Ep. 56: Straight Outta Chumptown


Manage episode 243386963 series 1260429
By Atief Heermance, Robert de Neufville, Scott Eastman, Atief Heermance, Robert de Neufville, and Scott Eastman. Discovered by Player FM and our community — copyright is owned by the publisher, not Player FM, and audio is streamed directly from their servers. Hit the Subscribe button to track updates in Player FM, or paste the feed URL into other podcast apps.

Episode 56 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss "the backfire effect"—the fact that people sometimes seem to hold ideas even more firmly after being confronted with evidence they are wrong. We talk about Andrew Gelman's skepticism of the recent New England Journal of Medicine finding that firearm injuries in the US drop 20% while NRA members are attending national meetings (00:50); how skeptical we should be of research that seem to confirm our preconceptions (04:14); whether evidence can change people's minds (15:27); "The Debunking Handbook" techniques for correcting false ideas (18:48); research into how much contrary information it takes to change people's minds (23:21); whether culture or economics determines election results (29:11); how we avoid bias in forecasting and decision-making (31:25); and how we can stay out of Chumptown (39:20). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 4/4/2018)

162 episodes