This Is How Derivatives Trading Swallowed the Entire Market

Odd Lots

#Finance #Business Disciplines #Trading #Bloomberg #Business News #News #Business #News Talk

26:18

How do you know when it’s time to make your next big career move? With International Women’s Day around the corner, we are excited to feature Avni Patel Thompson, Founder and CEO of Milo. Avni is building technology that directly supports the often overlooked emotional and logistical labor that falls on parents—especially women. Milo is an AI assistant designed to help families manage that invisible load more efficiently. In this episode, Avni shares her journey from studying chemistry to holding leadership roles at global brands like Adidas and Starbucks, to launching her own ventures. She discusses how she approaches career transitions, the importance of unpleasant experiences, and why she’s focused on making everyday life easier for parents. [01:26] Avni's University Days and Early Career [04:36] Non-Linear Career Paths [05:16] Pursuing Steep Learning Curves [11:51] Entrepreneurship and Safety Nets [15:22] Lived Experiences and Milo [19:55] Avni’s In Her Ellement Moment [20:03] Reflections Links: Avni Patel Thompson on LinkedIn Suchi Srinivasan on LinkedIn Kamila Rakhimova on LinkedIn Ipsos report on the future of parenting About In Her Ellement: In Her Ellement highlights the women and allies leading the charge in digital, business, and technology innovation. Through engaging conversations, the podcast explores their journeys—celebrating successes and acknowledging the balance between work and family. Most importantly, it asks: when was the moment you realized you hadn’t just arrived—you were truly in your element? About The Hosts: Suchi Srinivasan is an expert in AI and digital transformation. Originally from India, her career includes roles at trailblazing organizations like Bell Labs and Microsoft. In 2011, she co-founded the Cleanweb Hackathon, a global initiative driving IT-powered climate solutions with over 10,000 members across 25+ countries. She also advises Women in Cloud, aiming to create $1B in economic opportunities for women entrepreneurs by 2030. Kamila Rakhimova is a fintech leader whose journey took her from Tajikistan to the U.S., where she built a career on her own terms. Leveraging her English proficiency and international relations expertise, she discovered the power of microfinance and moved to the U.S., eventually leading Amazon's Alexa Fund to support underrepresented founders. Subscribe to In Her Ellement on your podcast app of choice to hear meaningful conversations with women in digital, business, and technology.…

about a year ago 50:41

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For a long time, the world of derivatives trading was a niche thing, largely occupied by professional investors who used them for hedging purposes. During the pandemic and the Robinhood boom, the retail masses started discovering them, and activity exploded. Since then, the use of options, swaps and other levered positions has grown among both individual traders and the big professionals on Wall Street. There are countless influencers on social media promising "guaranteed" returns from various options selling strategies. New ETFs have been launched that embed derivatives inside them. And institutions which might historically have employed simple, sleepy investments, are now making them part of their core mix. So how did this happen, and what effect is it having on the market? On this episode, we speak with Benn Eifert, partner at QVR Advisors, about the evolution of this world, why you should not get your trading advice from Instagram, and how this trend has reshaped the entire market.

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948 episodes

Odd Lots

This Is How Derivatives Trading Swallowed the Entire Market

Odd Lots

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published about a year ago

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948 episodes

#Finance #Business Disciplines #Trading #Bloomberg #Business News #News #Business #News Talk

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Odd Lots

1
The Last Time Investors Really Got Excited For Tech Infrastructure 27:39

4 hours ago27:39

27:39

One of the biggest questions hanging over the market right now is whether or not the seemingly unlimited appetite for more AI data center spending is slowing down or not. This type of tech infrastructure has been a massive sectoral winner over the last few years. But of course, this isn't the first time investors have gotten excited about this type of trade. The late 1990s and early 2000s are often remembered as being the time of a "tech bubble" or "dot-com bubble," but one specific aspect was the buildout in broadband infrastructure, or what became known as the telecom bubble. So what was that all about? Why were investors so optimistic? And how did it end? At our recent live episode in Washington DC, we spoke with Blair Levin, policy adviser to New Street Research. He was the chief of staff at the FCC during the telecom deregulation of the 1990s, and in the early 2000s went to work on Wall Street. He tells us about differences and similarities between then and now, plus the signs of when the ride is coming to an end. Read More: What It Felt Like When Everyone Was Hopeful, Happy, and Rich Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Odd Lots

1
Why Brad Jacobs Is Spending $11 Billion on a Roofing Supply Business 39:16

1 day ago39:16

39:16

Brad Jacobs has made a fortune in his career buying and building big logistics companies, like United Rentals, Waste Management, XPO (trucking company), GXO (warehouses), and RXO (freight brokerage). His current venture is QXO, which raised billions of dollars in order to enter the building supply industry. After a long search and a couple months of battling with the executive team, QXO announced last week that it would be acquiring publicly traded roofing supply company Beacon Roofing for $11 billion. So why expand into roofing supply? And why Beacon specifically? We sat down with Brad to talk about the roofing industry, his vision for improving the company, what other opportunities are out there, and what he's seeing in the general economy right now. Read more: QXO Agrees to Acquire Beacon Roofing Supply in $11 Billion Deal Affordable Housing Developers Stalled by Blocked Federal Funds Only http://Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Odd Lots

1
Jim Millstein on the Massive Risks of Any 'Mar-a-Lago Accord' 58:20

4 days ago58:20

58:20

President Trump wants higher tariffs, and he also wants more industrial production in the United States. This we know. In the meantime, a coterie of economists and pundits have tried to assemble a larger intellectual architecture to explain that strategy in a coherent way. The story they tell is one where America gets paid by its allies for national security and access to American markets, while the US brings down its debt and deficits, and weakens the dollar, so as to make US manufacturing more globally competitive. Whether Trump sees things this way himself, and whether it will actually work is an entirely separate question. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Jim Millstein, co-chair of Guggenheim Securities, about what he sees as the massive risks underway with this line of thinking. During his time in government, he was closely involved with the conservatorship arrangement of the GSEs, so we also talk about the possibility of re-privatizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Read more: Dalio Warns of US Debt Crisis ‘Heart Attack’ Within Three Years Wishful Thinking Won’t Solve the US Debt Crisis Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Odd Lots

1
Lots More With Charlie McElligott on the Sharp, Strange Selloff 25:42

7 days ago25:42

25:42

Last week, the US market sold off sharply. The S&P 500 fell as much as 3.6% on Monday alone, entering technical correction territory. Momentum trades were hit particularly hard and stocks that had been winners for years suddenly became losers, while ones that had been losers suddenly outperformed. Perhaps the strangest thing though, is that volatility didn't really surge as things sold off. The VIX — sometimes called Wall Street's "Fear Gauge" — went up, but it didn't even reach levels that we saw in 2024 or 2022. So what happened? And why was the selloff so short and kind of strange with the lack of vol? On this episode, we speak with Charlie McElligott, Nomura strategist, about what exactly has been happening. Read only: Hedge-Fund Momentum Bets Crater All at Once in Volatile Markets The S&P 500’s Meltdown Into a Correction Only Took 16 Days Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Odd Lots

1
The Great Jones Act Debate 33:55

8 days ago33:55

33:55

We finally did it. We finally did an episode on the Jones Act. For years on the podcast, we've been referencing this controversial law from 1920, which places restrictions on domestic port-to-port transport in the United States. But we had never actually done an episode on what it is, why it was created, and why people feel so fervently about either keeping or maintaining it. There are plenty of people who feel that this law is an inhibitor of US growth, because domestic water-based shipment of goods requires a US-flagged, US-crewed, and US-built vessel. And yet the law persists — for over a century now. At our live show in Washington DC, we spoked with the Cato Institute's Colin Grabow (who took the anti side) and the Transportation Institute's Sara Fuentes (who took the pro side). They explained their respective positions on questions of the economics and national security in a lively, heated (but polite) debate. Read more: Jones Act Descended From Centuries of Lazy Protectionism East Coast Gas Would Only Drop a Dime If Jones Act Lifted, Says JPMorgan Jones Act Ships Competitive for US Fuel Exports as Freight Soars Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Odd Lots

1
FTC Chief Andrew Ferguson on the Trump Vision for Antitrust 47:45

11 days ago47:45

47:45

When Donald Trump won in November, one of the things that Wall Street was excited about was an expected liberalization of merger rules. There was a popular view that under Chair Lina Khan, the Biden FTC was overly stringent about what deals it would let go through, and that the new administration would give the greenlight more often. But at least so far, reality hasn't proven to be so simple. There hasn't been a big merger wave yet. And, in fact, the FTC under new Chair Andrew Ferguson has decided to keep the merger guidelines that Khan put in place. So does this mean continuity? At a live episode of the podcast taped in Washington DC, we spoke with Ferguson about the Trump administration's vision for antitrust. He talked about his philosophy of keeping corporate power in check and the tests he's using to preserve a competitive environment. He also walked us through the long history of the FTC and the notion of consumer welfare, plus why he thinks a more expansive interpretation of the term (beyond just lower prices) is in keeping with the history of conservative legal thought. Read More: New DOJ Antitrust Chief Builds Team From Prior Administrations Trump’s FTC Moves Ahead With Broad Microsoft Antitrust Probe Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Odd Lots

1
The Original Prediction Market Was Betting on the Pope 41:02

14 days ago41:02

41:02

Prediction markets are everywhere nowadays. You can go online and bet on political outcomes, or the weather, or how long Taylor Swift will stay together with Travis Kelce. But prediction markets have a long history, and one of the earliest involved betting on who would be the next pope. In fact, Renaissance Romans gambled on everything from papal elections to whether a particular noblewoman would give birth to a boy or girl. So why was betting such a big thing in 1500s Italy? How did the papal prediction market actually work? And what can it tell us about prediction markets today? We speak to Ryan Isakow, the author of the No Dumb Ideas substack. Read More: A Live Experiment in Prediction Markets Prediction Markets Are a Thing Now Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Odd Lots

1
Is There an Extremely Simple Fix for Affordable Housing? 40:41

15 days ago40:41

40:41

Housing affordability remains one of the single greatest sources of economic stress. Even if inflation measures were to come down, the simple cost of shelter is a huge burden on a wide swathe of the population. Hardly anyone disagrees with the idea of increasing supply, but this is easier said than done. There isn't a lot of spare construction capacity and the political fights over liberalizing zoning are tedious and slow. On this episode, we speak with Kevin Erdmann, a senior affiliated scholar at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, who proposes a simple idea. He argues that after the Great Financial Crisis, regulators over-tightened lending standards, and in so doing, took out the entire "starter home" segment of the new housing market. He says that if Fannie and Freddie were to liberalize their lending standards, homebuilders would be incentivized to build more homes that cater to people with lower incomes and lower FICO scores, essentially re-creating a whole slice of the new home market that's disappeared over the last 15 years. Read More: US Homebuilders Face a Supply Chain Snarl From Tariff Battles US Mortgage Rates Decline to 6.88%, Lowest Level This Year Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Odd Lots

1
Cathie Wood on What Comes Next in AI and Big Tech 34:06

17 days ago34:06

34:06

Markets have been selling off, with shares of tech companies like Nvidia down almost 20% so far this year. But even before the recent selloff, DeepSeek rattled the AI market and sparked questions over how US platforms will compete and actually monetize their technology. Despite all these hurdles, some investors remain tech optimists. Cathie Wood, the founder, CEO and chief investment officer of ARK Investment Management, is one of the most prominent, with ARK's Innovation Fund heavily invested in companies like Tesla, Coinbase and Roku. In this conversation, recorded live on stage at Bloomberg Invest, we discuss Cathie's view of potential opportunities in the space, and why she's expecting the Trump administration to create a Reagan Era-esque "golden age" for investors. Read More: Cathie Wood Sees Trump Era as ‘Golden Age’ for Wall Street Cathie Wood May Have Lost $14 Billion. But She’s Interesting Odd Lots is coming to Washington, DC on March 12! Get your tickets for our Jones Act debate here. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Odd Lots

1
Here Comes the Booming Chinese Biotech Sector 43:28

18 days ago43:28

43:28

You’ve heard about Chinese EVs. You’ve heard about Chinese batteries and solar panels. And recently you learned that China is near the cutting edge of AI research. Here’s another category: biotech. In 2019, the Chinese share of molecules licensed to Big Pharma companies was 0%. In 2024, it’s now 31%. On this episode we speak with Tim Opler, a biotech industry investment banker at Stifel. He explains how this industry has taken off in such a short period of time. Among the factors he cites: a generation of Chinese research scientists working in the US who hit a ceiling in terms of promotion and thus went back home to start companies. It’s also far cheaper to run clinical trials in China, due to the structure of the healthcare system. We also talk about the broad history of the pharmaceutical industry, how it’s evolved, and what impact, if any, AI will have on drug discovery. Read More: Former J&J Scientist Bets on China Biotech Chinese Health Stocks Surge on DeepSeek Integration Potential Odd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets for our Jones Act debate here. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Odd Lots

1
Trump's NIH Cuts Send Shockwaves Through the Science World 44:09

20 days ago44:09

44:09

One of the first moves made by the Trump administration was to change the nature of grants made by the National Institutes of Health. Under the new policy, there's a 15% cap on "indirect costs" associated with a given grant. This is money that essentially pays for institutional overhead, not directly related to the new costs of the specific project itself. So how do NIH grants actually work? What are the direct and indirect costs? What is the effect that's already playing out? On this episode, we speak to Carole LaBonne, a biologist and researcher at Northwestern University, on what she's already seeing from the changes. Read more: Trump’s Science Agency Pick Says He Won’t Cut More Personnel The US Is Withdrawing From Global Health at a Dangerous Time Odd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets for our Jones Act debate here. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Odd Lots

1
We Just Saw Europe's Biggest Week in Decades 30:21

21 days ago30:21

30:21

This week was a busy one and some of the most interesting things that happened came out of Europe, where policymakers announced up to €800 billion of additional defense spending and an easing of Germany's stringent debt rules. All of this comes as Europe responds to tariff threats from the Trump administration, as well as worries that the Trans-Atlantic security alliance may be over. So how significant could these changes be? And what do they mean for things like the euro, the dollar, and the wider financial system? And what are the vibes in Germany like right now? On this episode, we speak with George Saravelos, head of currency research at Deutsche Bank, about this huge moment. Read more: EU Backs German Push to Look at Easing Fiscal Rules for Defense Trump Hails Tariffs as US Economy Barrels Into Trade Wars Odd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets for our Jones Act debate here. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Odd Lots

1
Eugene Fama and David Booth on the Birth of Modern Finance 49:19

22 days ago49:19

49:19

The 1970s were a pretty eventful time in markets. There was high inflation, the end of the gold standard, and a stock market crash. There was also a bunch of ideas coming out of the University of Chicago that would go on to be famous and highly influential for investors. Perhaps the most prominent is the Efficient Market Hypothesis, posited by Nobel Laureate Eugene Fama, which says that markets are right and it's useless for investors to try to outguess them. Fama later teamed up with David Booth, the founder of Dimensional Fund Advisors, and has been a longtime collaborator with the firm, which now has $777 billion under management. Today, they're releasing a documentary directed by Errol Morris and called " Tune Out the Noise ," which chronicles this important time. We speak to both of these investment legends about the development of their theories, how they put them into practice, subsequent criticism, and what comes next. Read more: Wall Street Math Wizards Are Decoding Private-Market Returns Upstarts Challenge a Foundation of Modern Investing Cliff Asness Says Markets Are Less Efficient — And Social Media May Be to Blame Odd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets for our Jones Act debate here. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Odd Lots

1
Ray Dalio on the Coming Crisis in US Debt 56:13

25 days ago56:13

56:13

Almost whichever way you measure it, the US has a lot of debt. And, with the Trump administration recently proposing a budget that would see US debt levels swell even further, it doesn't look like this issue is going away any time soon. In this episode, we speak with Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of the hedge fund Bridgewater Associates and the author of the new book, How Countries Go Broke . We talk about how he thinks about debt cycles, the catalyst for when high levels of debt become an immediate problem, what a debt crisis actually looks like, and what the US needs to do to avoid a "heart attack" debt crisis within the next three years. We also speak about what investors should do in these scenarios, including Ray's thoughts on things like Bitcoin and gold. And, of course, we also speak about his role in helping create the Chicken McNugget. Read more: The Stories We Tell Ourselves About Bonds ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ Chatter Is Getting Wall Street’s Attention Odd Lots is coming to Washington, DC! Get your tickets here. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.…

Odd Lots

1
Lots More on the Growing Risks to the US Labor Market 17:58

28 days ago17:58