Ep. 46: Sichere Prognosen (Bruno Jahn Interview)

 
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Manage episode 243386973 series 1260429
By Atief Heermance, Robert de Neufville, Scott Eastman, Atief Heermance, Robert de Neufville, and Scott Eastman. Discovered by Player FM and our community — copyright is owned by the publisher, not Player FM, and audio is streamed directly from their servers. Hit the Subscribe button to track updates in Player FM, or paste the feed URL into other podcast apps.

Episode 45 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Robert and Scott interview superforecaster Bruno Jahn about his background in forecasting and about his forthcoming book, Sichere Prognosen in unsicheren Zeiten (Certain Forecasts in Uncertain Times). We talk with Bruno about how he got started with the Good Judgment Project (01:04), how to tell the difference between accuracy and luck in forecasting (10:00), whether expertise can get in the way of forecasting (23:20), his book on forecasting (31:00), how forecasting can be an antidote to fake news (43:19), the value of Twitter and online information sources (55:07), what superforecasters are like (1:01:18), whether we will see a "Jamaica coalition" in Germany (1:08:35), and the collapse of center-left parties in Europe (1:14:28). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 11/01/2017)

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