NonProphets is a weekly podcast about forecasting. The hosts became "superforecasters" based on the strength of their performances in the Good Judgment Project forecasting tournament, and they have continued to forecast on a wide array of topics with Good Judgment, Inc. In this podcast, they discuss their forecasting processes, and offer their analysis of questions on public forecasting platforms, such as the Good Judgment Open and Almanis, as well as other topics of interest to them. Most e ...
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Important events and the chance they happen. We'll discuss geopolitical events with concrete predictions. Each episode an expert will tell us their view of their subject with predictions about what will happen.
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Ege Erdil is in the top 5 cleverest people I know. He is a researcher at Epoch, an AI forecasting consultancy. When we disagree, I take it seriously.
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Josh Wilkes is someone I update towards on issues around China. He lived there for several years and has since done a masters degree in international relations at the National Sun Yat-Sen University in Taiwan.Predictions:- Xi Carries on in 2027 (75%)- Recession before 2025 (10%)- China significantly supports russia in Ukraine before 2025 (15%)- The…
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Scott Eastman is a Superforecaster who forecasts for the Swift Centre.
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#9: Peter Wildeford on the 2024 US Election
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Peter is a top forecaster - he won a Metaculus Quarterly Cup - he’s the Co-CEO of a 50 person research org and he’s reached triple master rank on Kaggle.Peter’s election forecasts are here: https://twitter.com/peterwildeford/status/1701694389570125895 A wider set of his forecasts are here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcgYF7Q0D95TPHLLSgw…
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#8: Garett Jones on Artificial Intelligence
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Garett Jones is an economist at George Mason University. He is author of 10% Less Democracy, which I can highly recommend for those who like policy mechanisms, as well as Hive Mind and The Culture Transplant. The probability tree from this interview: https://estimaker.app/_/nathanpmyoung/ai-jones
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Sam Freedman is a top substacker and a Senior Fellow at the Institute for Government. Sam and Lawrence Freedman write at https://samf.substack.com/ . It's one of the few UK politics sources I follow closely and I'd recommend it. The interactive graph we we made is here: https://estimaker.app/_/nathanpmyoung/uk-politics-freedman If you'd like me to …
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#6: Aditya Prasad on Artificial Intelligence
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Aditya Prasad is an AI researcher who has put his probabilities on paper. The interactive graph we we made is here: https://estimaker.app/_/nathanpmyoung/ai-prasad All the AI graphs we have done so far are here: https://estimaker.app/ai
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Doug is an former Obama advisor and CEO of Insight Prediction, a prediction market. Many of his predictions are things you can be on on Insight Prediction.The model we built today is here: https://estimaker.app/project/eBjmWWxFM3ZNInsight prediction - https://insightprediction.com/marketsIf you have problems gambling, please don't do it. Feel free …
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Katja Grace is a AI forecaster. She is well-calibrated and she's led surveys of AI professionals (most recently 2022) which were published basically everywhere. Though I'm a biased cos we're friends.She explains her AI model and why she has the breakpoints she does. You can see the model here: https://estimaker.app/_/nathanpmyoung...All the AI mode…
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A podcast about the chance of important events.Today we talk to Steven Godofsky about the war in Ukraine. Stephen knows a lot about the military and I enjoyed it.You can see the model we made here. https://estimaker.app/_/nathanpmyoung/ukraine-godofsky
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Rohit is a thoughtful commentator on AI. We discuss how he thinks about it All AI models so far: https://estimaker.app/aiRohit's AI model: https://estimaker.app/_/nathanpmyoung...Show notes: - The article he wrote (https://www.strangeloopcanon.com/p/agi-strange-equation)
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A podcast about the chance of important events. Superforecaster Scott Eastman discusses the chances of different outcomes in Ukraine.Scott's probability model: https://tinyurl.com/UkraineScottMy model after thinking afterwards: https://tinyurl.com/UkraineNathanArticle on taking land piece by piece: https://samf.substack.com/p/salami-slicing-boiled-…
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Episode 101 of NonProphets, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss developments in artificial intelligence with Atief's friend Nathan, a businessman and engineer who recently attended a hack-a-thon devoted to A.I. projects. As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 2/20/2023). (Intro: J…
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Episode 100 of NonProphets, in which Scott discusses his recent humanitarian/food tourist trip to Ukraine (00:17), before Atief's four-year-old daughter Beatrice decides to drop in at the end of the podcast (30:46). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 6/10/2022)…
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Ep. 99: James Bosworth on Latin American Politics
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In episode 99 of NonProphets, Scott and Robert interview superforecaster and Latin American politics expert James Bosworth. We talk with Boz about the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Latin America (2:35); authoritarian populism in Latin America (15:22); the impact of the pandemic on Latin America (19:16); the anti-incumbency wave in La…
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Ep. 98: Milo Jones on Intelligence Analysis
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In episode 98 of NonProphets, Scott and Robert interview Dr. Milo Jones, a Visiting Fellow at the Oxford Changing Character of War Programme as well as a Visiting Professor at the IE Business School in Madrid. He is also the author Constructing Cassandra: Reframing Intelligence Failure at the CIA, 1947-2001. We talk with Dr. Jones about the value o…
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Episode 97 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, Scott, and Dr. Balkan Devlen discuss the war in Ukraine, including their forecasts of the possibility of war (1:15), the possible mindset of Putin (4:18), the way Russia's relationship with China may shape the conflict (22:29), the "Animal Farm" approach to sovereignty (22:38), and the …
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In this episode Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss predictions for 2022. 0:24 Pantone failure 4:06 Is 2022 unpredictable? (thanks to the Superforecaster community for suggestions) 6:00 Will the pandemic fade? 12:20 Huntington’s Clash of Civilizations: How have we changed and what are the impacts of the shift? 16:45 The conflict in Ukraine 27:15 Turke…
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Forecasting the Pantone 2022 Color of the Year
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Episode 95 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott continue their annual tradition of forecasting the Pantone Color of the Year. They demonstrate their borderline peerless knowledge of fashion and design trends, as well as the "zeitgeist," before making their final predictions (38:34). As always, you can reach us at nonprophet…
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Episode 94 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss where Atief and his family should move (1:20). Over the course of the discussion, they consider political stability, climate change, and the value of faith in human ingenuity, which includes Atief misremembering the details but successfully recalling the broader points…
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Episode 93 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Robert and Scott interview fellow superforecaster Kjirste Morrell. Kjirste is a mechanical engineer and was interviewed for Adam Grant's recent bestseller Think Again. We discuss forecasting from an engineer's perspective (0:10); the value of comments on a forecasting question (4:30); what Kjirste mea…
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Ep. 92: Forecasts Inherently Have No Value
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Episode 92 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Scott and Robert interview John Bravender, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warning coordination meteorologist at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu. Scott and Robert talk to John about what they forecast at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (01:04); how they forecast…
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Episode 91 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about their experiences with the vaccine rollout and when they think things are likely to return to normal (01:40); the prospects for bipartisan legislation in US politics (37:06); and whether it depends on filibuster reform in the US Senate (44:45). As always, you can re…
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Ep. 90: Illuminating The Final Days
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Episode 90 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the final days of the Trump presidency and the aftermath of the attack on the Capitol. They take a victory lap for predicting one of the 2021 Pantone colors of the Year (1:35); look back to their 2016 forecasts for the Trump administration (Episode 16), and look forwar…
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Ep. 89: This Podcast About the Election Is Disputed
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Episode 89 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss US election results and forecast the 2021 Pantone color of the year. They talk about what happened in the US election (01:51); what will happen in the Senate special elections in Georgia (09:26); whether polls are any good (14:04); the paranoid style in American politi…
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Episode 88 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the election advertising that they've experienced (00:47), before diving into the upcoming US election (07:32), including discussing QAnon, the possibility of right- and left-wing violence, and the possible effects of the pandemic on the results (30:55). They close by …
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Episode 87 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the breaking news about Trump's tax returns (00:52) before debating the probability of a dramatic rise in right-wing violence (21:14), and the effects of Amy Coney Barrett on the Supreme Court in the context of Roe vs. Wade (47:42) and a possible return to the Lochner …
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Episode 86 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief (00:40), Robert (07:22), and Scott (11:29) catch up on what they've been up to over the last few months, and then discuss Camus and the effects of Covid-19 (17:38). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 7/18/2020)…
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Episode 85 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott interview Justin Crow, superforecaster and Director of the Division of Social Epidemiology for the Virginia Department of Health. We talk with Justin about social epidemiology and how it's relevant to understanding the Covid-19 pandemic (00:40); Liberty University's return to …
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Episode 84 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The podcast begins with an inside view of the Good Judgment / Open Philanthropy public site where forecasts and analysis of where the US and the world will be in one year are discussed. Atief's view from the heartland (Missouri) (4:50), S…
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Episode 83 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the Covid-19 virus from the perspectives of Scott in Romania (1:48), Robert in Hawaii (19:44), and Atief in Missouri (36:50). They close with two age-old questions: how many monkeys is this? (44:06); and, why wasn't Jared unleashed sooner? (50:57). As always, you can r…
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By Atief Heermance, Robert de Neufville, Scott Eastman
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Episode 81 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott continue their annual tradition of attempting to accurately predict the upcoming Pantone Color of the Year. As part of their conversation, they discuss the concept of a "genderless color" (3:31), the set of colors from which they suspect the selection will be chosen (23:58), w…
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Episode 80 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss a call from a NonProphets listener who used to help produce MemCons (record of the President's calls) in the Situation Room for the NSC. The listener reached out to us after Episode 78 with details about both what we and the media understand about Trump's conversation …
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Episode 79 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Tyson zones (1:00), A letter to Erdogan - Trump, the Kurds and nuclear weapons (2:29), Forecasting in the time of Trump - an exercise in Kremlinology? (27:10), Moscow Mitch and now Tulsi Gabbard? (30:14), Forecasting in a post-Trump world, (38:30), The indefinite Presi…
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Episode 78 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Trump impeachment odds. We talk about why an impeachment might make sense now (01:18); whether we have reached peak whataboutism (04:23); the potential outcomes of an impeachment inquiry; the chance that Trump is impeached by the House (11:44); the role of public opini…
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Episode 77 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss a request for listener input on the Pantone Color of the Year (2:59), Iran and Saudi Arabia (8:47), with a detour into Russian/Ukrainian cultural cynicism (18:06), and the Trump whistleblower scandal/contretemps/nothing burger (25:39). They close with a discussion of t…
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Episode 76 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about what they did over the summer (01:05); why they've been less enthusiastic about following politics lately (06:03); what they think about the Democratic primary debates so far (10:49); whether the Democrats should go low when Republicans go low (18:29); to what exten…
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Episode 75 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott interview David Epstein, author of the best-selling books Range and The Sports Gene. We talk to David about what it means to have range and how the 10,000 hour rule falls short (00:38); how to adapt to "wicked" learning environments (03:10); why "omnivorous generalists" are be…
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Episode 74 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the ethics of providing information, such as forecasts, to clients (00:45), why public information may be preferable to private when it comes to managing the risk of information misuse (13:12), and why it's so much simpler, from a moral perspective, to just paint house…
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Episode 73 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Robert and Scott interview UC Santa Cruz cosmologist and Metaculus co-founder Anthony Aguirre. We talk to Dr. Aguirre about why he founded Metaculus (01:10); forecasting the far future and catastrophic events (14:08); forecasting the development of AI (21:30); calibrating forecasts (29:25); catastroph…
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Episode 72 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott interview superforecaster and novelist Dan Mayland. Dan is the author of a series of spy novels set in and around Iran and the Greater Caspian region. We talk to Dan about how he got into writing novels (00:39); what will become of the Iran nuclear deal (08:56); how common con…
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Episode 71 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss managing the risks associated with emerging technologies (00:28), what's going on in Venezuela (28:05), whether the UK may require aid in the event of a hard Brexit (32:13), as well as the concepts of a "cheese submarine" (35:09) and a "glass cliff" (35:59). They close…
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Episode 70 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott forecast listener questions. We discuss who will win Chicago's mayoral election (01:18); whether it makes sense to buy a hybrid or electric car (11:56); and whether the US will pass its own version of the EU's GDPR data privacy law (19:09). We close out the episode by talking …
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Episode 69 of the NonProphets podcast, Atief, Robert, and Scott talk to Marc Koehler. Marc is the Vice President of Good Judgment Inc., in charge of government relations and co-head of analytics as well as an accomplished superforecaster. He was simultaneously the top forecaster on the internal Intelligence Community Prediction Market, the Good Jud…
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Episode 68 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott look back at their 2018 forecasts and forward to 2019 (2:23); the significance of US Secretary of Defense James Mattis' resignation for the US' relationship with its allies (8:57); iterated tit-for-tat games (18:00); the normalization of authoritarian politics (22:47); the US …
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Episode 67 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott perform their annual ritual of predicting the next Pantone color of the year (00:21), and then discuss their predictions for Time’s 2018 Person of the Year (20:07), both of which are now public. Overtaken by events! But, still fun. As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod…
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Episode 66 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss what happened in US midterm elections and what will happen next. We talk about why Claire McCaskill lost in Missouri (01:27); the Green New Deal and whether the Democrats should make Nancy Pelosi Speaker of the House again (13:27); voter suppression in the election (25…
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Episode 65 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Predictit (0:15); US midterm elections (7:39); why most conspiracy theories are false (23:04); how no one likes to be laughed at (27:46); the Missouri Senate race (33:02); the possibility of post-election violence (35:47); Trump's claim that he can effectively amend th…
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Episode 64 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss whether we should care about nukes (1:15), the difficulty of tackling big problems (4:02), The Invention of Peace, pseudo-events, cruelty, and what we care about (10:16), and national identity and immigration (16:05). They then discuss the midterms, including which iss…
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