Best Atief Heermance, Robert de Neufville, Scott Eastman Podcasts (2024)

1
A.I. - When D.A.N. met Sydney 48:07

1y ago48:07

48:07

Episode 101 of NonProphets, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss developments in artificial intelligence with Atief's friend Nathan, a businessman and engineer who recently attended a hack-a-thon devoted to A.I. projects. As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 2/20/2023). (Intro: J…

1
Ep. 100: Visits 32:59

2y ago32:59

32:59

Episode 100 of NonProphets, in which Scott discusses his recent humanitarian/food tourist trip to Ukraine (00:17), before Atief's four-year-old daughter Beatrice decides to drop in at the end of the podcast (30:46). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 6/10/2022)…

1
Ep. 99: James Bosworth on Latin American Politics 54:00

2y ago54:00

54:00

In episode 99 of NonProphets, Scott and Robert interview superforecaster and Latin American politics expert James Bosworth. We talk with Boz about the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Latin America (2:35); authoritarian populism in Latin America (15:22); the impact of the pandemic on Latin America (19:16); the anti-incumbency wave in La…

1
Ep. 98: Milo Jones on Intelligence Analysis 1:02:47

2y ago1:02:47

1:02:47

In episode 98 of NonProphets, Scott and Robert interview Dr. Milo Jones, a Visiting Fellow at the Oxford Changing Character of War Programme as well as a Visiting Professor at the IE Business School in Madrid. He is also the author Constructing Cassandra: Reframing Intelligence Failure at the CIA, 1947-2001. We talk with Dr. Jones about the value o…

1
Ep. 97: Ukraine 1:05:20

2y ago1:05:20

1:05:20

Episode 97 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, Scott, and Dr. Balkan Devlen discuss the war in Ukraine, including their forecasts of the possibility of war (1:15), the possible mindset of Putin (4:18), the way Russia's relationship with China may shape the conflict (22:29), the "Animal Farm" approach to sovereignty (22:38), and the …

1
Ep. 96: NonProphets 2022 Forecasts 1:03:26

2y ago1:03:26

1:03:26

In this episode Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss predictions for 2022. 0:24 Pantone failure 4:06 Is 2022 unpredictable? (thanks to the Superforecaster community for suggestions) 6:00 Will the pandemic fade? 12:20 Huntington’s Clash of Civilizations: How have we changed and what are the impacts of the shift? 16:45 The conflict in Ukraine 27:15 Turke…

1
Forecasting the Pantone 2022 Color of the Year 39:30

2+ y ago39:30

39:30

Episode 95 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott continue their annual tradition of forecasting the Pantone Color of the Year. They demonstrate their borderline peerless knowledge of fashion and design trends, as well as the "zeitgeist," before making their final predictions (38:34). As always, you can reach us at nonprophet…

1
Triumphant Return for Some Quick Advice 40:16

2+ y ago40:16

40:16

Episode 94 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss where Atief and his family should move (1:20). Over the course of the discussion, they consider political stability, climate change, and the value of faith in human ingenuity, which includes Atief misremembering the details but successfully recalling the broader points…

1
Ep. 93: Kjirste Morrell Interview 1:00:19

3y ago1:00:19

1:00:19

Episode 93 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Robert and Scott interview fellow superforecaster Kjirste Morrell. Kjirste is a mechanical engineer and was interviewed for Adam Grant's recent bestseller Think Again. We discuss forecasting from an engineer's perspective (0:10); the value of comments on a forecasting question (4:30); what Kjirste mea…

1
Ep. 92: Forecasts Inherently Have No Value 1:01:19

3y ago1:01:19

1:01:19

Episode 92 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Scott and Robert interview John Bravender, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warning coordination meteorologist at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu. Scott and Robert talk to John about what they forecast at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (01:04); how they forecast…

1
Ep. 91: Get the Damn Vaccine 52:31

3y ago52:31

52:31

Episode 91 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about their experiences with the vaccine rollout and when they think things are likely to return to normal (01:40); the prospects for bipartisan legislation in US politics (37:06); and whether it depends on filibuster reform in the US Senate (44:45). As always, you can re…

1
Ep. 90: Illuminating The Final Days 1:02:54

3+ y ago1:02:54

1:02:54

Episode 90 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the final days of the Trump presidency and the aftermath of the attack on the Capitol. They take a victory lap for predicting one of the 2021 Pantone colors of the Year (1:35); look back to their 2016 forecasts for the Trump administration (Episode 16), and look forwar…

1
Ep. 89: This Podcast About the Election Is Disputed 1:02:22

3+ y ago1:02:22

1:02:22

Episode 89 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss US election results and forecast the 2021 Pantone color of the year. They talk about what happened in the US election (01:51); what will happen in the Senate special elections in Georgia (09:26); whether polls are any good (14:04); the paranoid style in American politi…

1
Ep. 88: The Election 56:30

3+ y ago56:30

56:30

Episode 88 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the election advertising that they've experienced (00:47), before diving into the upcoming US election (07:32), including discussing QAnon, the possibility of right- and left-wing violence, and the possible effects of the pandemic on the results (30:55). They close by …

1
Ep. 87: Old Is New Again 1:05:59

3+ y ago1:05:59

1:05:59

Episode 87 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the breaking news about Trump's tax returns (00:52) before debating the probability of a dramatic rise in right-wing violence (21:14), and the effects of Amy Coney Barrett on the Supreme Court in the context of Roe vs. Wade (47:42) and a possible return to the Lochner …

1
Ep. 86: Doing the Wrong Thing 1:05:33

3+ y ago1:05:33

1:05:33

Episode 86 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief (00:40), Robert (07:22), and Scott (11:29) catch up on what they've been up to over the last few months, and then discuss Camus and the effects of Covid-19 (17:38). As always, you may reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com, or nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 7/18/2020)…

1
Ep. 85: Justin Crow Interview: Superforecaster and Social Epidemiologist

4y ago

—

Episode 85 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott interview Justin Crow, superforecaster and Director of the Division of Social Epidemiology for the Virginia Department of Health. We talk with Justin about social epidemiology and how it's relevant to understanding the Covid-19 pandemic (00:40); Liberty University's return to …

1
Ep. 84: Third Times The Plague

4y ago

—

Episode 84 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The podcast begins with an inside view of the Good Judgment / Open Philanthropy public site where forecasts and analysis of where the US and the world will be in one year are discussed. Atief's view from the heartland (Missouri) (4:50), S…

1
Ep. 83: The Chips are Down

4y ago

—

Episode 83 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the Covid-19 virus from the perspectives of Scott in Romania (1:48), Robert in Hawaii (19:44), and Atief in Missouri (36:50). They close with two age-old questions: how many monkeys is this? (44:06); and, why wasn't Jared unleashed sooner? (50:57). As always, you can r…

1
Ep. 82: American Democracy Under Siege (Michael Signer Interview)

4y ago

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By Atief Heermance, Robert de Neufville, Scott Eastman

1
Ep. 81: Pantone 2020 Color of the Year

4+ y ago

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Episode 81 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott continue their annual tradition of attempting to accurately predict the upcoming Pantone Color of the Year. As part of their conversation, they discuss the concept of a "genderless color" (3:31), the set of colors from which they suspect the selection will be chosen (23:58), w…

1
Ep. 80: Zelensky MemCon

4+ y ago

—

Episode 80 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss a call from a NonProphets listener who used to help produce MemCons (record of the President's calls) in the Situation Room for the NSC. The listener reached out to us after Episode 78 with details about both what we and the media understand about Trump's conversation …

1
Ep. 79: A Letter to Erdogan

4+ y ago

—

Episode 79 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Tyson zones (1:00), A letter to Erdogan - Trump, the Kurds and nuclear weapons (2:29), Forecasting in the time of Trump - an exercise in Kremlinology? (27:10), Moscow Mitch and now Tulsi Gabbard? (30:14), Forecasting in a post-Trump world, (38:30), The indefinite Presi…

1
Ep. 78: DTMFA

4+ y ago

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Episode 78 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Trump impeachment odds. We talk about why an impeachment might make sense now (01:18); whether we have reached peak whataboutism (04:23); the potential outcomes of an impeachment inquiry; the chance that Trump is impeached by the House (11:44); the role of public opini…

1
Ep. 77: Implications

4+ y ago

—

Episode 77 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss a request for listener input on the Pantone Color of the Year (2:59), Iran and Saudi Arabia (8:47), with a detour into Russian/Ukrainian cultural cynicism (18:06), and the Trump whistleblower scandal/contretemps/nothing burger (25:39). They close with a discussion of t…

1
Ep. 76: War Cry

4+ y ago

—

Episode 76 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about what they did over the summer (01:05); why they've been less enthusiastic about following politics lately (06:03); what they think about the Democratic primary debates so far (10:49); whether the Democrats should go low when Republicans go low (18:29); to what exten…

1
Ep. 75: Range (David Epstein Interview)

4+ y ago

—

Episode 75 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott interview David Epstein, author of the best-selling books Range and The Sports Gene. We talk to David about what it means to have range and how the 10,000 hour rule falls short (00:38); how to adapt to "wicked" learning environments (03:10); why "omnivorous generalists" are be…

1
Ep. 74: Somethingtopia

5y ago

—

Episode 74 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss the ethics of providing information, such as forecasts, to clients (00:45), why public information may be preferable to private when it comes to managing the risk of information misuse (13:12), and why it's so much simpler, from a moral perspective, to just paint house…

1
Ep. 73: Metaculus (Anthony Aguirre Interview)

5y ago

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Episode 73 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Robert and Scott interview UC Santa Cruz cosmologist and Metaculus co-founder Anthony Aguirre. We talk to Dr. Aguirre about why he founded Metaculus (01:10); forecasting the far future and catastrophic events (14:08); forecasting the development of AI (21:30); calibrating forecasts (29:25); catastroph…

1
Ep. 72: The Superforecaster's Novels (Dan Mayland Interview)

5y ago

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Episode 72 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott interview superforecaster and novelist Dan Mayland. Dan is the author of a series of spy novels set in and around Iran and the Greater Caspian region. We talk to Dan about how he got into writing novels (00:39); what will become of the Iran nuclear deal (08:56); how common con…

1
Ep. 71: Risk Managment

5y ago

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Episode 71 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss managing the risks associated with emerging technologies (00:28), what's going on in Venezuela (28:05), whether the UK may require aid in the event of a hard Brexit (32:13), as well as the concepts of a "cheese submarine" (35:09) and a "glass cliff" (35:59). They close…

1
Ep. 70: Mailbag (Chicago Elections, Hybrid Cars, Data Privacy)

5y ago

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Episode 70 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott forecast listener questions. We discuss who will win Chicago's mayoral election (01:18); whether it makes sense to buy a hybrid or electric car (11:56); and whether the US will pass its own version of the EU's GDPR data privacy law (19:09). We close out the episode by talking …

1
Ep. 69: Marc Koehler interview

5+ y ago

—

Episode 69 of the NonProphets podcast, Atief, Robert, and Scott talk to Marc Koehler. Marc is the Vice President of Good Judgment Inc., in charge of government relations and co-head of analytics as well as an accomplished superforecaster. He was simultaneously the top forecaster on the internal Intelligence Community Prediction Market, the Good Jud…

1
Ep. 68: Nothing Else Mattis

5+ y ago

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Episode 68 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott look back at their 2018 forecasts and forward to 2019 (2:23); the significance of US Secretary of Defense James Mattis' resignation for the US' relationship with its allies (8:57); iterated tit-for-tat games (18:00); the normalization of authoritarian politics (22:47); the US …

1
Ep. 67: Overtaken by Events: Holiday Edition!

5+ y ago

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Episode 67 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott perform their annual ritual of predicting the next Pantone color of the year (00:21), and then discuss their predictions for Time’s 2018 Person of the Year (20:07), both of which are now public. Overtaken by events! But, still fun. As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod…

1
Ep. 66: The Next Two Years

5+ y ago

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Episode 66 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss what happened in US midterm elections and what will happen next. We talk about why Claire McCaskill lost in Missouri (01:27); the Green New Deal and whether the Democrats should make Nancy Pelosi Speaker of the House again (13:27); voter suppression in the election (25…

1
Ep. 65 Midterm Elections and the Day After

5+ y ago

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Episode 65 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Predictit (0:15); US midterm elections (7:39); why most conspiracy theories are false (23:04); how no one likes to be laughed at (27:46); the Missouri Senate race (33:02); the possibility of post-election violence (35:47); Trump's claim that he can effectively amend th…

1
Ep. 64: Things Could Change

5+ y ago

—

Episode 64 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss whether we should care about nukes (1:15), the difficulty of tackling big problems (4:02), The Invention of Peace, pseudo-events, cruelty, and what we care about (10:16), and national identity and immigration (16:05). They then discuss the midterms, including which iss…

1
Ep. 63: Will Kavanaugh Be Confirmed?

5+ y ago

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Episode 63 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court in light of allegations that he tried to rape a fifteen-year-old girl when he was in high school. We talk about the PredictIt market for how many votes Kavanaugh will get in the Senate by October 31 (00:20); the nature …

1
Ep. 62: Scared Money

5+ y ago

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Episode 62 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief and Robert, with Scott away, talk about a PredictIt deal for users, as well as a frankly fantastic contest the podcast is having for our listeners (00:10). We then discuss the upcoming midterms, including data sources that we find probative (9:12), and the median voter theory, Missouri and Hawai…

1
Ep. 61: Space Force and Star Child

5+ y ago

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Episode 61 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about what they were up to all summer while they weren't podcasting. They discuss the anti-terrorism conference sponsored by Iran that Scott attended (00:58); the politicization of the administrative state (07:01); the use of pretexts in political debates (09:43); how Rob…

1
Ep. 60: Odds and Ends

6y ago

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Episode 60 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott catch up on what they've been up to, including Atief following the Supreme Court's upcoming Lucia vs. SEC decision (00:55), Robert attending the Hawaii state Democratic convention (16:34), a discussion of being a new parent in the context of national politics (29:47), includin…

1
Ep. 59: PredictIt (Will Jennings Interview)

6y ago

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Episode 59 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk to Will Jennings, head of public engagement at the political prediction market PredictIt. Will previously worked in the Obama White House and for the vice presidential campaign of Senator Tim Kaine. We talk with Will about what PredictIt is and how it works (00:45); how p…

1
Ep. 58: The Fourth Age (Byron Reese Interview)

6y ago

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Episode 58 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk to Byron Reese about his new book, The Fourth Age: Smart Robots, Conscious Computers, and the Future of Humanity. We talk what motivated the book (00:33); what "the Fourth Age" is (02:00); the role of ideas and culture in history (07:35); whether automation will cause tec…

1
Ep. 57: Everything's on the Table (Scenarios!)

6y ago

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Episode 57 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott probe the limits of their new political reality with a thought experiment that they called "Everything's on the Table" (aka "Plausible/Implausible"). After discussing the rules of the game (01:01), they discussed the possibility of an announcement about Korean reunification (4…

1
Ep. 56: Straight Outta Chumptown

6y ago

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Episode 56 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss "the backfire effect"—the fact that people sometimes seem to hold ideas even more firmly after being confronted with evidence they are wrong. We talk about Andrew Gelman's skepticism of the recent New England Journal of Medicine finding that firearm injuries in the US …

1
Ep. 55 Calculations

6y ago

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Episode 55 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss their Predictit account, including the class of questions on which they have been losing money (1:04), as well as how they approach gaining probative information out of Trump administration pronouncements (12:00). They then discuss Russia, including propaganda and assa…

1
Ep. 54: Guns, Norms, and Democracy

6y ago

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Episode 54 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about the impact of the Parkland shooting on US politics (01:45); the rapidly shifting Republican orthodoxy (14:32); whether democratic norms are weakening (24:51); Transparency International's 2017 Corruption Index (40:33); whether there will be any material change in US…

1
Ep. 53: Toward the Year 2068

6y ago

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Episode 53 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott talk about a 1968 collection of essays speculating what 2018 would be like called Toward the Year 2018. We talk about whether it's really possible to predict the future fifty years out (00:19); the difficulty of forecasting changing norms and tastes (05:12); what the book got …

1
Ep. 52: Kathryn Cochran on Designing Good Forecasting Questions

6y ago

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Episode 52 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief and Robert interview Good Judgment Chief Scientist Kathryn Cochran, who leads Good Judgment's question development team, about the nuts and bolts of forecasting. We talk about how forecasts can improve adaptability (09:41); how we would craft clear, meaningful forecasting questions for a hypothe…

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Atief Heermance, Robert De Neufville, Scott Eastman Podcasts

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