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Bubble Trouble: Laying Out Inconvenient Truths About How Business and Financial Markets Really Work
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Bubble Trouble features conversations between economist and author Will Page and independent analyst Richard Kramer that lay out some inconvenient truths about how financial markets really work. Like the “boy who cried wolf,” financial markets have a peculiar tendency to repeat past mistakes and get themselves into “bubble trouble.” They party hard, drink too much of the Kool Aid, and wake up with a pounding hangover...only to do the same thing the next day. With tech dominating daily headlines and teenage traders driving stocks to unprecedented valuations, you might be asking “What’s really going on?” “What am I missing?” Imagine having a set of tour guides to tell you the “story behind the story” of the world’s largest tech companies, and how they bend - or break - the rules of economics.
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Bubble Trouble features conversations between economist and author Will Page and independent analyst Richard Kramer that lay out some inconvenient truths about how financial markets really work. Like the “boy who cried wolf,” financial markets have a peculiar tendency to repeat past mistakes and get themselves into “bubble trouble.” They party hard, drink too much of the Kool Aid, and wake up with a pounding hangover...only to do the same thing the next day. With tech dominating daily headlines and teenage traders driving stocks to unprecedented valuations, you might be asking “What’s really going on?” “What am I missing?” Imagine having a set of tour guides to tell you the “story behind the story” of the world’s largest tech companies, and how they bend - or break - the rules of economics.
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After 138 episodes and almost four years to the day since we recorded our first one, Will and Richard have decided to take a short break. We do plan to continue Bubble Trouble, and we are not short of bubbles that are causing trouble, but we want to take time to recharge and reflect on how we can make the show better than ever. We hope you’ll look back through the archives as there are so many episodes that are every bit as relevant today as they were in 2021 when we started. We’ll have word soon on when you can expect new episodes, but thanks so much for listening. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
1 An X-Rated Account of Twitter with Kurt Wagner 47:29
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedWho doesn’t like to talk about Twitter and Tweets? Word of mouth (or tweet) is the secret sauce of its success. But has it ever been successful? And if it hasn’t, how do you gauge the impact of Elon Musk’s shock therapy over the past two years? Journalist Kurt Wagner joins to share his deep dive profile of the tortured history of Twitter. [Repeat from May, 2024] For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) This episode of Bubble Trouble features a conversation with Bloomberg journalist Kurt Wagner, author of 'Battle for the Bird,' a book about Twitter's tumultuous history and evolution, particularly under Elon Musk's ownership. The hosts, independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist Will Page, delve into Twitter’s origins, its struggle to monetize effectively compared to giants like Meta, and the significant influence of Jack Dorsey’s leadership style on the platform's direction. They discuss the platform's missed opportunities, such as Vine and Periscope, and how it became a place where 'good ideas go to die.' The discussion also covers Musk's takeover, his attempts to transform Twitter into 'X', and the challenges of balancing free speech with the need for content moderation and advertiser appeal. Wagner shares insights on the potential future of 'X', the impact of Musk's leadership on the platform's advertising and user engagement, and the skepticism surrounding the 'everything app' concept Musk envisions. 00:00 Introduction 01:02 Part One 01:02 Deep Dive with Kurt Wagner: The Story of Twitter 02:36 The Origins and Evolution of Twitter 06:20 Twitter's User Base and Business Model Explored 09:10 The Challenges of Twitter's Business Model 14:10 Board Dynamics and Google's Influence on Twitter 18:03 Extravagant Spending and Corporate Culture at Twitter 21:13 Reflections on Twitter's Stock Performance 23:47 The Almost Disney-Twitter Deal: A Glimpse into Corporate Negotiations 24:29 Twitter's Quest for a Savior and Its Struggle for Independence 25:53 Missed Opportunities: The Story of Vine and Periscope 27:27 Part Two 27:27 Transition to Part Two: The Elon Musk Era at Twitter 27:49 The Challenges of Rebranding Twitter to X and Musk's Controversial Leadership 28:32 The Impact of Elon Musk's Actions on Twitter's Ad Revenue and Brand Safety 36:52 The Struggle with Bots and Spam: Has It Gotten Worse? 40:06 Free Speech Under Musk: A Double-Edged Sword 44:26 The Everything App Ambition: A Skeptical View 46:33 Closing Thoughts and Acknowledgements 47:01 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
This week let’s settle back to our sofas, grab our remote controls and work out what to watch with Doug Shapiro, among the most prominent voices in the world of television and its tech disrupters. His clear and concise work, all available to watch and read on his website is the go to for thousands. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts delve into the intricacies of media disruption with Doug Shapiro, a prominent voice in TV, economics, and tech. Celebrating over a century of their show's success, they explore topics such as the supply and demand curve changes, the potential of AI in content creation, and the future of media companies amidst technological advancements. Shapiro offers insights into the tectonic shifts affecting the industry, from the rise of new media over traditional formats to the economic implications of infinite content in a world of fixed demand. The discussion also touches on intellectual property, the ethics surrounding AI, and the challenges faced by incumbents in adapting to rapid innovation. 00:00 Introduction 00:42 Part One 00:49 Guest Introduction: Doug Shapiro 01:12 Doug Shapiro's Career Journey 02:12 The Evolution of Media Consumption 03:50 Supply and Demand in Media 07:19 Generative AI and Content Creation 10:32 The Future of Media Distribution 23:09 The Creator Economy and Power Laws 27:13 Part Two 27:30 Hollywood vs. Big Tech 30:00 AI's Impact on Hollywood: A Double-Edged Sword 30:44 Disruption in the Entertainment Industry 31:23 The Future of High-End Content 32:06 AI as a Productivity Tool in Hollywood 32:46 The Rise of AI-Enabled Studios 33:43 Introducing Sora: The Future of Content Creation 35:14 The Turing Test in Video Content 38:22 Local Content vs. Global Tent Poles 40:21 The Copyright Conundrum 41:56 The Dirty Deal: Media and Tech Collusion 48:06 The Fair Use Debate 50:59 Disruption is Hard: Lessons from Netflix 54:22 Concluding Thoughts and Future Outlook 55:42 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page return with guest Dror Poleg, an expert in real estate and economic history. They discuss the volatility expected in 2025, reflections on the work-from-home trend, and the dynamic interplay between geopolitics and everyday life. With insights into real estate bubbles, economic predictions, and the evolving nature of productivity, Dror offers a deep dive into how technological advancements shape our physical and economic world. The conversation also covers topics such as the challenges in the housing market, defense spending, AI investment, and the impact of geopolitical shifts. This episode is packed with thought-provoking discussions and forecasts for the near future. 00:00 00:00 Introduction 00:52 Part One 01:00 Guest Introduction 03:34 Real Estate Market Insights 06:15 Challenges in Urban Development 11:46 Rethinking Productivity and Inequality 19:38 Future of Work and Education 24:06 The Flaw of GDP and Productivity 24:23 Discussing the Book: Mismatch Between Economy and World 26:31 Part Two 26:49 Encouraging Success and Taxing It 28:47 Innovation and Public Investment Funds 33:33 US Government and Defense Spending 43:28 AI and the Future of Compute 46:48 Closing Thoughts and Upcoming Book 49:54 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
1 All Your Eggs in One Big Tech Basket [Repeat] 42:19
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedThis week we get into portfolio theory, or lack of, as for many the rush to big tech and wilful ignorance of everything else Wall Street has to offer seems to be the rule as opposed to the exception. Why is that, and is it sustainable? [Repeat from February, 2024] For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) The Magnificent Seven: Unpacking the Impact of Big US Tech Stocks In this episode, Richard Kramer and Will Page, analysts specializing in financial markets, discuss the 'Magnificent Seven', a term referring to the big US tech companies and their significant market impact. Kramer eloquently illustrates the concentration of wealth within these tech giants and their extensive media coverage, which contributes to their continual growth. They discuss the concept of long tail distributions and how it correlates with a constraint in attention leading to invested interest in just a few companies. They scrutinize the implications of concentrated wealth and potential future industry shifts, emphasizing the need for cautious investment strategies, despite the allure of being swept up in booming tech sectors. 00:01 Introduction 00:48 Part One 00:48 The Role of Big US Tech in Portfolio Theory 03:30 The Magnificent Seven: Who Are They? 07:28 The Long Tail Effect in Financial Markets 22:56 The Investment Thesis: Backing Big Tech 23:13 Part Two 23:25 The Geographic Disparity in Big Tech 38:09 Smoke Signals: Indicators of Market Shifts 41:41 Conclusion: The Future of Big Tech Investments 41:54 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
We have had over 30 episodes of Bubble Trouble this year, and had some real highlights along with a mad world we are living in. And now after a predictions show with Benedict Evans last week, we move on to our own look back to highlight the must-listen shows of 2024 and turn to the top troubles with bubbles to watch out for in 2025. Will’s favorite shows of 2024: Law Without Lawyers: A Conversation with Damien Riehl The Meltdown of Credit Suisse w/ Duncan Mavin You Can't Lead If You Don't Know Where You're Going Richards favorite shows of 2024: AI Supremacy and Ethical Dilemmas: A Conversation with Parmy Olson Kill the Chicken to Scare The Monkey with guest Linda Yueh The Meltdown of Credit Suisse w/ Duncan Mavin Fiscal Drag Queen Thames Water gets Whacked with guest Feargal Sharkey Will’s folder of research reports: HERE For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) Bubble Trouble Year-End Review: Top Episodes and Predictions for 2025 00:00 Introduction and Year in Review 00:33 Part One 00:41 Predictions and Highlights of 2024 01:16 Memorable Moments and Listener Feedback 02:44 Bronze Medal: Bill Raduchel’s Insight 04:58 Silver Medal: Duncan Maven and Credit Suisse 07:43 Gold Medal: Law Without Lawyers 11:09 Richard's Oscar Categories 13:48 Social Impact: Fergal Sharky on Water Management 17:36 Market Bubbles and Fiscal Policies 22:13 Closing Thoughts and Part Two Teaser 22:38 Part Two 22:59 Predictions and Skepticism 23:32 AI and the Rationalization of Apps 24:47 Winners and Losers in the AI Era 25:57 The Future of Review Platforms 28:28 Emerging Companies to Watch 35:13 Market Trends and Volatility 40:36 The Crisis in Journalism 44:40 AI Hype vs. Reality 45:57 Closing Thoughts and Reflections 47:14 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Back by popular demand, returning guest Benedict Evans to help us work out where we’ll be a year from now. This is our first predictions show, and Benedict has been brave enough to lead from the front with his latest presentation AI Eats the World . Will it? And if it does, what sort of indigestion will it bring? We double down on what the next twelve months will bring given the avalanche of “events-dear-boy-events” we’ve witnessed in the last twelve. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) Join hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page in one of the final episodes of 2024 as they team up with independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist and author Will Page, alongside returning guest Benedict Evans. In this prediction-packed episode, the trio dives into the year-long buzz around AI. They dissect the concept of 'AI Eats the World' — exploring if AI truly has the transformative power it's touted to have and what potential pitfalls could arise. From decoding AI trends to the proliferation of machine learning across industries, this episode provides a candid discussion on the future of AI, its impacts, and the upcoming challenges. Plus, they explore legal implications, the role of consultancy giants like Accenture in the AI wave, and the future landscape of professions impacted by AI innovations. Don't miss this insightful deep dive into what technology and AI advancements might hold for the year ahead. 00:00 Introduction and Show Setup 00:46 Part One 01:19 Understanding AI and Machine Learning 03:46 AI's Practical Applications 07:06 AI in the Legal Profession 15:58 Jevons Paradox and AI's Future Impact 21:01 Part Two 25:01 Creative Brainstorming with AI 25:11 The Value of Unique Perspectives 25:53 Skepticism Towards Big Consultancies 26:55 Accenture's Role in AI 28:33 Generative AI in Business 31:37 The Democratization of AI 34:02 AI's Impact on Various Industries 41:19 Future of AI in Media and Entertainment 45:51 Closing Thoughts and Reflections 46:38 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
When markets get fooled, stocks get …well, WHACKED, to quote a famous Kramerism. Our audience deserves to know more about volatility - for all the PhDs, MBAs and CFAs working on Wall Street, for all the compliance rules and regulations, why is it that a stock can go from hero to zero so quickly? Why is stability in itself destabilizing? [Repeat from May, 2024] For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) Understanding Market Volatility: The Seven Deadly Sins That Get Stocks Whacked In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosted by independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist Will Page, the duo delves into the intricacies of stock market volatility and the factors that lead to significant drops in stock values, often referred to as getting 'whacked.' They explore why financial markets remain volatile despite compliance rules and thorough analysis by Wall Street's experts. Using recent examples like Duolingo and Double Verify, they highlight how sentiment, market expectations, and artificial intelligence fears influence stock performance. They introduce the concept of the seven deadly sins—ranging from expectations management to fake it till you make it—that companies and analysts commit, causing stocks to tank. The discussion covers essential themes like the role of credibility, influence of peer performance, external market factors, and the impact of fear and greed. They also touch on larger market dynamics, such as the dominance of tech giants and the influence of algorithmic trading. The episode is both an educational dive into market mechanics and a cautionary tale for investors, emphasizing the importance of understanding broader market sentiments and the potential pitfalls of speculative trading. 00:00 Introduction 01:18 Part One 02:30 Recent Examples of Stocks Getting Whacked 06:08 The Role of Expectations in Market Behavior 10:53 Credibility and Its Impact on Stocks 16:17 The Influence of Peer Groups and Market Share 18:19 Mathematical Models and Black Swans 23:09 Part Two 24:15 The Sheer Size of Companies and Market Impact 25:13 Big Companies and Revenue Growth Challenges 26:33 Market Dynamics and Money Managers 27:04 Thought Experiment: Market Crowding 28:53 Taxing Market Capitalization 34:18 Fear and Greed in Financial Markets 40:11 Unprofitable IPOs and Market Distortions 42:47 Seven Deadly Sins of Stock Trading 46:22 Conclusion and Final Thoughts 46:53 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
In the last couple episodes, we've looked at the property market, we've looked at the demise of Credit Suisse, but now we're gonna go one-on-one with Will Page, talking about his latest work: How much is copyright worth and the way in which music is having its own, getting back at cinema. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com In this episode of Bubble Trouble, Richard Kramer and economist Will Page dive into the fascinating world of music copyright. They explore the market value, currently pegged at $45.5 billion, and discuss what this number entails, including the roles of record labels, collecting societies, and publishers. They delve deep into the growing significance of vinyl records, the influence of streaming services, and the striking impact of globalization on music trade flows. Additionally, they discuss new market opportunities, the potential for further growth, and the future of direct artist-to-fan engagements. Join the conversation to understand the changing dynamics of the music industry and the economic forces shaping it. 00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble 00:35 Part One 01:10 Exploring the Value of Copyright 02:23 The Economics of Music Copyright 07:12 Streaming vs. Cinema: A Shift in Consumption 17:08 The Vinyl Revival 19:31 Part Two 19:31 Global Impact of Music Copyright 22:32 The Global Impact of Reggaeton 22:47 Economic Disparities in Music Streaming 23:25 The Big Mac Index and Media Trade 24:50 K-Pop's Global Dominance 26:20 The Role of Government in Music Industry Success 28:36 Canada's Multicultural Music Scene 30:06 The Rise of Punjabi-Canadian Artists 33:12 The Future of Music Copyright and Streaming 37:41 Direct Artist-to-Fan Relationships 40:50 Emerging Markets and the Future of Copyright 41:51 Conclusion and Future Episodes Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
1 Learning From A Doer: A Conversation with Roger Madelin 53:16
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedToday we are going deep with a real creator. No, not one of the avatars of AI influencers in the creator economy, but someone who builds things that take 20 years to complete, Roger Madelin, CBE, the name behind the scenes in making London's Kings Cross a reality. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) Transformation and Challenges with King's Cross Visionary Roger Madeline In this episode of Bubble Trouble, co-hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into urban development with Roger Madelin, CBE. Known for his transformative work at London's King's Cross, Roger shares insights on large-scale urban projects, navigating economic cycles, and the intricacies of aligning diverse stakeholders' interests. The discussion also covers the controversial HS2 rail project, the importance of integrating cultural elements in city planning, and the current political landscape influencing housing policies. Roger emphasizes the need for a strong vision, the significance of public spaces, and the necessity of balancing private and public sector efforts to create vibrant, inclusive urban environments. 00:00 Introduction 00:48 Part One 02:16 Transforming King's Cross 03:56 Reflecting on Urban Development 05:48 The Impact of Smartening Up Train Stations 08:45 Navigating Economic Cycles in Urban Projects 15:20 The Future of Workspaces Post-COVID 20:09 Balancing Luxury and Community in Property Development 24:48 Preview of Part Two: HS2 and Urban Planning Challenges 25:34 Part Two 26:50 Challenges of High-Speed Rail in the UK 29:43 The Flaws in High-Speed Two's Business Case 32:08 Comparing High-Speed One and High-Speed Two 34:00 The Importance of Comfort Over Speed 36:03 The Role of Arts and Culture in City Development 42:09 Political and Economic Challenges in Urban Development 52:24 Closing Remarks and Reflections 53:17 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
1 The Meltdown of Credit Suisse w/ Duncan Mavin 47:03
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedOn Bubble Trouble, we are never short of subject matter: from the metaverse, NFTs and Chinese real estate, to Silicon Valley Bank and er… that small issue of a former global powerhouse Credit Suisse. Remember them? Well our guest, Duncan Mavin, knows their story better than anyone, and he’s documented them in the wonderfully titled Meltdown: Scandal, Sleaze and the Collapse of Credit Suisse. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) Credit Suisse: A Rolling Crisis in Banking Scandals In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Will Page and Richard Kramer discuss the collapse of Credit Suisse with journalist and author Duncan Maven. They delve into Maven's book 'Meltdown: Scandal, Sleaze, and the Collapse of Credit Suisse,' exploring the myriad of crises that plagued the bank. They touch on scandals ranging from rogue traders and sanctions busting to laundering Nazi gold and funding corrupt projects in Mozambique. The conversation also highlights the rapid acquisition of Credit Suisse by UBS over a tense and decisive weekend. Duncan Maven provides insights into the bank’s culture, the broader implications for the banking sector, and why people should care about the ethics in banking. The episode concludes with the discussion of warning signs (or smoke signals) that indicate deeper issues within financial institutions. 00:00 Introduction 01:00 Part One 01:09 Guest Introduction: Duncan Maven 02:31 The Rise and Fall of Credit Suisse 03:32 The Impact of White Collar Crime 05:08 Cultural Issues at Credit Suisse 09:56 Historical Context of Swiss Banking 15:21 The Mozambique Scandal 19:49 The Role of Social Media in Credit Suisse's Collapse 23:00 The Bulgarian Mafia and Credit Suisse Scandal 23:47 Part Two 23:54 The Collapse of Credit Suisse 24:32 UBS Absorbs Credit Suisse 26:41 The Aftermath and Lingering Scandals 28:57 The Swiss Financial Crisis 32:58 The Future of Swiss Banking 40:05 Reception of the Book 42:08 Smoke Signals and Final Thoughts 46:37 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
This week, we’re talking taxes. Don’t switch off, don’t fall asleep and please don’t hire an accountant as the next 45 minutes will defy the laws of gravity and make taxes sexy. Or make saxes testy… [Repeat from March, 2024.] Mentioned in today’s show: Barbarians at the Gate: https://youtu.be/Z3HiONtjZSM?si=xZ64zb46sYIfSs5Z For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) In this engaging episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page explore the complex world of taxes with humor and depth. They discuss the UK's tax system, the incentives it creates, and its contribution to economic inequalities. The duo delves into the problems of the tax code, including issues surrounding tax avoidance by the wealthy, lack of public sector productivity improvements, and the inefficiencies within the HMRC. Kramer and Page critique the approach of privatizing public utilities and the potential problems with private equity in the public sector. They also touch on broader issues like the lack of investment in tax authority systems and propose using tax policies for positive changes, like encouraging the shift from petrol to electric cars in Denmark. Through their insightful conversation, Kramer and Page aim to demystify taxes and highlight their significant impact on society. 00:00 Introduction 00:46 Part One 00:51 The UK's Budget Week and Tax System Insights 01:48 Tax Evasion vs. Public Sector Productivity 02:46 The Inequality of Tax Codes: A Global Issue 04:03 Tax System Flaws and Their Impact on Society 07:22 VAT: The Taxpayer as Tax Collector 11:31 The Complexity of National Insurance 13:43 Simplifying Tax Systems: A Call for Transparency 16:28 Private Equity and Tax Systems: A New Challenge 22:39 Decoding the Fiscal Drag Queen 23:00 The Political Divide on Taxation 23:21 Economic Lecture: Tax Burden and Growth 25:07 The Impact of Fiscal Drag on Tax Bands 26:15 The Surprising Windfall from Fiscal Drag 27:22 Part Two 27:45 Exploring the World of Private Equity 28:51 The Tax Loopholes Fueling Private Equity 32:24 The Potential Bubble in Public Utilities 36:26 The Disconnect Between Tax Policy and Reality 43:58 A Positive Tax Example from Denmark 47:28 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
1 Sonic Shifts: How Tech and Culture are Changing the Music Industry with Mark Mulligan 52:15
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Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedThis week we welcome Mark Mulligan of MIDiA Research who has had a ringside seat for years and years of bubbles, be it the creator economy, NFTs or AI music, or just everyone claiming they are gaining market share at the same time. He is the founder and driving force behind the tiny little company that an entire industry looks to as the source of truth. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page are joined by Mark Mulligan, a leading music industry analyst and founder of MIDiA Research. They delve into the intricate world of the music industry, discussing the evolution from digital streaming to the rise of new phenomena such as NFTs and AI in music. The trio explores the concept of bifurcation in markets and the distinction between high-end experiences versus bargain deals within the industry. The conversation also touches on the significant cultural shifts, the role of trade associations, and the future of personalized music experiences. Despite the optimism around technology, the hosts remain critical of mainstream narratives, emphasizing the importance of genuine innovation and realistic market assessments. This insightful and provocative discussion is a must-listen for anyone interested in the intersection of music, technology, and finance. 00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble 01:02 Welcoming Special Guest Mark Mulligan 01:26 Mark Mulligan's Background and Insights 02:34 The Evolution of Music Supply 04:20 The Democratization of Music Creation 06:13 AI and the Future of Music 12:16 Fragmentation and Hyper-Targeting in Media 13:40 The Role of Superstars and Long Tail Creators 19:20 Streaming Platforms: Carnivores vs. Herbivores 25:45 TikTok's Influence on the Music Industry 27:33 Part Two 28:38 Diving into the Music Industry's Hype 30:08 Constructive Criticism in Emerging Technologies 30:39 The Metaverse and NFTs: A Skeptical View 31:28 Frameworks for Assessing New Technologies 33:10 The Future of Digital Fandom 35:15 Bifurcation in the Market 43:07 Pendulum Swings in Technology Adoption 44:54 Lessons from the Aviation Industry 46:29 Final Thoughts and Predictions 52:00 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
1 New Media Overtaking Old Media with Lauren Jarvis 48:54
48:54 Play Later Play Later Lists Like Liked48:54
Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedPodcasts are having another moment: Trump on Joe Rogan, Kamala on Call Her Daddy. New media is overtaking old media in audience and influence. Back in early 2023, we welcomed guest Lauren Jarvis, who helped bring Rogan to Spotify and growing podcasts into the medium we see today. Given this week’s election mania, we bring Lauren back to make sense of it all. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) The Podcast Boom: Analyzing Influence and the Future of Media In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the evolving landscape of the podcast industry with guest Lauren Jarvis. They discuss the resurgence of podcasts as a significant media platform, touching on notable examples like Joe Rogan's recent Trump interview. The conversation also covers the economic potential of podcasts, their role in reaching new audiences, and the gamification of learning as a growing trend in tech. Jarvis shares insights on the integration of technology into daily life and the future of media consumption. 00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble 00:59 Part One 02:52 Political Influence of Podcasts 05:26 Audience Engagement and Monetization 09:09 The Future of Media Consumption 22:11 Part Two 22:13 Tech Trends and Predictions 37:46 AI and Data Utilization 46:12 Closing Thoughts and Farewell 48:33 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
Repeat from November, 2023. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page engage in an in-depth discussion with Alex Kantrowitz, veteran tech journalist and founder of Big Technology. The discussion provides insights on some of the issues and dilemmas facing Twitter (now called X) under the leadership of Elon Musk. Kantrowitz offers valuable perspectives on the changing dynamics in the tech world, touching on the rise of Reddit, problems with 'Threads', and the impact of new leadership on Twitter's performance and brand value. The conversation also delves into the principle of 'Effective Altruism' prevalent in Silicon Valley and what it signifies about tech leadership. Analysis of recent data reveals Twitter's shrinking user base and engagement, though it remains a highly popular app. The episode wraps with Kantrowitz sharing about his newsletter 'Big Technology', and its recent features. 00:00 Introduction and Welcome 00:46 Part One 00:52 Interview with Tech Journalist Alex Kantrowicz 02:17 Exploring Twitter's History and Business Model 06:52 Twitter's Influence and Impact on Journalism 07:32 The Decline of Traditional Media and the Rise of Digital Platforms 08:45 Twitter's Role in the Attention Economy 09:54 Twitter's Popularity and Influence Despite Declining Numbers 15:06 Analyzing Twitter's User Data and Trends 28:47 Part Two 32:37 The Future of Twitter: Cyclical or Structural Decline? 36:26 Twitter's Competition: Reddit and Threads 36:34 The Struggles of Threads 36:59 The Power of Network Effects 38:17 The Limitations of Threads 39:48 The Rise of Reddit 40:04 The Role of Reddit in the Social Media Landscape 40:54 The Impact of Pocket App on Twitter 41:25 The Irrelevance of Threads and the Power of Meta 44:20 The Challenges Twitter Faces 45:50 Potential Strategies to Save Twitter 49:32 The Future of Twitter Under Musk's Leadership 54:51 The Role of Effective Altruism in Tech Companies 58:57 The Danger of Singular Solutions 59:27 The Value of Comments and the Future of Twitter 01:01:38 Closing Remarks and Promotion of Big Technology 01:02:34 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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Bubble Trouble: Laying Out Inconvenient Truths About How Business and Financial Markets Really Work
The past week has seen US stocks–and gold, btw–rally to record highs. This week, we’re going to apply the magnifying glass to the ‘Magnificent Seven’ that are driving this rally and ask what happens when the sheer size of these US corporations, or corporate value, starts to overtake individual European stock markets. That’s right - any one of these US companies are worth more than British or German capitalism. With an election on the horizon, time to figure out what this all means. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) Bubble Trouble: Giants of Global Markets and Economic Quandaries In this episode of Bubble Trouble, Richard Kramer and Will Page explore the dominance of the 'Magnificent Seven' US corporations in the recent stock market rally and their comparison to European markets. They discuss the significant influence of American tech CEOs versus their European counterparts, global lobbying efforts by big tech, and the economic impact of major tech product launches like Apple's iPhone 16 on UK retail sales. The episode analyzes the UK's economic challenges, governmental budget constraints, and tax policy trade-offs, including the freezing of tax thresholds. The hosts delve into the broader societal and economic consequences of media monopolies, infrastructure investments, and the peculiarities of contemporary political landscapes. 00:00 00:00 Introduction 00:55 Part One 01:00 Feedback and OpenAI Discussion 02:41 The Magnificent Seven: US Companies vs. European Markets 04:29 Comparing Market Values 07:26 Future Projections and Power Dynamics 12:50 European Response and Regulatory Challenges 15:49 Investment Strategies and Market Resilience 18:21 Retail Sales and Apple's Influence 19:30 Part Two 19:30 UK's Economic Challenges and Government Budget 22:19 Tax Policies and Fiscal Strategies 30:18 The Impact of Media and Big Tech 35:29 Concluding Thoughts and Audience Engagement 36:49 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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Bubble Trouble: Laying Out Inconvenient Truths About How Business and Financial Markets Really Work
1 BT 128 Labour’s 100 Days: No Bubbles, Some Troubles 33:43
33:43 Play Later Play Later Lists Like Liked33:43
Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedWe thought we’d get a little political on this week’s show. Are we serving up a bubble that was a landslide UK election, or is the new government trouble a bubble? And we want to deconstruct Will’s Pessimism Paradox as it applies to the place we most often seen bubbles, in high finance where the less certain the outcomes to higher the markets go. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) Deconstructing Economic Pessimism in the Wake of a New Government In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page discuss the political and economic landscape in the UK following the first 100 days of a new government. They analyze the concept of political and economic bubbles, questioning whether pessimism dominates current narratives. The discussion spans issues like the impact of the cloud on GDP measurement, tax policies, and the importance of attracting talent over traditional economic metrics. The hosts also delve into the role of economists’ outlooks during different economic conditions. The episode underscores the significance of focusing on new strategies and the long-term impact of political decisions, highlighting the government and economic system's current challenges. 00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble 00:44 Part One 00:50 Analyzing the New Government's First 100 Days 03:56 The Pessimism Paradox Explained 14:13 Debating Economic Growth and GDP 18:59 Part Two 19:19 Tax Policies and Economic Challenges 25:23 The Talent Competition and Immigration 28:57 Reflections on Political Labels and Strategy 32:47 Conclusion and Listener Engagement 33:25 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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Bubble Trouble: Laying Out Inconvenient Truths About How Business and Financial Markets Really Work
We always try to flag the smoke signals of mischievous market behaviour that gets society and stock portfolios into trouble. Are we about to get fooled again by the hype and hysteria surrounding the poster child Open AI? Or maybe, just maybe, it’s worth joining us for 30 minutes to find what really sits behind a 150bn valuation and ask whether beauty is in the eye of the beholder? For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) In the latest episode of Bubble Trouble, co-hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page dive into the hype surrounding OpenAI, now valued at $150 billion. They examine the risks of market hype and hysteria behind this soaring valuation, discussing the broader implications for society and the tech industry. The episode explores the nuances of company valuations, comparing public versus private market insights and the lack of transparency in the private sector. With references to past tech bubbles, the hosts analyze the potential conflicts of interest among investors and question the sustainability of current trajectories in tech valuations. As they await the next bubble to burst, Kramer and Page emphasize the importance of scrutinizing underlying business fundamentals in an era of outsized market valuations. 00:00 Introduction 00:49 Part One 01:04 The AI Hype and OpenAI's Valuation 03:25 Understanding Company Valuations 06:32 Public vs Private Market Valuations 10:56 The Transparency Challenge in Tech 15:26 Reflecting on Past Episodes and Lessons 21:12 Part Two 21:49 The Role of Central Banks in Market Bubbles 25:32 Exploring OpenAI's Valuation and Market Dynamics 36:09 Smoke Signals and Future Predictions 43:46 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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Bubble Trouble: Laying Out Inconvenient Truths About How Business and Financial Markets Really Work
1 You Can't Lead If You Don't Know Where You're Going: Big Tech vs Big Gov Tech with Bill Raduchel 50:37
50:37 Play Later Play Later Lists Like Liked50:37
Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedThis week we speak with Bill Raduchel, who has served as a high-level executive and strategic adviser for organizations such as Sun Microsystems, AOL Time Warner, Xerox, McGraw-Hill, and the Salvation Army. Over half a century working with systems, software, and networks, he has remained at the forefront of the technology revolution in media, education, and corporate governance including recognition at Sun as CIO of the Year and the top CFO in the computer industry and at AOL as CTO of the year. He holds more than fifty issued patents as well as a PhD in econometrics from Harvard, where he taught for five years with John Kenneth Galbraith. He has been writing software in some form since he turned fifteen years old in 1961. He is also the author of The New Technology State. This book is about society—how it has changed and what technology is enabling us to do to ourselves. [Repeat from April, 2024] For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) The New Technology State: Redefining the Tech and Government Landscape 00:00 Welcome to Bubble Trouble: A Skeptical Conversation 00:46 A Journey Through Tech and Economics 06:23 The Evolution of Technology and Its Impact on Economics 08:02 The Writing Process and Insights into Bill's Book 11:21 Exploring the New Technology State and Government Challenges 17:43 The Intricacies of Tech Talent and Government Staffing 19:53 Tech Debt and the Challenges of Modernization 25:55 The Global Tech Landscape: Government and Private Sector Dynamics 25:55 Wrapping Up Part One and Teasing Part Two 25:55 Simplifying UK Government Websites: A Double-Edged Sword 25:55 The Dangers of Centralization and Cybersecurity 26:10 Big Tech, Government, and the Quest for Regulation 27:59 The Talent Gap in Government and Tech Regulation Challenges 29:15 Innovative Solutions andthe Power of Decentralization 30:15 The Role of Startups in Tech Innovation and Employee Motivation 31:59 Google's Management Revolution: Lessons in Innovation 34:45 The Complexities of Regulating Big Tech 40:05 Navigating the Future of AI and Government Regulation 42:19 Economics, Education, and the Future Workforce 44:56 Smoke Signals: Warning Signs in Tech and Regulation 50:06 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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Bubble Trouble: Laying Out Inconvenient Truths About How Business and Financial Markets Really Work
1 Law Without Lawyers: A Conversation with Damien Riehl 49:31
49:31 Play Later Play Later Lists Like Liked49:31
Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedOne of the first casualties of the AI race may be lawyers, and that’s where we go this week with Damien Riehl who is at the front line of disrupting the legal profession. Law without lawyers? Really? Are we moving from if to when this tipping point becomes reality. Damien's company: https://vlex.com/vincent-ai Damien's TED Talk: https://www.ted.com/talks/damien_riehl_why_all_melodies_should_be_free_for_musicians_to_use All The Music: https://allthemusic.info/ All the Patents: http://allthepatents.info/ For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) The AI Revolution in Law: Disrupting and Democratizing Legal Services In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the disruptive potential of AI in the legal profession with guest Damien Rio from vLex. The discussion explores the transformative impact of AI on access to legal services, the operational overhaul of legal tasks through large language models, and the future implications for lawyers, courts, and clients. Damien shares insights on his groundbreaking work in automating legal processes, addressing the challenges of legal backlog, and the potential for AI to democratize access to law worldwide. The episode also touches on the impact of AI on litigation strategies, private versus public legal data, and the future landscape of legal arbitration. 00:00 Introduction and Guest Welcome 00:44 Part One 00:52 Damien's Background and TED Talk 01:30 Part Two 01:30 Introduction to V Lex 02:30 The Role of AI in Legal Research 03:41 Disrupting the Legal Profession 07:54 Democratizing Access to Law 09:13 Challenges and Opportunities in Legal Tech 17:59 AI's Impact on Legal Disputes 23:58 The Role of Non-Lawyers in Legal Services 25:28 Democratizing Access to Law 25:58 Part Two 26:08 Economic Impacts of Legal Tech 26:59 Jevons Paradox and Legal Work 28:35 AI in the Judicial System 34:55 Global Implications of Legal Tech 38:18 AI's Limitations and Future in Law 46:45 Copyright and Patent Innovations 48:28 Conclusion and Future Prospects 49:12 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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Bubble Trouble: Laying Out Inconvenient Truths About How Business and Financial Markets Really Work
1 AI Supremacy and Ethical Dilemmas: A Conversation with Parmy Olson 52:35
52:35 Play Later Play Later Lists Like Liked52:35
Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedToday we’ve got a page turner…not that Page, our co-presenter…but a book that brings the AI battle to life: Supremacy: AI, ChatGPT and the Race That Will Change the World, Written by our guest, Parmy Olson. Buckle up as it's going to be a wild ride. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) AI Supremacy and Ethical Dilemmas: A Conversation with Parmy Olson In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page sit down with Bloomberg columnist and AI expert, Parmy Olson, to discuss her new book, 'Supremacy: AI, ChatGPT, and the Race that Will Change the World.' The conversation covers the ethical challenges and regulatory gaps in the AI industry, the role of big tech corporations in AI development, and the societal impact of AI on various sectors including healthcare, education, and law. Olson also shares insights on the bias and unintended consequences of AI technology, the psychology of tech innovators, and the future prospects for the technology. 00:00 Introduction 00:51 Meet the Guest: Parme Olson 01:08 Parmy Olson's Journey in Tech Journalism 02:25 The Fascination with Silicon Valley 03:26 The Metaverse Debate 04:16 Investigative Journalism in Tech 08:05 The AI Hype: Reality or Exaggeration? 10:57 The Race for AI Supremacy 14:29 Unintended Consequences of AI 20:18 The Ethics of AI Development 22:55 Closing Thoughts on AI and Tech 24:49 Part Two 25:23 The Competitive Landscape of AI 26:07 The Shift from Openness to Secrecy 27:42 Meta's Approach to Open Source AI 28:55 The Role of Open Source in Tech Development 30:57 The Allure of High Salaries in AI 31:09 Capitalism and AI: A Cautionary Tale 31:55 The Distinction Between Business and Markets 33:49 AI's Potential in Public Services 36:49 The Future of Law with AI 41:24 The Psychology of Tech Companies 48:06 The Bubble and Reality of AI 49:38 The Future of AI and Human Roles 51:47 Conclusion and Final Thoughts 52:17 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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Bubble Trouble: Laying Out Inconvenient Truths About How Business and Financial Markets Really Work
We’re back from summer break and we want to revisit some past pods as they get dragged into the current of current events, making our predictions as good - or even better - than the AI led herd. Today we’ve got a slew of stories to unpack, from AI Fakes and our podcast with the now-under-threat CEO of Boomy, the unwinding of the greatest money making machine you never heard of, and in Part Two revisiting our Ticketmaster / Live Nation show and the current fiasco of dynamic pricing for Oasis tickets. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) In this episode of 'Bubble Trouble,' hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page dive into two major topics affecting today's financial and entertainment markets. They discuss the recent fraudulent activities surrounding AI-generated music streams, detailing the $10 million scam involving fake fans and manipulated royalties. Moving on, they shed light on the Oasis ticketing debacle, where surge pricing and market manipulation led to skyrocketing ticket prices and public outcry. Throughout the episode, they revisit past discussions, particularly focusing on market turbulence and the intricacies of carry trades. The hosts promise more exciting content and insights into market dynamics as they kick off their autumn season. 00:00 Introduction and Welcome Back 01:08 Part One 01:33 Reflecting on Past Episodes 02:11 Summer Break and Market Turbulence 03:42 Understanding Carry Trades 09:46 Nvidia's Market Impact 13:07 AI Music Fraud Scandal 23:41 Part Two 23:41 Oasis Ticket Fiasco 24:59 Ticket Demand and Dynamic Pricing 26:30 Surge Pricing vs. Dynamic Pricing 30:58 The Role of Ticketmaster and Market Manipulation 36:03 Potential Solutions and Future Outlook 43:07 Concluding Thoughts and Wrap-Up 43:48 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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Bubble Trouble: Laying Out Inconvenient Truths About How Business and Financial Markets Really Work
This week we’re going to keep on pricking bubbles with a fellow cynic of the sycophants and stenographers. Here to help us is David Trainer of New Constructs, whose company makes “robo-adjustments” to the reported accounts of 1000s of listed companies and tries to unearth the real financials behind the content marketing from company investor relations teams. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) In this episode of Bubble Trouble, guest David Trainor, the founder of New Constructs, delves into his background in economics and statistics, his time at Credit Suisse, and his perspective on market bubbles and financial accountability. The discussion ranges from the detrimental effects of rapid, superficial analysis and reporting pervasive in today's investment industry, to the importance of rigorous fundamental analysis in discerning true business value. The conversation also touches on companies' strategic overstatement of profits, the ill-effects of unchecked capital allocation, and the role of artificial intelligence in future financial analytics. As the founder of New Constructs, David highlights how his company is helping investors uncover the real financial situation behind companies' reported accounts. 00:00 Introduction 00:57 Part One 01:02 Guest Introduction: David Trainor 01:26 Understanding New Constructs 02:22 The Cynicism in Wall Street 03:02 David's Backstory and the Tech Bubble 04:11 The Role of Accounting in Business 05:37 The Reality of Wall Street 07:42 The Boy Who Cried Wolf: A Market Perspective 08:27 The Intentionality of Market Bubbles 15:44 The Impact of Algorithmic Trading 18:28 The Difference Between Investing and Speculating 23:49 The Challenge of Limited Company Disclosure 26:12 Part Two 27:34 Discussing the Spectrum of Corporate Ethics 27:42 Highlighting Notorious Corporate Scandals 28:05 Elon Musk: Genius or Snake Oil Salesman? 28:46 The Reality of Earnings Distortion 29:09 The Unsettling Truth About CFOs and Wall Street Analysts 29:40 The Role of Investor Relations Firms 30:37 The Problem with Superficial Analysis 33:43 The Art of Investing: A Touchy Feely Approach 35:55 The Role of AI in the Future of Financial Analysis 47:18 The Dangers of Overstating Profits and Zombie Stocks 50:57 Closing Thoughts and Future Predictions 50:59 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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Bubble Trouble: Laying Out Inconvenient Truths About How Business and Financial Markets Really Work
So let's look forward and prepare you for the next big sexy blockbuster tech IPO, you’ve read all about it - that’s right. Reddit is going to ring the bell. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) Reddit's IPO Adventure: A Deep Dive into Valuations, Trends, and Future Prospects In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page dissect Reddit's impending IPO, examining its valuation, user base, and revenue streams. The podcast begins with a discussion on the evolution of Reddit and its business model, focusing on the challenges it faces as a business primarily driven by advertising revenue in a competitive digital advertising landscape. Kramer and Page delve into the nuances of Reddit's user engagement and its niche position in the internet culture, juxtaposing it against giants like Meta and Google. They critically analyze the hype surrounding tech IPOs, emphasizing Reddit's $800 million revenue and its struggle to become profitable amidst a sprawling digital advertising world. The episode also covers the broader implications of down rounds and the valuation bubbles that tech companies often face. Through expert insights and a candid conversation, the episode offers a comprehensive view on Reddit's IPO, the tech industry's valuation practices, and what the future holds for user-generated content platforms. 00:00 Welcome to Bubble Trouble: DeepFakes and Bubbles 01:02 Part One 01:06 The Fascinating Shift from Hong Kong to Singapore 02:52 Reddit's Upcoming IPO: A Deep Dive 03:25 Exploring Reddit's Niche and Financials 06:04 The Cultural Impact and Controversies of Reddit 08:58 Reddit IPO Strategies and User Dynamics 10:43 Inside Reddit: Culture, Compliance, and Future Prospects 16:00 Part Two 16:00 South by Southwest Festival Insights 20:04 Back to Reddit: IPO Details and Expectations 21:22 Technical Difficulties and Starting Off 21:24 Exploring Down Rounds: A Deep Dive 23:48 The Reality of Valuations and Market Corrections 24:42 Tech Companies' Valuations Post-Pandemic 25:41 Reddit's Revenue Diversification and Data Deals 27:15 The Creator Economy: Expectations vs. Reality 29:48 Reddit's IPO: A Case Study in Market Dynamics 34:49 Smoke Signals for Future IPOs 38:21 Reflecting on Reddit and the IPO Landscape 40:20 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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Bubble Trouble: Laying Out Inconvenient Truths About How Business and Financial Markets Really Work
1 Kill the Chicken to Scare The Monkey with guest Linda Yueh 1:00:57
1:00:57 Play Later Play Later Lists Like Liked1:00:57
Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedThis week we talk with Linda Yueh, author of the book The Great Crashes. Since America's Wall Street Crash of 1929, the global economy has weathered the most tumultuous century in financial history. From the currency crises of the 1980s, to Japan's housing meltdown, the dot com boom and bust, the global financial crash and the COVID pandemic, crash after crash has sent shockwaves through our world. The Great Crashes tells the stories of ten of these historic financial events. They serve as a series of cautionary tales, each with their own lessons to be learnt. With clear-eyed analysis, renowned economist Professor Linda Yueh uses these meltdowns to extract a critical three-step framework to help recognise the early signs of a crash, mitigate the effects and even prevent them in the future. There is very little that is certain in economics, except for this: there will be another financial crisis. [Repeat from March 2024] For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) Understanding Economic Bubbles and Crises: Insights from Linda Yu This episode of Bubble Trouble features Richard Kramer and Will Page in conversation with Linda Yu, the author of 'The Great Crashes', discussing lessons from historical economic downturns and ways to prevent future crises. Yu shares her unique perspectives drawn from her experiences in journalism, academia, and having been a witness to several economic crashes. The conversation covers the dynamics of bubbles, the role of banks and debt in triggering financial crises, regulatory challenges, the impact of policy decisions on economic inequality, and the specific case of China's impending financial instability. Throughout, the importance of understanding human nature's role in financial markets and the necessity for credible crisis management strategies are underscored. 00:02 Introduction 00:47 Part One 00:47 Introducing Linda Yu: From BBC to Authorship 01:34 Linda Yu's Journey: Academia, Books, and Economic Crashes 02:06 The Making of 'The Great Crashes': A Deep Dive into Economic Meltdowns 06:04 Understanding Crises: The Three Phases of Economic Downturns 08:47 The Role of Banks in Economic Crises: A Critical Examination 15:12 Regulatory Challenges and the Shadow Banking System 22:06 Educational Insights: The Importance of Economic History 26:52 The Eurocrisis and Bail-Ins: A New Approach to Banking Failures 29:58 Part Two 30:10 Preview of Part Two: Further Explorations into Economic Crises 31:16 Exploring Economic Festivals and the Humor in Economics 32:06 The Serious Side of Economic Crime in China 32:14 Navigating the Iceberg: China's Economic Challenges 33:07 The Next Great Crush: Predicting China's Economic Future 33:39 The Intricacies of China's Banking System and Property Bubble 34:56 China's Influence on Global Markets and Emerging Economies 35:30 China's Unique Approach to Big Tech Regulation 39:25 The Consequences of Financial Penalties on Banks 41:03 Preventing the Next Great Crash: Policy Levers and Their Effectiveness 46:13 The Unintended Consequences of Economic Policies 55:10 Crisis Management and the Importance of Credibility 59:19 Final Thoughts and the Future of Economic Crises 01:00:30 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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Bubble Trouble: Laying Out Inconvenient Truths About How Business and Financial Markets Really Work
1 Thames Water gets Whacked with guest Feargal Sharkey 58:10
58:10 Play Later Play Later Lists Like Liked58:10
Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedToday, we welcome back Feargal Sharkey, who visited Bubble Trouble last summer and dropped a (water) bomb on our privatized utilities. He’s fought the noble fight to expose Thames Water as profiteering polluters. Nine months later we have a massive credit bubble bursting, dumping toxic sewage in both debt laden shell companies and the real shit floating in our rivers and seas, while private equity owners took out £78bn of dividends since privatization kicked in. A warning: this conversation should make everyone angry, whether you draw a drink, go for a wild swim, or just watch your rising water bill - asking how this utility privatization bubble caused so much trouble. [Repeat from April 2024} For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) This episode of Bubble Trouble features hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page, with return guest Fergal Sharkey, discussing the failing state of privatized water companies in England. Highlighted are the issues of excessive dividends extracted by private equity owners, the massive debt incurred by water companies, regulatory failures, and the environmental costs of pollution. Sharkie shares his firsthand experiences with water pollution and regulatory battles. The episode delves into the implications of privatization on public resources, the potential for nationalization, and the urgent need for systemic reform in water management amidst mounting public outrage and the looming crisis of water scarcity in London. The conversation encapsulates the complexities of privatization, the financial engineering driving the water industry's woes, and the palpable need for political and regulatory intervention. 00:00 Introduction 00:55 Introducing Repeat Guest Fergal Sharkey: A Deep Dive into Water Industry Woes 00:59 Part One 01:28 Fergal Sharkey's Journey: From Fly Fishing to Fighting Water Privatization 03:27 The Alarming State of England's Privatized Water Industry 06:47 Investigative Journalism and the Mainstream Media's Role 07:44 Exploring the Nationalization Debate and Its Complexities 11:06 Regulatory Failures and the Environmental Catastrophe 14:27 The Financial Quagmire: Debt, Dividends, and the Dire State of Infrastructure 22:00 Addressing the Bondholders: A Call for Accountability 27:12 Part Two 27:12 Looking Ahead: Solutions and the Future of Water Privatization 31:49 The Inefficiency of Global Success 32:11 System-Level Solutions for Water Management 33:14 The Looming Water Crisis in London 34:01 Government's Role in Managing the Water Industry 34:42 The Financial Challenge of Securing London's Water Supply 35:27 Reforming the Water Industry: A Shift in Earnings and Management 35:59 Empathy for the Regulator and the Need for Investment 41:10 Nationalizing the Water Companies: A Strategic Move 47:04 Political Pressure and Regulatory Challenges 49:42 Privatization's Failures and Future Directions 55:20 Concluding Thoughts and the Public's Role 57:34 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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Bubble Trouble: Laying Out Inconvenient Truths About How Business and Financial Markets Really Work
1 In Conversation with Former Enron CFO Andy Fastow Part Two 53:18
53:18 Play Later Play Later Lists Like Liked53:18
Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedFor more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com In this milestone 100th episode of Bubble Trouble podcast, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page converse with former Enron CFO, Andy Fastow, discussing the downfall of Enron, financial regulation, the financial crisis, and the manipulation of financial statements. Fastow delves into the fine line between legal and illegal practices in finance, highlighting how business leaders can inject more risk than they realize when operating within the 'gray areas' of business and finance. He also shares his insights into public pension liabilities, the potential tipping point for public finances, and how the perception of different companies can drastically change based on financial reporting and assumptions. [Repeat from December 2023] 0:00 BT 101 In Conversation with Former Enron CFO Andy Fastow Part Two 00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble 00:42 Part One 19:03 Exploring the Role of Technology in Financial Crises 22:20 Understanding the Impact of Government Accounting 29:09 Enron's Advisory Board and Structured Finance Deals 30:11 Reflections on Enron's Financial Practices 30:41 Government's Financial Engineering 30:58 Imputed Rent and Government Statistics 32:25 Part Two 32:25 Inflation and its Impact 32:25 Inequality and Low Interest Rates 32:40 The Role of Analysts and Ethics in Finance 33:34 The University of Colorado Case Study 49:29 Closing Thoughts on Ethics and Reciprocity in Finance 52:59 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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Bubble Trouble: Laying Out Inconvenient Truths About How Business and Financial Markets Really Work
1 In Conversation with Former Enron CFO Andy Fastow Part One 55:50
55:50 Play Later Play Later Lists Like Liked55:50
Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedFor more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com In this 100th episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page discuss the inner workings of business and financial markets, shedding light on their truths via conversations with their guest, former CFO of Enron, Andy Fastow. They discuss the key factors that led to the downfall of Enron, including the exploitation of accounting 'loopholes' and the destructive impact of mark-to-market accounting and how it leads companies into a risk-laden gray area of business. They also cover the issues surrounding operating leases, addressing the ethical debate of 'genius' vs 'evil'. Furthermore, they delve into insightful examples of business mishaps and financial irregularities including the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank. Fastow expresses his regret and responsibility for Enron's downfall, highlighting the difference between technically following the accounting rules and creating misleading financial impressions of a company. [Repeat from November 2023] 0:00 BT 100 In Conversation with Former Enron CFO Andy Fastow Part One 00:02 Introduction 00:02 Introduction and Overview of Bubble Trouble 00:15 Reflecting on Past Episodes and Topics 00:41 Unpacking the Enron Scandal 01:23 Part One 01:25 Interview with Andy Fastow, Former CFO of Enron 08:33 Understanding the Role of Auditors and Attorneys 10:59 Exploring the Concept of Loopholes 13:46 The Reality of Operating in the Gray Area 25:46 The Distinction Between Different Types of Fraud 27:19 The Conflict of Interest in Financial Analysis 28:53 Part Two 28:53 Continuation of Conversation with Andy Fastow 30:43 Enron's Acquisition and Financing Strategy 31:14 The Use of Operating Leases in Enron 32:46 The Legal Hurdles and Creative Solutions 35:56 The Impact of Financial Innovation 38:11 The Dangers of Mark to Market Accounting 41:53 The Role of Incentives in Financial Reporting 46:56 The Case of Silicon Valley Bank 53:42 The Role of Analysts and Banks in Financial Misrepresentation 54:54 Closing Remarks and Preview of Part Two 55:31 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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Bubble Trouble: Laying Out Inconvenient Truths About How Business and Financial Markets Really Work
This week, we freeform on two topics: summer music festivals and the stock markets. Will has identified a very interesting bubble this summer, which is the rapid cancellation of music festivals. Perhaps because supply got ahead of demand or perhaps because of extraneous factors, we wanna look into why so few people want to be standing out in their field or outstanding in their field. We're also gonna talk a little bit about the way in which random comments from politicians are roiling the stock markets. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) In this episode of Bubble Trouble, economist Will Page and independent analyst Richard Kramer discuss the rapid cancellation of music festivals amidst the backdrop of a post-pandemic economic squeeze and over-supply of events. They detail the impact on the live music ecosystem, examining how financial constraints and shifting consumer choices are reshaping the market. Additionally, they delve into how random political comments are affecting the stock markets, with a specific focus on a recent market wobble triggered by remarks from Donald Trump and the narrowing breadth of tech stock support. The episode links the volatility in both the live music industry and financial markets, providing a comprehensive analysis of the current economic landscape. 00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble 00:58 Part One 00:58 The Decline of Music Festivals 02:09 Supply and Demand in Live Music 04:14 Economic Factors Affecting Festivals 07:29 The Impact on the Music Ecosystem 08:38 Dynamic Pricing and Ticketing Issues 15:44 The Future of Live Music and Festivals 20:33 Part Two 21:10 Market Turmoil: What's Happening? 22:39 The Fragility of the Market 23:37 Political Impact on Markets 24:12 Investor Reactions and Strategies 29:56 Global Market Contagion 33:23 The Tech Sector's Wild Ride 34:40 Political Volatility and Market Uncertainty 41:44 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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Bubble Trouble: Laying Out Inconvenient Truths About How Business and Financial Markets Really Work
1 AI Bubbles are Bursting with Andrew Orlowski 52:10
52:10 Play Later Play Later Lists Like Liked52:10
Play Later Play Later Lists Like LikedToday we’ve got a guest who's been doing our job for decades. Andrew Orlowski is a writer who has followed the technology industry for two decades, so he’s see the hype cycle peak and trough many times. For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/ More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com (Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.) In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page are joined by veteran technology journalist Andrew Orlowski. They delve into the recurring market bubbles and dissect the relentless hype surrounding AI and machine learning. Orlowski discusses his track record in identifying technology bubbles and shares his skepticism about the transformative claims made about AI, comparing it to historical overhyped innovations like the metaverse and cryptocurrency. The discussion also touches on the implications of AI on productivity, labor markets, and the economy at large, highlighting the disconnect between policy elites’ expectations and real-world applications. Throughout, the panel emphasizes the broader societal impacts and the role of critical scrutiny in understanding technological advancements. 00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble 00:44 Part One 00:49 Meet Andrew Orlowski 01:43 The Origins of Bubble Trouble 02:06 Spotting Bubbles: Andrew's Track Record 02:39 Google's Market Manipulation 07:00 The AI Hype Cycle 12:08 AI's Economic Impact and Skepticism 19:10 The Future of AI and Technology 26:13 Debunking the Efficiency Myth in Tech Companies 26:39 The Role of AI in Financial Markets 28:10 AI Skepticism and the Hype Cycle 28:20 Part Two 29:02 The Future of Chatbots and Machine Learning 30:06 Public Skepticism vs. Elite Optimism 35:54 The Nature of Work and Productivity 42:13 The Middle Class Advantage in the Modern Workplace 45:40 The AI Bubble and Its Implications 49:01 Smoke Signals: Red Flags in the AI Industry 51:19 Conclusion and Final Thoughts 51:51 Credits Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…
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