Goldman Sachs expects ‘all time high’ oil demand to spur large deficits, boosting prices https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/24/goldman-sachs-expects-all-time-high-oil-demand-will-boost-prices.html - expect demand to rise by 2 million bpd from India and China - Is this coming from OPEC via China? - IEA says global demand will increase by 2.4 million bpd -…

Oil slides more than 1% as Chinese GDP dents demand hopes https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-slips-after-libya-resumes-output-china-data-eyed-2023-07-17 - GDP grew 6.3% year-on-year in the 2nd quarter, compared with analyst forecasts of 7.3% - what analysts were forecasting such high growth? - slow correction where expectations come back d…

Biofuels are displacing petroleum-based distillate fuel oil consumption on the West Coasthttps://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=57040 - renewable diesel = diesel made from - biodiesel used as well - petroleum distillate consumption down on west coast in 2022 but biodiesel consumption up - unique to west coast NATIONAL AVERAGE SEES LITTLE C…

Oil falls amid China growth uncertainties https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-come-off-earlier-gains-banks-cut-china-growth-forecasts-2023-06-19/ - the issue is headwinds, but is China's economy really that bad - the real issue is that expectations for China's great economic reopening haven't materialized. - China's demand growth was…

Commodities Slide as Investors Bet on Economic Slowdown https://www.wsj.com/articles/commodities-slide-as-investors-bet-on-economic-slowdown-233a6d3 - if prices trend down to the $60s or $50s by October then Shale producers might curb production plans Saudi Arabia Springs 1 Million b/d Cut in Opec Megadeal https://www.energyintel.com/00000188-857f-…

Ford to charge up EV drive with flurry of battery deals https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ford-announce-new-battery-material-deals-investor-event-2023-05-22/ - doubts about Ford's ability to actually hit their EV production targets - But do people even WANT to buy F-150? - Ford says its electric vehicle unit is on track to lose …

Big Oil Has $150 Billion in Cash and Investors Want a Share https://www.wsj.com/articles/big-oil-has-150-billion-in-cash-and-investors-want-a-share-b5cdea35 - oil companies sitting on cash now, but they may need that cash for when prices are lower - should they return all this cash to shareholders now or keep it to pay out in dividends throughout t…

China’s mixed economic data fuels concerns about recovery https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/05/01/business/china-economic-recovery-concerns/# - Is this something that China can deal with domestically? Or is it the fault of the global economy which isn't ordering as much stuff from China? - China's consumer demand is doing ok, but the industria…

Biden admin preparing major crackdown on power plants that fuel nation's grid https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-admin-preparing-major-crackdown-power-plants-fuel-nations-grid - EPA planning to issue regulation that would limit emissions from fossil fuel power plants. Basically would require plants to shut down or install costly carbon capture …

Russia forecasts stable oil output to 2025, to set up stockpiles https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-forecasts-stable-oil-output-2025-set-up-stockpiles-2023-04-17/ - Russia wants to build their stockpiles. Are they taking 500,000bpd off the market and putting it in storage or are they going to cut production in order to keep that oil in …

OPEC+ announces surprise oil output cuts https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/sarabia-other-opec-producers-announce-voluntary-oil-output-cuts-2023-04-02/ - Does OPEC think that China's oil demand isn't coming back strong? - Russia retaliating against price cap from West - Want to defend $80 or higher oil - Could it be about speculation? Speculat…

Saudi Arabia and U.A.E. Clash Over Oil, Yemen as Rift Grows https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-and-u-a-e-clash-over-oil-yemen-as-rift-grows-ff286ff9 - "Once close friends, the two biggest Arab economies are increasingly competing for money and power" - Will the UAE leave OPEC? - Doubtful because UAE benefits more by staying in OPEC - They li…

Russia to cut oil output by 500,000 bpd in March https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-cut-oil-output-by-500000-bpd-march-2023-02-10/ -"As of today, we are fully selling the entire volume of oil produced, however, as stated earlier, we will not sell oil to those who directly or indirectly adhere to the principles of the 'price cap'," Novak…

No OPEC ministerial meeting, but the Saudi oil minister gets his 2-cents in Saudi energy minister cautious on oil production, warns on investment outlook and geopoliticshttps://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/020423-saudi-energy-minister-cautious-on-oil-production-warns-on-investment-outlook-and-geopolitics- AB…

Worst London air pollution in six years as home fires burnhttps://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/27/worst-london-air-pollution-in-six-years-as-home-fires-burn - wood is a really dirty burning fuel - its expensive to pay for heating, people turning to fires, but this is actually a really high emission fuel Natural Gas Shortages Hit China a…

Russian oil trade remains in ship-shape as the EU price cap has failed to stem Moscow's freight and insurance income, analyst sayshttps://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russian-oil-india-china-not-cheap-shipping-fees-kpler-analyst-2023-1 - "Debunking number one, no one really knows the price of Russian oil" - Urals blend may be priced…

China’s corn-based ethanol fuel threatens food security while crowding the market, state commentary warns https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3207013/chinas-corn-based-ethanol-fuel-threatens-food-security-while-crowding-market-state-commentary-warns#Echobox=1673879264 - China can't feed its own people, and they are using corn for fue…

Oil rises on demand optimism as China borders reopen https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-nudges-higher-after-china-opens-borders-lifts-fuel-demand-outlook-2023-01-09/ - we are seeing back and forth with whether CHina's demand is going to surge or not - Saudi Arabia cuts its OSP to Asia - indicates they think that demand in China is soft - C…

Subscribe to the newsletter WTI higher or lower than $73, Brent higher or lower than $77? Ellen-Higher Ryan-says Lower (but really thinks higher) Biden adviser calls investor refusal to ramp up shale drilling ‘un-American’ https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3771025-biden-adviser-calls-investor-refusal-to-ramp-up-shale-drilling-un-america…

Subscribe to the newsletter Oil prices rose as much as 2% on hopes of China’s reopening and as OPEC+ maintains output cut targetshttps://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/05/oil-prices-rise-as-much-as-2percent-on-signs-of-china-covid-easing.html - OPEC decided production quotas from Oct 5 continued through end of 2023, next meeting June 4, 2023 - Meetings of JM…

Subscribe to the newsletter Biden gives Chevron permit to restart Venezuelan oil saleshttps://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/26/biden-chevron-permit-venezuelan-oil-sales-00070836 Chevron can resume key role in Venezuela's oil output, exportshttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-issues-expanded-license-allow-chevron-import-venezuelan-petroleum-2…

Frackers Say Oil Production Slowing in the Shale Patch https://www.wsj.com/articles/frackers-say-oil-production-slowing-in-the-shale-patch-11667743226 - problem is that frackers are drilling in gassier areas - will likely get more production in 2023 because of rejiggering where they drill, etc. - WSJ very different interpretation of info from what …

Subscribe to newsletter Fossil fuel producers flex their muscle at UN climate summit https://www.ft.com/content/a29c1204-70cf-46c1-b266-780788bfa048 - Fossil fuel companies invited to COP27 for the first time - Are they hijacking the conference with their money? - Definitely seem to be hijacking the headlines - Does it mean that the climate camp is…

Never miss an episode by subscribing to the newsletter China’s Xi Jinping to Visit Saudi Arabia Amid Global Reshufflinghttps://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-xi-jinping-to-visit-saudi-arabia-amid-global-reshuffling-11667818979Chinese-Saudi relationship is developing beyond oil. Not sure exactly where that will come. Perhaps tourism? It's not an attemp…

US backs Opec calls for more oil, gas investment https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2385879-us-backs-opec-calls-for-more-oil-gas-investment- The US' top energy envoy Amos Hochstein today supported calls for investment in oil and gas to increase globally alongside spending on the transition to a lower-carbon energy system. - Say one thing in one env…

Congress eyes cutting off foreign markets from US strategic reserve oil https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/restoring-america/courage-strength-optimism/congress-eyes-cut-off-foreign-markets-us-strategic-reserve - this could be problematic because US refineries can't handle all the light, sweet oil in the SPR so there would be a lot of oil unpurchase…

OPEC+ to Weigh Production Cut to Bolster Oil Prices https://www.wsj.com/articles/opec-to-weigh-production-cut-to-bolster-oil-prices-11664734482 - oil prices are inflated due to inflation so $80/barrel oil is perhaps more like $70/barrerl oil or even $60/barrel oil. - could this cut put prices back up to $90 or $100/barrel - How much more can prices…

Private Oil Drillers Are Hitting Their Limits https://www.wsj.com/articles/private-drillers-are-hitting-their-limits-11663579982 - "they tapped many of their best drilling spots, and will have to ease their rapid pace of drilling as their inventory shrinks" - US oil production could decrease by "hundreds of thousands of barrels per day" - that's no…

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.comBy Ryan Ray

In a US first, California will pilot solar-panel canopies over canals https://electrek.co/2022/08/26/in-a-us-first-california-will-pilot-solar-panel-canopies-over-canals/ - is this idea well thought through? WHat would the impact to the water be? chemical runoff? Algae growing? Earthquakes!!? - If all 4,000 miles of California’s canals were covered…

Oil Sinks to Six-Month Low on China Outlook, Iran Supply Boost https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-extends-losses-traders-weigh-225340219.html China’s Economy Slows Unexpectedly as Covid and Property Woes Mount https://www.barrons.com/articles/chinas-economy-slows-covid-property-51660559065 China's Covid and economic policy: - were they using covid …

Gasoline Demand Dip That Spooked Market Sparks Furor Over US Data https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gasoline-demand-dip-spooked-market-205412111.html - issues with the data made it look like gasoline demand was below summer 2020 levels - difference between wholesale gasoline supplied and retail demand. - check out Rory Johnston's report on this (https…

Ellen's thoughts on Biden's visit to Saudi Arabia: Whether this message is understood by the Biden administration is unclear given the fact that Amos Hochstein's statement after the summit was that he was confident that "there will be a few more steps in the coming weeks from OPEC in terms of oil supplies." The only thing the market should expect f…

Biden’s Middle East Trip Is a High-Risk Bid to Reset Saudi Relations https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-middle-east-trip-is-a-high-risk-bid-to-reset-saudi-relations-11657481150 - will he ask for more oil? no indication more Saudi oil would even bring down prices Oil From U.S. Reserves Sent Overseas as Gasoline Prices Stay High https://www.reuters.…

Pledging new sanctions, G7 to stand with Ukraine 'for as long as it takes' https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/g7-hike-sanctions-russia-close-oil-price-cap-deal-us-official-2022-06-27/ - What can G7 nations do to Russia at this point? - Recession could send prices down and that might hurt Russia - How can the plan to put a price cap on Russian …

Drilling vs returns. U.S. oil producers' tradeoff as windfall tax threatens https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/drilling-vs-returns-us-oil-producers-tradeoff-windfall-tax-threatens-2022-06-13/?taid=62a72ca5802cad0001f87694 - will the US pass a windfall tax? - lockdowns have helped created this situation - market responds to incentives. interfer…

U.S. to let Eni, Repsol ship Venezuela oil to Europe for debt https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-us-let-eni-repsol-ship-venezuela-oil-europe-debt-sources-2022-06-05/ - will this even help Europe that much because VZ doesn't make that much oil? - is this a prelude to more relaxing of sanctions? Biden invokes Defense Production Act to …

White House LNG Task Force Compared to Secretive Cheney Oil Group https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/white-house-lng-task-force-compared-to-secretive-cheney-oil-group - criticized for lack of transparency HSBC suspends banker over climate change comments https://www.ft.com/content/8e1a16ea-bf63-45f8-81af-dc41c0df4e06 Energy crunch causing E…

Oil giant Aramco reports record first quarter as oil prices soar https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/15/aramco-worlds-largest-company-reports-record-first-quarter-as-oil-prices-soar.html - Aramco not doing share buybacks like other oil companies. Awarding 1 share for every 10 - increasing capacity to 13 million bpd by 2026/2027 but will they ever produce …

China's Imports From Russia Hit Record on Energy Price Rises https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/chinas-imports-from-russia-hit-record-on-energy-price-rises - China IS importing more oil from Russia despite the Chinese lockdowns and news that a major Chinese oil company claims they don't plan to increase imports from Russia India Buyers Grab…

Russia is pumping nearly 10% less oil than before it invaded Ukraine, satellite imagery suggests https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-pumping-less-oil-since-ukraine-war-began-satellite-data-2022-4 - Russian oil production - China planning to cut refinery runs significantly due to lower demand (lockdowns) - could this bring global prices down? - W…

Scoop: Biden advisers weigh Saudi Arabia trip for more oil https://www.axios.com/biden-saudi-trip-oil-b7a91070-8045-4155-9120-a35d59fd7603.html - Is there any chance that Saudi Arabia will go for this? - Saudi Arabia isn't likely to blow up the OPEC+ deal for Biden U.S. Officials Meet With Regime in Venezuela, to Discuss Oil Exports to Replace Russ…

EU energy ministers to discuss plans for supply shocks from Ukraine crisis https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eu-energy-ministers-discuss-plans-supply-shocks-ukraine-crisis-2022-02-27/ Finnish refiner Neste swaps Russian crude for North Sea oil https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-neste/finnish-refiner-neste-swaps-russian-crude-for-n…

Russia/Ukraine - will Russia invade? - What does Russia want? Expansion = national security - Will Ukraine allow Eastern Ukraine to separate? Crude oil futures slip after opening surge as risk appetite wanes https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/petrochemicals/022122-crude-oil-futures-slip-after-opening-surge-as-risk-appeti…

Russia, China ink new energy deals amid rising Ukraine tensions https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/020422-russia-china-ink-new-energy-deals-amid-rising-ukraine-tensions - Russia is already looking more towards the East - Is this a diversion of the current or in addition too? - Russia not all that concerned about find…

Court blocks latest GoM offshore lease sale, wants more greenhouse gas calculations https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/government/article/14232851/court-blocks-latest-gom-offshore-lease-sale-wants-more-greenhouse-gas-calculations - must run additional calculations on emissions contribution to global climate change - “failed to include a calculati…

Saudi Arabia expands share in China oil market, Russia lags https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/saudi-arabia-expands-share-china-oil-market-russia-lags-2022-01-20/ Oil could jump to $150 a barrel this quarter on the back of an 'adverse supply shock' from Russia-Ukraine tensions, JPMorgan says https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/…

Two Anne Arundel power plants announce plans to transition from coal to oil, get green light from Maryland Public Service Commission https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/environment/bs-md-brand-shores-ha-wagner-coal-to-oil-psc-approval-20220113-zdwx3gcwjvbtzjn3blqdhyqux4-story.html - what benefit will switching from coal to oil provide? power plant sa…

How Institutional Investors See the Future of Oil and Gas https://www.bcg.com/publications/2022/how-investors-see-future-of-oil-gas - 70% of institutional investors think oil prices will stay above $60 per barrel through 2024 - Want more clarity on firms' energy transition plans - Nearly 2/3 of institutional investors believe peak oil demand will h…

US shale producers face spending hikes https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2284916-us-shale-producers-face-spending-hikes - some mixed messaging in terms of costs of production. some are saying that improvements in efficiency offset increasing costs - DUCs being finished means that costs are going up, also salaries and cost of material - public comp…