The Trivium China podcast

#News #China #Trivium China #Beijing #Government #Policy #Economy #Technology #Finance #Innovation #pXi Jinping

46:39

“If we march into that village and we start trying to persecute people for using poison, something that's very illegal, nobody's going to talk to us. We're not going to find out where the poison came from. We're not going to be able to shut anything down. We should take the approach that people are using poison because they're desperate, because they see no other alternative.” – Andrew Stein Andrew Stein is a wildlife ecologist who spent the past 25 years studying human carnivore conflict from African wild dogs and lions in Kenya and Botswana to leopards and hyenas in Namibia. His work has long focused on finding ways for people and predators to coexist. He is the founder of CLAWS , an organization based in Botswana that's working at the intersection of cutting-edge wildlife research and community driven conservation. Since its start in 2014 and official launch as an NGO in 2020, CLAWS has been pioneering science-based, tech-forward strategies to reduce conflict between people and carnivores. By collaborating closely with local communities, especially traditional cattle herders, CLAWS supports both species conservation and rural livelihoods—making coexistence not just possible, but sustainable.…

The Trivium China Podcast

Series home•Feed

Trivium China is an analysis firm that specializes in monitoring Chinese government policy. From our offices in Beijing, Shanghai, and DC, we break down Beijing's latest moves on the economy, technology, energy, climate, and agriculture.

22 episodes

The Trivium China Podcast

14 subscribers

updated 6 days ago

Series home•Feed

22 episodes

#News #China #Trivium China #Beijing #Government #Policy #Economy #Technology #Finance #Innovation #pXi Jinping

모든 에피소드

1
Ep 22 - The tariffs “have become a joke” + rare earth controls 46:29

6 days ago46:29

46:29

In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined again by Cory Combs, Trivium’s head of supply chain research, to unpack the latest US-China trade war twists. The two discuss: Friday’s pause in the tariff escalation China’s pointed efforts to signal it won’t escalate further Whether the pause has staying power Why a painful stalemate is still far better than some of the alternatives The two then examine China’s latest export controls on rare earth elements. Cory breaks down the key dynamics, implications for companies, and what to expect next.…

1
Ep 21 - Trivium Markets and Politics - US-China tariff dumpster fire 44:12

11 days ago44:12

44:12

In this week’s Trivium China podcast, Trivium co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver unpack the whirlwind tariff tit-for-tat between the US and China over the past week. The two discuss: Whether we are now locked in an unstoppable escalatory spiral Possible off-ramps for de-escalation How each side is misreading the other The best- and worst-case scenarios from here China’s likely policy support for the domestic economy amid sky-high tariffs Buckle up!…

1
Ep 20 - Trivium Markets and Politics - Xi meets foreign execs, China’s Liberation Day reaction, and Beijing’s latest efforts to develop flying cars 54:01

18 days ago54:01

54:01

In this week’s podcast, Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk links up with Trivium Co-founder Trey McArver. The two: Pick up on last week’s conversation about foreign businesses in China, walking through Xi Jinping’s big meeting with foreign CEOs on Friday Discuss China’s intervention in the Panama port deal between BlackRock and CK Hutchison Preview China’s likely response to Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs Then Andrew speaks with Trivium’s Head of China Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to get into Beijing’s latest efforts to develop flying car technology. This one covers a lot of ground – and you won’t want to miss any of it.…

1
Ep 19 - Trivium Markets and Politics - Beijing courts global CEOs + sharpens economic coercion tools 52:22

25 days ago52:22

52:22

This week, Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk sat down in Shanghai with fellow Co-founder Ether Yin and Trivium’s Head of Geopolitical Research Joe Mazur to discuss: Global businesses in Beijing for the China Development Forum The messages Chinese leaders are sending to the business community The stark contrast in mood between domestic and foreign businesses in China Whether consumer sentiment is finally turning a corner Beijing’s latest updates to the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law…

1
Ep 18 - Trivium Markets and Politics - Action plan on consumption + trade war impacts on agriculture 48:08

5 weeks ago48:08

48:08

In this week’s podcast, Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Director of China Ag Research Even Pay. The two first discuss the biggest policy move out of China over the last week: · Beijing’s big new plan to boost consumption this year Spoiler alert: There’s a lot in the plan, but we’re still skeptical it will be enough to get consumers to pull out their wallets any time soon. Andrew and Even then discuss how all the latest moves in the US-China trade war are impacting China’s ag sector – and Xi Jinping’s view of food security. · They also touch on what may be coming next on the ag, food security, and trade fronts. Enjoy!…

1
Ep 17 - Trivium Markets and Politics - Xi Jinping's innovation obsession + the critical minerals race 1:06:23

5 weeks ago1:06:23

1:06:23

That’s a wrap, folks! The Two Sessions officially concluded in Beijing on Tuesday – just in time for this week’s podcast. To begin the pod, Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by fellow Co-founder Trey McArver to break down the key policy themes from the meetings – through the lens of Xi Jinping’s itinerary. Spoiler alert: It’s pretty much all about innovation. But wait, there’s more! We round out the pod with a special discussion of the evolving critical minerals race with Lewis Black, co-founder and CEO of Almonty Industries, the world’s largest non-Chinese tungsten miner. Lewis joins Andrew and Cory Combs, Trivium’s Head of Critical Minerals and Supply Chain Research, to examine supply chain geopolitics and its impacts on economic and national security. Needless to say, Lewis has some unique insights to share on: How the West became "addicted to the simplicity" of Chinese supply chains Why the 2008 financial crisis should have been a wake-up call in the crit-min space Why disparities between commercial and national interests mean the US simply can’t build out critical supply chains in the same way China has How he would advise the US to approach diversification You won’t want to miss a minute.…

1
Ep 16 - Trivium Markets - Decoding China’s 2025 economic playbook + Joining the Sinica Podcast Network 1:18:46

7 weeks ago1:18:46

1:18:46

The wait is over: China’s annual policy extravaganza, the Two Sessions, kicked off in Beijing on March 4. In our latest podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, head of markets research, unpack the key economic targets in Premier Li Qiang’s Government Work Report. Given the economic headwinds – sluggish consumer demand, deflationary pressures, ongoing property sector woes, and an escalating trade war with the US – the stakes are high for getting the policy settings right. The gents kick things off by analyzing the implications of the 2025 GDP, inflation, and budget deficit targets for China’s economic prospects. They then dig into the spending and borrowing targets for the year ahead. Spoiler alert: There are some big numbers, but there’s less here than meets the eye. Finally, they wrap up with a quick discussion of China’s rapid-fire response to the second round of Trump tariffs. And this BIG: With this podcast episode, we are officially joining the Sinica Podcast Network . Following Dinny and Andrew's conversation, stay tuned for a follow up conversation between Trivium China Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver, and the man behind Sinica, Kaiser Kuo. It's a great discussion, and we're all excited about the new pod partnership!…

1
Ep 15 - Trivium Tech - AI fever and the future of China’s private sector 1:01:30

7 weeks ago1:01:30

1:01:30

The firehose of tech-related China policy developments has been at full blast over the past few weeks. And as always, Trivium is here to break down all the latest. In this week’s podcast, Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium Partner and Head of Tech Policy Research Kendra Schaefer to discuss: Xi Jinping’s recent confab with private-sector tech executives What the meeting portends for private companies’ future role in advancing China’s tech ambitions The recent bevy of AI infrastructure investment announcements out of China How the recent DeepSeek revelation is driving it all China’s likely response to Trump’s America First Investment Policy They also touch on whether “another DeepSeek” is lurking somewhere in China’s AI ecosystem, just waiting to be discovered – and how to find it. If we do say so ourselves: This one is a can’t-miss, folks. We hope you enjoy the discussion as much as we did. We’ll have a lot more on all these topics in future episodes.…

1
Ep 14 - Trivium Markets - China’s best industrial policy is climate policy 1:00:12

9 weeks ago1:00:12

1:00:12

To thrive in the long term, China needs to undergo near-total industrial restructuring. So how’s that going? In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Cory Combs, Head of Critical Mineral and Supply Chain Research, discuss the key dynamics driving China’s policy-driven industrial transition, including: How Beijing has been using calls for climate action to drive industrial production up the value chain Where China’s painfully overcrowded new energy vehicle (NEV) market goes from here What recent renewable energy reforms in the world’s largest electricity system mean for the future of both energy and manufacturing in China In looking at the issues, the gents draw from some of our less publicly visible research – providing snapshots of a much bigger (and messier) picture. Which is to say, there’s much more to come.…

1
Ep 13 - Trivium Markets - China’s Q4 growth miracle, and future prospects for its export machine 49:21

9 weeks ago49:21

49:21

While there was never any doubt that China would hit its 2024 GDP growth target of “around 5%,” the general consensus was that full-year growth would come in somewhere near the bottom end of what might acceptably be considered “around.” Needless to say, it was quite a surprise when the stats bureau announced the economy had expanded by a full 5% in 2024. Even more surprising was that the economy had grown by 5.4% y/y in Q4 without any additional stimulus, when Q3 growth had only been 4.6%. In this week’s macro podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss where the growth came from (spoiler alert: it was exports) and whether it’s sustainable in 2025. They also discuss Andrew’s insights from his recent jaunt to Vietnam, Taiwan, and the Philippines.…

1
Ep 12 - Trivium Markets and Politics - Game on: Beijing hits back at latest Trump tariffs 1:02:05

10 weeks ago1:02:05

1:02:05

2025 is off to a rollicking start – especially when it comes to all things China. After an extended hiatus from the pod, your friendly Trivium China team is back in the saddle to keep you up to date on all the latest happenings. This episode features a discussion on the week’s back-and-forth between China and the US on the econ and tech fronts, featuring: Your loyal pod host, Andrew Polk, Trivium Co-founder Trey McArver, Trivium Co-founder Cory Combs, Trivium’s Head of Critical Mineral and Supply Chain Research After setting the scene with a quick rundown of the bevy of back-and-forth punches between the two countries since the start of the year, the gents dig into China’s response to the latest Trump tariffs, discussing: The multi-faceted nature of the response – and the message Beijing is trying to send the Trump administration What these moves mean for China’s future approach to economic and tech competition with the US The disparity between Trump’s across-the-board tariffs versus Xi’s moves to inflict more targeted pain What lies ahead in China’s evolving use of its export control regime There was a lot of ground to cover – and we suspect this is only the beginning.…

1
Ep 11 - Trivium Markets - Key takeaways from the Central Economic Work Conference 45:53

18 weeks ago45:53

45:53

In the final weeks of each year, the Party convenes the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) – a gathering of China’s top economic policymakers – to hammer out the economic agenda for the year ahead. In this podcast, our last for 2024, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss what we learned from this year’s CEWC. We didn’t have high hopes for the readout from the CEWC. The summary typically gives away very little. But the document was a little meatier than usual this year. Andrew and Dinny discuss: How authorities will try to boost consumption Fiscal and monetary policy plans for the year ahead Their thoughts on the leaked GDP growth and budget deficit targets for 2025…

1
Ep 10 - Trivium Markets and Politics - China flexes its export control muscles, puts Nvidia in the hotseat 43:06

19 weeks ago43:06

43:06

China’s approach to economic retaliation against the US continues to evolve, with the past 10 days seeing a new round of critical mineral export controls and the launch of an anti-monopoly investigation into Nvidia. This week Trivium China Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by Trivium’s Head of Critical Minerals and Supply Chain Research Cory Combs to go through all the latest. The gents discuss: The details of China’s latest export controls on critical minerals China’s evolving approach to economic retaliation against the US Why we all should have seen this coming The most likely minerals next on China’s export control list China’s new long-arm jurisdiction approach to enforcement of export controls The anti-monopoly investigation into Nvidia – and the likely options moving forward One key takeaway: The timing of these most recent moves by China – as the Biden administration winds down and the Trump administration gears up – seems particularly canny. Biden can do little to respond. And Trump has no incentive to respond, at least not at this point. The upshot: China appears to be signaling to Trump that it is better prepared to fight back on the trade and tech war fronts this time around. So your move, Mr. Trump!…

1
Ep 9 - Trivium Markets - Previewing the Central Economic Work Conference and 2025 macro policy 42:04

20 weeks ago42:04

42:04

As the year draws to a close, it’s time for economic forecasts! In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, discuss what they expect from China’s economy in 2025. To do so, they dive into their expectations for the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), the annual year-end gathering of China’s top economic policymakers, expected to take place next week. The gents discuss their predictions for what the CEWC will decide regarding key policy settings for 2025, including: Interest rates The exchange rate Fiscal spending…

1
Ep 8 - Trivium Politics - Reacting to Trump and courting the Global South 41:27

21 weeks ago41:27

41:27

Xi Jinping had a busy week of diplomacy in South America, and in this episode of the Trivium China podcast we get into all of it. Trivium Co-founders Andrew Polk and Trey McArver discuss: Xi Jinping’s diplomacy in Latin America – and how that fits into China’s wider geopolitical strategy China’s courting of the Global South in an age of US protectionism The remarkably creative approach that Chinese officials seem to be prepping as a second US-China trade war looms What to watch as China's approach to the US unfolds in the years ahead…

The Trivium China Podcast

1
Ep 7 - Trivium Markets - The fiscal stimulus that wasn't 47:35

23 weeks ago47:35

47:35

On November 8, China finally unveiled its long-awaited fiscal stimulus package. It fell well short of expectations and raised plenty of new questions about how Beijing is dealing with the economy. In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of Markets Research, get together to discuss the ways in which the package disappointed them and what they think comes next. They delve into: What the package means for financial stability and local government austerity policies What additional fiscal support we can expect in the new year Why the package undershot expectations They also spend some time discussing Beijing's uninspired response to weak household spending, and whether authorities have misdiagnosed a structural problem as cyclical.…

The Trivium China Podcast

1
Ep 6 - Trivium Markets - China’s evolving approach to economic coercion 40:16

23 weeks ago40:16

40:16

In this week’s policy discussion, your friendly Trivium China team takes a step back to look at how China’s approach to economic coercion is evolving. Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk is joined by fellow Trivium Co-founder Trey McArver to examine how Chinese officials have steadily built up robust countersanctions and export control regimes to hit back against perceived US economic aggression. They start by looking at the latest restrictions on US drone maker Skydio under the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law and also discuss recent moves to: Undertake an Unreliable Entity List investigation into PVH Group, the US parent company of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, for complying with the US Uyghur Forced Labor Protection Act Potentially begin a cybersecurity review of Intel’s products in China Conduct a cybersecurity review of US chipmaker Micron’s products in China Bolster the wider export control regime The upshot: Chinese officials appear to be going on the offensive with their countersanctions and export control regimes. Andrew and Trey discuss what it all means for foreign companies in China, US-China relations under a second Trump administration, and the broader securitization of the global economy.…

The Trivium China Podcast

1
Ep 5 - Trivium Markets - Still waiting for stimulus and pondering the election 35:31

24 weeks ago35:31

35:31

After waiting over a month for a stimulus package from Beijing, we now know when to expect it – November 8, at the conclusion of a meeting by the legislature’s (NPC) standing committee. In this week’s podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of China Markets Research, discuss what’s likely to be in the stimulus package and where it might prove surprising. They also discuss how the upcoming US Presidential election factors into Beijing’s policy making, and whether it might influence the stimulus package.…

The Trivium China Podcast

1
Ep 4 - Trivium Markets - Q3 econ data breakdown 43:02

25 weeks ago43:02

43:02

The economic print for the third quarter of 2024 was pretty bad. But even among all the grey clouds, there were some silver linings in the numbers. In this podcast, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of China Markets Research, walk through the good and the bad of China’s most recent macro data. They then discuss a recent essay by Liu Yuanchun, China’s most influential economic advisor, about the rationale behind recent support measures, and why the support amounts to more than just stimulus. The gents also discuss: Why it’s taken Beijing so long to commit to providing stimulus What can we expect from monetary policy in the year ahead…

The Trivium China Podcast

1
Ep 3 - Trivium Markets - Stimulus disappointment 37:39

26 weeks ago37:39

37:39

It’s been a busy couple of weeks for China’s regulators. In quick succession there have been press conferences hosted by the economic planner (NDRC), Ministry of Finance (MoF), and housing ministry (MoHURD). Yet none of them have delivered what everyone’s waiting for: stimulus. Of course, as is always the case, the devils in the detail – and the regulators left out a lot of detail. In this episode, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of China Markets Research, discuss what was announced at the MoF and MoHURD press conferences. They then get into the potential shape of what the stimulus package will look like, and what they’re hoping for.…

The Trivium China Podcast

1
Ep 2 - Trivium Markets - The dog that didn't bark, fiscal stimulus edition 36:38

27 weeks ago36:38

36:38

The big story out of Beijing this week has been fiscal stimulus: it didn’t materialize on Tuesday at the economic planner’s (NDRC) press conference, and now all eyes are on the finance ministry’s (MoF) press conference on Saturday. In this episode, Trivium Co-founder Andrew Polk and Dinny McMahon, Head of China Markets Research, talk all things stimulus, covering: The likely timing of the much-anticipated fiscal stimulus How much might be rolled out And how it will be used Finally, they get into the constraints holding Beijing back from doing more.…

The Trivium China Podcast

1
Ep 1 - Trivium Markets - Monetary support and the promise of fiscal stimulus - Trivium China Podcast 44:03

29 weeks ago44:03