The Macro Trading Floor is a fun and actionable macro and markets podcast hosted by Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly. If you are looking for banter, financial education, and actionable trade ideas this is the podcast for you!
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The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Jack Farley interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.
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Thank you for tuning in! This podcast is about being able to successfully navigate the markets with some of the most successful people in the industry! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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Alfonso Peccatiello: The Fed Put Is Back, Bull Steepener Base Case
1:02:06
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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Follow Alf on Twitter https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/J…
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The Bank of England pre-announced a rate cut in June, the Swedish Riksbank cut interest rates, and there are a few early signs of weakness emerging in the US as well. Is the market ready for a regime switch? Alf and Brent also discuss how they approach trading into volatile events, breaking long-term correlation, and the structural USD strength. Li…
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Andy Constan: The Bond Market Will Take The Stock Market Down With It
56:36
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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspring Follow Two Gray Beards on Twitter https://twitter.com/2Graybeards Follow VanEck on Twitter ht…
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Descrizione: Nominal growth is showing some early signs of fatigue, while economists' expectations remain elevated and market pricing still quite hawkish. Alf and Brent discuss potential opportunities arising from this setup, and spend time arguing whether Powell just announced a new Fed Put this week. Link to Brent's favorite podcast this week: ht…
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Investing For A Recession-Free Future | Vincent Deluard on Secularly-High Inflation, China’s Currency Crisis, and The Long-Term Debt Cycle
1:25:09
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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter htt…
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Powell’s Last Stand | Danielle DiMartino Booth on May Fed Meeting 2024
1:12:17
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For access to 20% discount to annual subscription of Danielle DiMartino Booth’s “Daily Feather”: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/forward Or use code “FORWARD” at checkout. Deal expires on May 23, 2024. 20% discount applies to first year subscription. __ Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Fa…
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The Crypto Endgame in 2024 | Fireside Chat with Pranav Kanade, portfolio manager of the VanEck Digital Assets Alpha Fund
1:05:18
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This is a paid sponsorship on behalf of Van Eck Associates Corporation. Today’s episode of Forward Guidance is a special fireside chat with Pranav Kanade, portfolio manager of the VanEck Digital Assets Alpha Fund. Kanade shares his philosophy for investing in crypto, and discusses his views on Prior to joining VanEck, Mr. Kanade worked as a Credit …
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US Q1 Real GDP printed below expectations but still at a respectable 1.6%, and core inflation was hotter than analysts forecast: more fuel on the fire of the reflation theme? Alf and Brent present a contrarian macro thesis instead, and also discuss the odds of a Chinese devaluation and more. Finally, they talk about the pros/cons of using stop loss…
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The Stock Market Will Melt-Up As Inflation Resurges | Harris Kupperman
51:52
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This week Harris Kupperman returns to the show for a discussion on how he is thinking about markets in 2024. Expecting bonds to continue selling off, will equity markets crumble or continue to melt up as fiscal dominance takes the reigns? Harris then shares his thoughts on some of the best opportunities he is seeing in markets such as oil, gold min…
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Can The U.S Handle High Interest Rates Past 2024? | Ben Miller
1:21:18
1:21:18
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This week Ben Miller Fundrise Co-Founder and CEO joins the show. We begin by discussing the U.S public debt problem as debt to GDP remains elevated over 100%. For the second half of the conversation, we deep dive into the current state of the U.S real estate market focusing primarily on CRE. Enjoy! -- Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn …
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Chris Whalen: “Higher For Longer” Interest Rate Regime Is Bad For Banks
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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twit…
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The Fed is all of a sudden opening up to the possibility of hikes: what now? But most importantly: have you ever thought about the possibility of Fed hikes being stimulative? And finally: do you have any idea why every Central Bank in the world is targeting exactly 2% for inflation? Alf and Brent discuss this and much more in today's episode - have…
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The Great Liquidity Debate | Michael Howell & George Robertson on Monetary vs. Fiscal Flows And What Is Truly Driving This Bull Market
1:34:55
1:34:55
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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital and George Robertson of The Monetary Fronteir have two things in common: they both correctly predicted the renewed bull…
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Mark Dow: The Bears Are Making Stuff Up About Fed/Treasury Plumbing To Excuse The Fact That They Were Wrong
1:33:16
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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Mark Dow has had experience in the global monetary system, having worked at the IMF, as an advisor to three Presidents, and at many central banks around the …
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This week Alf and Brent discuss how markets seem to be on the lookout for a release valve for the combination of a Fed talking about cuts while nominal growth doesn't call for them: commodiites, bond markets, and the US Dollar seem to be all brewing under the surface. But what will actually break markets?…
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The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield”
1:10:33
1:10:33
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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Jonathan Treussard of Treussard Capital Management joins Forward Guidance to help define what a bubble is. By his strict definition, nothing qualifies right …
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Interested in Alf's Macro Fund? Send an email to fund@themacrocompass.com Markets are in reflation mode with commodities getting bid all over the place: not only gold and crude oil, but also silver, copper, zinc, you name it. Also, the US Dollar is showing signs of topping and it all starts to closely remind one of the most volatile macro periods e…
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Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold
1:39:34
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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro joins Forward Guidance for the first time to share his learnings from an extensive career as an investment banker mov…
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The "Beijing Put" | Jason Hsu's Bull Case For Chinese Stocks
1:19:33
1:19:33
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Jason Hsu of Rayliant joins Forward Guidance to share his view on the particulars of the Chinese equity market. Hsu argues that th…
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Inflation Isn’t Going Away And Investors Own The Wrong Assets | Larry McDonald on “When Markets Speak”
1:06:37
1:06:37
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Lawrence McDonald, New York Times Bestselling author and founder of The Bear Traps Report returns to Forward Guidance to discuss h…
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Alf welcomes back Brent to the show, and the co-host duo discusses macro data, Fed's Waller speech, Japan and China. But most importantly they share thoughts and observations about the current low volatility market regime, how to approach it trying to avoid the most common macro traders' mistakes, and how to think of risk/reward when looking at ins…
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Joseph Wang, Michael Howell, Julian Brigden, and Jonny Matthews on 2024 Macro Outlook | Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (Recorded March 19, 2024)
40:25
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ This is a recorded version of Jack’s macro panel at the 2024 Digital Asset Summit hosted by Blockworks, recorded in London on Marc…
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Russell Napier On The Rise And Fall Of The Age Of Debt And China’s Choice Between Deflation and Devaluation
1:13:02
1:13:02
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Russell Napier, founder of Orlock Advisors and publisher of The Solid Ground Newsletter, returns to Forward Guidance to share how …
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Dario Perkins: These Central Banks Better Pivot Fast
36:46
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This week Alf welcomes Dario Perkins to the show. Dario discusses how we got here with much more benign inflationary dynamics without a big damage to labor markets - hint: Central Bankers were lucky more than skilled. Dario and Alf discuss the path ahead for economies and monetary policy, and a trade idea. Alf opens and closes the show with his tho…
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Dr. Ingo Sauer on Hyperinflation, Central Bank Insolvency, and The ECB (European Central Bank)
2:27:52
2:27:52
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Dr. Ingo Sauer of Goethe University Frankfurt joins Forward Guidance to share findings from his 360 paper on Hyperinflation in 192…
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The bond market is waking up to the idea that inflation might be a bit stickier and the Fed's hands are tied. Alf and Brent discuss what this implies for global macro asset classes, and highlight a few trade ideas. Sign up for the free waiting list for Brent's upcoming Spectra School course: https://www.spectramarkets.com/school/…
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Nick Halaris: Commercial Real Estate Hanging In There Despite "Crushing" Interest Rate Shock
1:04:51
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ Nick Halaris, President of Metros Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers on real estate situation in the U.S. Though …
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Liz Ann Sonders: There's No Such Thing As A Typical Interest Rate Cutting Cycle
58:40
58:40
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, returns to Forward Guidance to share her investment outlook on U.S…
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The Fate Of The Fed's Balance Sheet | Lou Crandall & Joseph Wang on Draining of Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility, Timeline of QT Taper, and 2024 Tax Refund Data
52:07
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Lou Crandall on Twitter https://twitter.com/Fedwatcher Joseph's …
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Alf and Brent discuss how animal spirits seem to be running loose in several asset classes. Signs are evident not only in stocks but also in gold, Bitcoin and option markets. They also focus on Japan and the potential tectonic shifts in the Bank of Japan monetary policy stance.By Alfonso Peccatiello & Brent Donnelly
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The Erosion of Institutional Accountability | Dr. Luigi Zingales on Bank Failures, Whistleblowing, and The Fed
54:57
54:57
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Luigi Zingales on Twitter https://twitter.com/zingales?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor Follow Capita…
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Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929
1:42:04
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Milton Berg, renowned market technician known to viewers for his contrarian bullish call in January of 2023, returns to Forward Guidance with a far less rosy outlook. As of recording on February 28, 2024, Berg is decidedly bearish in the face of a stupendous stock market rally. He sees signs of an exhaustive peak and expects a decline, which could …
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Remi on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheKingCourt Remi’s Substack, “The Mad King”: https://onemadking.substack.com/ Follow V…
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Alf and Brent discuss the outlook for the US economy, and how bond markets have adjusted their pricing to reflect the odds of a soft landing. Is there a trade maybe? They then move their focus to Canada, Europe, New Zealand, China: a tour around the world searching for macro opportunities. Two trade ideas and the most useful/stupidest thing they he…
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Claudia Sahm: The Fed Itself Is The Biggest Risk To A Soft Landing
1:06:10
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Claudia Sahm on Twitter https://twitter.com/Claudia_Sahm Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack…
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Adrian Helfert on Stock/Bond Allocation, Equity Broadening, and Credit Market Richness
1:05:15
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Adrian Helfert, chief investment officer of Westwood Holdings Group (AUM ~$16B), joins Forward Guidance to share his quantitative approach to asset allocation. He explains why, even with the drastic surge in interest rates, he prefers an overweight allocation to equities over bonds. Filmed on February 21, 2024. __ Finally, you can easily access Bit…
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Overheated Stock Market To Correct Before Continuing Rally | Le Shrub on Le Shrub on AI, CRE, and China
1:26:21
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more.VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Le Shrub on Twitter https://twitter.com/agnostoxxx Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley…
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The Macro Trading Floor is back! And there are quite some surprises...By Alfonso Peccatiello & Brent Donnelly
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Real Estate Crisis Hits Two German Banks | Josef Pschorn on Deutsche Pfandbriefbank and Aareal Bank
52:29
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forwa…
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Swiss Re’s Patrick Saner on Soft Landing Scenario, Central Bank Balance Sheet Policy, and Inflation Volatility
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Patrick Saner, Head of Macro Strategy at Swiss Re, joins Forward Guidance to share his insights on the global economy, interest rates, and central bank policy. Filmed on February 16, 2024. Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trus…
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Paul Sankey: Oil Would Be Below $60 If It Weren’t For Saudi Production Cuts
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Paul Sankey on Twitter https://twitter.com/crudegusher Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack F…
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Secrets of Small Cap Value Investing | Kyle Mowery
1:17:31
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forwa…
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The Rising Risks In The Private Credit Lending Bonanza | Andrzej Skiba
1:12:42
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forwa…
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Danny Dayan: Reacceleration Risk Threatens Bond Market, Demographics In U.S. Are Inflationary (Not Deflationary)
1:17:22
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Danny Dayan on Twitter: https://twitter.com/DannyDayan5 Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack …
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Martin Pelletier & Joseph Wang on Stock Market Concentration, Cash-Futures Treasury Basis Trade, Structured Products, and New York Community Bank
1:11:05
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By Blockworks
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China’s Deflation Trap | Brian McCarthy On The Popping Of The World’s Biggest Bubble Ever
1:24:52
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Brian McCarthy on Twitter https://twitter.com/briangobosox Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Ja…
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Citrini: The Next Phase of The Stock Market's AI-Obsession
1:14:14
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Citrini on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Citrini7 Citrini's Substack: https://www.citriniresearch.com/ Follow VanEck on Twit…
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Dean Curnutt: Market Insurance Is Cheap, Stock-Bond Correlation Is Positive, And “Interesting” VIX Opportunities
1:24:09
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. Dean Curnutt, founder and CEO of Macro Risk Advisors, joins Forward Guidance to share how the ongoing bull market has led to a bear market in volatility. Realized and implied vol has fallen sharply as the mar…
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Joseph Wang On “Hawkish” Fed Meeting: March Cuts Unlikely, Tapering of Quantitative Tightening (QT) To Begin In Q4 2024 | Joseph Wang, Michael Ippolito, and Jack Farley
1:03:11
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__ Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Jack, Joseph Wang, and Mike Ippolito break down the January Fed meeting. Recorded shortly after the Powell press conference on January 31, 2024. __ Follow Jo…
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U.S. Treasury Issuance To Exceed $1.1 Trillion (Gross) In Second Quarter, Predicts Plumbing Savant John Comiskey
1:22:43
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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ John Comiskey’s day job does not involve processing reams of data on the daily deposits and withdrawals of the U.S. Treasury’s bank account in order to predict how much th…
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