Are Programmers Really To Blame For BAD Estimates?

Thriving Technologist

When programmers are forced to estimate code on software projects and they turn out wrong, who's to blame? Are there other reasons why estimating software development projects are so hard, that are outside the control of each programmer?

In this episode, I share some of the unique properties of estimating code, and why programming estimates are different than many other types of work. Most of it boils down to treating software development like manufacturing, which is a repeatable process that doesn't involve as much teamwork. Programming on the other hand, is usually done on a team. And to meet the commitment forecasted by our estimate, we need help from other developers.

There are also complexities to our work that make estimating increased the chance that things go bad that are a symptom of misunderstanding the nature of programming by project managers, product managers, and scrum masters at some companies. They need help from software developers to understand why the number of variables increases the chance that estimates turn out bad, and that the degree of things being wrong can have disastrous consequences for business commitments that relied on estimates.

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You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Chapter markers / timelinks:

(00:00) Introduction(01:19) 1. Why Programming Is Unreliable(01:26) 1.1 Not Repeatable(02:06) 1.2 Too Many Variables(02:50) 1.3 Surface Understanding(04:06) 1.4 Unique Integration(04:59) 1.5 Low Diagnostic Output(06:08) 1.6 Knowledge Work Mismatch(07:19) 1.7 Undervalued Teamwork(08:20) 2. Reduce Impact of Bad Estimates(08:42) 2.1 Reduce Estimated Work(10:06) 2.2 Keep Estimates With Estimators(11:26) 2.3 Estimate In Components(12:50) 2.4 Choose Familiar Technologies(13:56) 2.5 Find Native Integrations(15:04) 2.6 Stop Using Estimates(16:10) Episode Groove

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