about factors for a moment.

352 00:17:46.200 --> 00:17:49.300 We're a factor investors are listeners The Avengers that

353 00:17:49.300 --> 00:17:52.300 we work with our have clients invested in

354 00:17:52.300 --> 00:17:55.500 these Factor portfolios. What did we see from a factor standpoint

355 00:17:55.500 --> 00:17:58.800 in the first quarter of 2023 if

356 00:17:58.800 --> 00:18:01.400 you think about the factor of value, it's just the the

357 00:18:01.400 --> 00:18:04.300 cheaper stocks outperform the more expensive stocks over time and as

358 00:18:04.300 --> 00:18:04.500 you know,

359 00:18:04.800 --> 00:18:07.800 We had a long run where that wasn't true. Right we're

360 00:18:07.800 --> 00:18:10.300 growth stocks were just outperforming value to the

361 00:18:10.300 --> 00:18:13.200 point that everybody was sort of Naval gazing wondering his value

362 00:18:13.200 --> 00:18:16.800 dead. Does this even make sense anymore? And and what

363 00:18:16.800 --> 00:18:19.400 we sort of looking at it determined was

364 00:18:19.400 --> 00:18:22.400 no actually values kind of in line with what it's always done. It's

365 00:18:22.400 --> 00:18:25.300 growth. That's so unusual. Yeah, right and that we're

366 00:18:25.300 --> 00:18:28.300 back to the story about the large tech stocks and get over evaluation. Right?

367 00:18:28.300 --> 00:18:31.900 And so last year was a great year for Value, right? Even

368 00:18:31.900 --> 00:18:34.500 though it was down right value outperform growth

369 00:18:34.500 --> 00:18:37.800 by a good 20% Oh, yeah, absolutely and it

370 00:18:37.800 --> 00:18:40.700 was sort of that Snapback to recognition of

371 00:18:40.700 --> 00:18:43.300 hey one of my paying for right and and these things

372 00:18:43.300 --> 00:18:46.200 have gotten incredibly overvalued on the

373 00:18:46.200 --> 00:18:46.600 growth side.

374 00:18:47.300 --> 00:18:50.500 And so it shouldn't come as a surprise then if there's a reversal of

375 00:18:50.500 --> 00:18:53.600 that Dynamic that value might underperform growth

376 00:18:53.600 --> 00:18:56.500 over the first quarter. And of course, that's what we observed right

377 00:18:56.500 --> 00:18:59.300 that value underperformed growth. It was

378 00:18:59.300 --> 00:19:02.300 those large kind of growthy names that took off and and so that

379 00:19:02.300 --> 00:19:05.700 that factor shows up and demonstrates

380 00:19:05.700 --> 00:19:08.300 that thighs right. So again kind of

381 00:19:08.300 --> 00:19:11.600 the academic research that smaller cap

382 00:19:11.600 --> 00:19:14.400 names tend to outperform larger cab

383 00:19:14.400 --> 00:19:17.800 names over time rolling into the first quarter large

384 00:19:17.800 --> 00:19:20.500 caps outperform small caps, right again being led

385 00:19:20.500 --> 00:19:23.500 by that large growthy and so small caps

386 00:19:23.500 --> 00:19:26.800 tended to underperform in general. What's interesting

387 00:19:26.800 --> 00:19:29.300 is across factor is

388 00:19:29.300 --> 00:19:32.300 one of the reasons you want to hold small caps isn't necessarily the size

389 00:19:32.300 --> 00:19:35.300 Factor premium associated with that because

390 00:19:35.300 --> 00:19:38.700 that's come under some scrutiny of

391 00:19:38.700 --> 00:19:41.400 Lee as academics kind of look at that. Say what

392 00:19:41.400 --> 00:19:42.200 do we actually getting here?

393 00:19:42.900 --> 00:19:46.000 But what really expresses itself

394 00:19:45.300 --> 00:19:48.500 in small camp names or all the other factors, right? So

395 00:19:48.500 --> 00:19:51.100 the reason you'd want to hold a small cap is not just

396 00:19:51.100 --> 00:19:54.200 because you get a benefit versus large caps, but because you get

397 00:19:54.200 --> 00:19:57.600 a really strong value signal a really strong momentum really

398 00:19:57.600 --> 00:20:00.200 strong quality, right all of these things. And so if we

399 00:20:00.200 --> 00:20:03.300 look at small caps the performance of small caps for

400 00:20:03.300 --> 00:20:06.700 the first quarter, you actually got to really strong quality signal

401 00:20:06.700 --> 00:20:09.700 in small caps. So again a reason

402 00:20:09.700 --> 00:20:12.400 why you want to have a multiple exposures for your

403 00:20:12.400 --> 00:20:15.400 factors not just pick any one of these right so small

404 00:20:15.400 --> 00:20:18.400 caps under form large caps, but quality did really well inside

405 00:20:18.400 --> 00:20:21.300 small camps that makes up the next category is

406 00:20:21.300 --> 00:20:24.400 momentum. And what's interesting about markets that are sort of

407 00:20:24.400 --> 00:20:27.500 whipsawing one way or the other that momentum tends to

408 00:20:27.500 --> 00:20:30.400 have a tougher time in markets where the signal is really

409 00:20:30.400 --> 00:20:33.100 hard to pick up where there's a lot of whipsawing effect up and down on the

410 00:20:33.100 --> 00:20:37.000 other way momentum tends to kind of get whipped around with that.

411 00:20:37.700 --> 00:20:40.200 Eventually when markets start to pick

412 00:20:40.200 --> 00:20:43.300 up Trend whether that's down for a significant period of

413 00:20:43.300 --> 00:20:46.500 time like in 2022 momentum does well or up right

414 00:20:46.500 --> 00:20:50.000 for a significant period of time and so you

415 00:20:49.200 --> 00:20:52.400 would expect momentum to kind

416 00:20:52.400 --> 00:20:55.400 of settle down as markets kind of settle down

417 00:20:55.400 --> 00:20:59.600 and we see less whipsawing and more directionality. However, and

418 00:20:59.600 --> 00:21:03.300 I mentioned it earlier with small caps quality this idea

419 00:21:02.300 --> 00:21:05.000 that there may be

420 00:21:05.200 --> 00:21:08.800 a flight to Quality in times when the

421 00:21:08.800 --> 00:21:11.100 there's a lot of volatility. Well one of the

422 00:21:11.100 --> 00:21:14.800 reasons you see that is because higher quality earnings tend to

423 00:21:14.800 --> 00:21:17.400 hold up better in downturns. They have a premium

424 00:21:17.400 --> 00:21:21.300 associated with them and we saw that very clearly quality

425 00:21:20.300 --> 00:21:23.200 was one of the areas that outperformed the market

426 00:21:23.200 --> 00:21:26.200 over the first quarter and that was true not just in the

427 00:21:26.200 --> 00:21:30.200 US but internationally as well interestingly in

428 00:21:29.200 --> 00:21:33.500 Emerging Markets value quality

429 00:21:32.500 --> 00:21:35.600 and low volatility did quite

430 00:21:35.600 --> 00:21:37.600 well so value was still doing well in emerging.

431 00:21:37.700 --> 00:21:40.700 Markets again a reason why you'd want to diversify

432 00:21:40.700 --> 00:21:43.400 your Factor exposures not just in the US but

433 00:21:43.400 --> 00:21:46.900 internationally as well and minimum volatility was

434 00:21:46.900 --> 00:21:49.800 a contributor in us but lagged Market

435 00:21:49.800 --> 00:21:52.500 beta on the whole a broadly

436 00:21:52.500 --> 00:21:55.900 Diversified Factor exposure was I'd

437 00:21:55.900 --> 00:21:58.700 say depending on what your tilts are helpful on

438 00:21:58.700 --> 00:22:02.200 the downside when Market was volatile, but lagged

439 00:22:01.200 --> 00:22:04.900 Market beta to a degree for the

440 00:22:04.900 --> 00:22:07.500 first quarter where it outperformed in

441 00:22:07.500 --> 00:22:10.400 2022. So again factors are a

442 00:22:10.400 --> 00:22:13.500 long term investment. You wouldn't do it on based

443 00:22:13.500 --> 00:22:16.700 on one quarter, but we we watch the horse race, right? Yeah.

444 00:22:16.700 --> 00:22:19.200 Absolutely and I think a point that you

445 00:22:19.200 --> 00:22:22.400 you said that really resonated with me is the notion of how these factors work

446 00:22:22.400 --> 00:22:25.800 together right size and quality you mentioned

447 00:22:25.800 --> 00:22:29.200 and so having a diverse portfolio

448 00:22:28.200 --> 00:22:30.700 of integrated factors.

449 00:22:31.500 --> 00:22:32.800 maintaining that for the long term

450 00:22:34.200 --> 00:22:37.400 Should reward you over the long term. Yeah, and that's the

451 00:22:37.400 --> 00:22:40.800 expectation. There are lots of factors out

452 00:22:40.800 --> 00:22:43.800 there that have been identified in the academic literature when you

453 00:22:43.800 --> 00:22:46.400 selectively go out and pick a handful of

454 00:22:46.400 --> 00:22:49.500 those factors. The expectation is every single

455 00:22:49.500 --> 00:22:52.500 one of those is going to be a positive contributor to

456 00:22:52.500 --> 00:22:55.400 your portfolio over time, right you you

457 00:22:55.400 --> 00:22:58.300 wouldn't necessarily pick one that you thought. Well, it's gonna be a loser but we're gonna hold on

458 00:22:58.300 --> 00:23:01.100 to it, right you're picking all of these different factors of the

459 00:23:01.100 --> 00:23:04.700 expectation that each one of those is going to be a

460 00:23:04.700 --> 00:23:07.300 positive contributor over a period of time when you

461 00:23:07.300 --> 00:23:10.400 weave them together you sort of iron out

462 00:23:10.400 --> 00:23:13.400 the highs and lows of any one particular factor and

463 00:23:13.400 --> 00:23:17.100 you get that very nice steady stream of

464 00:23:16.100 --> 00:23:19.500 return into your

465 00:23:19.500 --> 00:23:22.300 portfolio. That's generated by those Factor exposures. Yeah.

466 00:23:22.300 --> 00:23:25.400 It's the old the old adage we're going for singles and doubles

467 00:23:25.400 --> 00:23:28.200 not home runs, right? Yeah. Yeah exactly. So let's

468 00:23:28.200 --> 00:23:31.200 talk a little bit about factors and fixed income and then

469 00:23:31.200 --> 00:23:34.100 we can take a look at some of the the factors overseas.

470 00:23:34.100 --> 00:23:37.800 As well, but I do want to spend some time on some of

471 00:23:37.800 --> 00:23:40.100 the headlines. So why don't we

472 00:23:40.100 --> 00:23:44.000 talk a little bit about us fixed income factors? Sure. So

473 00:23:43.600 --> 00:23:46.200 as you know, right fat factors are

474 00:23:46.200 --> 00:23:49.800 not an equity only thing. In fact, we see factors across

475 00:23:49.800 --> 00:23:53.600 all different kinds of assets fixed income Commodities

476 00:23:52.600 --> 00:23:55.400 housing real

477 00:23:55.400 --> 00:23:58.400 estate, right all these I the concept of value for

478 00:23:58.400 --> 00:24:01.500 instance and the concept of momentum right anything that has a price associated

479 00:24:01.500 --> 00:24:04.400 with it stores can demonstrate these sort of

480 00:24:04.400 --> 00:24:07.200 factors. And that's true. In fact fixed income the way we

481 00:24:07.200 --> 00:24:10.400 think about factors and fixed incomes specifically is is kind

482 00:24:10.400 --> 00:24:13.400 of interest rate risk, which is time, right? So think

483 00:24:13.400 --> 00:24:17.300 about what we talked about with the yield curve inversion

484 00:24:16.300 --> 00:24:19.400 and what was going on on the short end versus the

485 00:24:19.400 --> 00:24:23.500 long end what we've observed in the

486 00:24:23.500 --> 00:24:26.200 past. Let's call year was a really

487 00:24:26.200 --> 00:24:29.800 strong interest rate risk lack

488 00:24:29.800 --> 00:24:32.600 of benefit that you got for sort of being paid

489 00:24:32.600 --> 00:24:34.000 over time, right?

490 00:24:34.100 --> 00:24:38.300 And in theory, right you should get paid to hold

491 00:24:37.300 --> 00:24:41.100 over time because there's less certainty

492 00:24:40.100 --> 00:24:43.500 about what the future holds so you demand a

493 00:24:43.500 --> 00:24:46.800 premium to hold something over time to lend over time. And

494 00:24:46.800 --> 00:24:49.200 so when you have the short end

495 00:24:49.200 --> 00:24:52.500 of the curve come up that tends to impact that interest

496 00:24:52.500 --> 00:24:55.500 rate sets that risk that sensitivity because you're

497 00:24:55.500 --> 00:24:58.800 not getting paid over time. You're getting paid actually on the

498 00:24:58.800 --> 00:25:01.700 the shorter end potentially. So when you

499 00:25:01.700 --> 00:25:04.800 see a pullback of rates,

500 00:25:04.800 --> 00:25:07.700 right and price is going up you're seeing

501 00:25:07.700 --> 00:25:10.800 that benefit playing out through the first quarter as well credit risk

502 00:25:10.800 --> 00:25:13.300 is just the difference the buildup over

503 00:25:13.300 --> 00:25:16.300 the risk free rate treasuries to account

504 00:25:16.300 --> 00:25:19.200 for hey, you know a corporation has more risk than a government

505 00:25:19.200 --> 00:25:22.500 and I should be paid that difference. And so you're investing

506 00:25:22.500 --> 00:25:25.200 up and down the various yield curves that

507 00:25:25.200 --> 00:25:28.900 build up on that and in this case credit risk really as

508 00:25:28.900 --> 00:25:31.900 a factor wasn't a very solid contributor

509 00:25:31.900 --> 00:25:33.200 for the first quarter slightly positive.

510 00:25:34.100 --> 00:25:37.200 The the show really has been frankly for the

511 00:25:37.200 --> 00:25:40.500 past 18 months were interest rate risk is in

512 00:25:40.500 --> 00:25:43.500 terms of factor Premia in your portfolios.

513 00:25:43.500 --> 00:25:46.500 And then Market is is again just Market

514 00:25:46.500 --> 00:25:49.800 beta which is a buildup of all these different factors expressing themselves.

515 00:25:49.800 --> 00:25:53.200 So on the whole positive Bond performance

516 00:25:52.200 --> 00:25:55.500 being driven by changes to

517 00:25:55.500 --> 00:25:59.500 the the yield curve in many cases and some

518 00:25:58.500 --> 00:26:01.400 expectation that Bond markets are looking ahead

519 00:26:01.400 --> 00:26:04.600 and pricing for a cessation of rate raises

520 00:26:04.600 --> 00:26:07.500 by central banks. So so my expectation would

521 00:26:07.500 --> 00:26:10.200 be for for fixed income investors again much like

522 00:26:10.200 --> 00:26:13.400 Equity potentially more volatility here, right? The

523 00:26:13.400 --> 00:26:16.400 the rodeo is not over the big bull riding

524 00:26:16.400 --> 00:26:18.200 could yet be to come so

525 00:26:19.200 --> 00:26:22.400 You know stay patient the the benefit here is

526 00:26:22.400 --> 00:26:25.400 there's return associated with fixed income

527 00:26:25.400 --> 00:26:29.500 to a degree. We haven't seen in 15 years. And so

528 00:26:29.500 --> 00:26:32.700 let this play out. And again, these Factor

529 00:26:32.700 --> 00:26:35.600 exposures are the expectation is over time. These are

530 00:26:35.600 --> 00:26:38.100 going to be a additive to the returns that you

531 00:26:38.100 --> 00:26:40.700 get from the bond market you had mentioned this in some of your previous comments.

532 00:26:42.500 --> 00:26:45.400 Factors perform differently geographically too

533 00:26:45.400 --> 00:26:48.500 right like value in the US might give you a different return

534 00:26:48.500 --> 00:26:51.300 versus value and the international develop during the

535 00:26:51.300 --> 00:26:54.500 Emerging Markets Arenas. So I think there's diversification story

536 00:26:54.500 --> 00:26:57.600 there. Can you comment on that, please? Yeah. Well, yes, of

537 00:26:57.600 --> 00:27:00.100 course and and I sort of made a comment

538 00:27:00.100 --> 00:27:01.300 about as

539 00:27:02.300 --> 00:27:05.500 central banks become decoupled and start to operate a

540 00:27:05.500 --> 00:27:09.000 little more independently that it has an impact on the

541 00:27:11.300 --> 00:27:14.600 local economies in all of these different markets as

542 00:27:14.600 --> 00:27:17.200 an impact on their currencies. And so

543 00:27:17.200 --> 00:27:20.600 when you think about fixed income the benefit that you get from

544 00:27:20.600 --> 00:27:23.300 not only where you hold on

545 00:27:23.300 --> 00:27:26.500 the curve and and the amount of credit that you're willing but that

546 00:27:26.500 --> 00:27:29.900 you're going to diversify the various curves

547 00:27:29.900 --> 00:27:32.300 that you hold and the where you

548 00:27:32.300 --> 00:27:35.900 are on that across geographies and

549 00:27:35.900 --> 00:27:38.200 then take into account the impact that

550 00:27:38.200 --> 00:27:42.200 currencies might have right and so we know for equities

551 00:27:41.200 --> 00:27:45.100 the the volatility signature

552 00:27:44.100 --> 00:27:47.100 of equity is is so robust that

553 00:27:47.100 --> 00:27:50.600 you're you tend to be willing to hold the volatility of

554 00:27:50.600 --> 00:27:53.900 fluctuations and currency in in

555 00:27:53.900 --> 00:27:56.000 fixed income. It tends not to pay you to do

556 00:27:56.200 --> 00:27:59.400 that. And so I know for instance

557 00:27:59.400 --> 00:28:03.100 that here at Cemetery you folks hedge back

558 00:28:03.100 --> 00:28:07.000 to the dollar sure and that takes some of that volatility out,

559 00:28:06.600 --> 00:28:09.400 right? And again, I think that's a benefit

560 00:28:09.400 --> 00:28:11.000 for Factor investors because what you're

561 00:28:11.200 --> 00:28:14.300 Is less volatility associated with fluctuations currency and

562 00:28:14.300 --> 00:28:18.000 you're getting maybe stronger signal from these these

563 00:28:17.200 --> 00:28:20.900 different sources of return across

564 00:28:20.900 --> 00:28:23.400 different markets and they're all going to be hitting at

565 00:28:23.400 --> 00:28:26.700 different times. Once the sort of the global economy

566 00:28:26.700 --> 00:28:29.200 comes unpegged to what's going

567 00:28:29.200 --> 00:28:33.100 on fighting inflation. Yeah until I think it's a perfect diversification story

568 00:28:32.100 --> 00:28:33.300 and

569 00:28:34.100 --> 00:28:37.600 we have a saying here that the only free lunch and investing is diversification. And

570 00:28:37.600 --> 00:28:40.900 so we tout that investor should be embracing that Casey.

571 00:28:40.900 --> 00:28:43.400 Thank you so much for joining us that concludes part one.

572 00:28:43.400 --> 00:28:46.600 Please feel free to access other podcasts

573 00:28:46.600 --> 00:28:49.000 that we have done and they can be

574 00:28:49.400 --> 00:28:52.600 accessed anywhere you get your podcast. So please join Casey and

575 00:28:52.600 --> 00:28:56.000 I for part two and our next series symmetry Partners

576 00:28:55.700 --> 00:28:58.800 LLC is an investment advisor firm

577 00:28:58.800 --> 00:29:01.700 registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission The

578 00:29:01.700 --> 00:29:04.600 Firm only transacts business in states where it

579 00:29:04.600 --> 00:29:07.500 is properly registered or excluded or

580 00:29:07.500 --> 00:29:11.200 Exempted from registration requirements registration of

581 00:29:10.200 --> 00:29:13.600 an investment advisor does not imply any

582 00:29:13.600 --> 00:29:16.400 specific level of skill or training and does

583 00:29:16.400 --> 00:29:19.100 not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the

584 00:29:19.100 --> 00:29:22.300 commission. No one should assume that future performance of any

585 00:29:22.300 --> 00:29:26.300 specific investment investment strategy product or

586 00:29:25.300 --> 00:29:28.300 non-investment related content made

587 00:29:28.300 --> 00:29:31.800 reference to directly or indirectly in this material will be

588 00:29:31.800 --> 00:29:32.400 profitable.

589 00:29:33.400 --> 00:29:36.500 As with any investment strategy there is the possibility of

590 00:29:36.500 --> 00:29:39.500 profitability as well as loss due

591 00:29:39.500 --> 00:29:42.300 to various factors including changing market

592 00:29:42.300 --> 00:29:44.700 conditions and/or applicable laws.

593 00:29:45.300 --> 00:29:48.900 The content may not be reflective of current opinions or

594 00:29:48.900 --> 00:29:51.600 positions. Please note the material

595 00:29:51.600 --> 00:29:54.300 is provided for educational and background use only

596 00:29:54.300 --> 00:29:58.000 moreover. You should not assume that any discussion or information

597 00:29:57.800 --> 00:30:00.800 contained in this material Services the

598 00:30:00.800 --> 00:30:04.400 receipt of or as a substitute for personalized

599 00:30:03.400 --> 00:30:05.700 investment advice.