Jeff Snider will guide you through the realm of monetary science. Multiple episodes uploaded each week, discussing big news and key current events, the state of markets and what they are telling you, as well as historical summaries and deep background material so that you can understand what’s really going on in this eurodollar’s world.
…
continue reading
Is the economy on the verge of a recession? Or a boom? Or something in between? What did that employment report really mean? Investors are faced with a blizzard of economic data, most of it hard to interpret. How do you know what really matters and what can safely be ignored? Every two weeks, Wall Street veteran Joe Calhoun cuts through the fog of statistics and zeroes in on the important reports and market indicators.
…
continue reading
Are you a good girl who’s ready to break the rules, have a little fun and create a new reality? Are you getting the feeling that there’s more to life and you’re ready to create the dreams you want? If this sounds like you, you’ve found your tribe! Welcome to The Get Up Girl podcast with Joanna Vargas, where we inspire you to live your fullest and most fun life! Every week Joanna will pour wisdom into you through her stories, tools, and fun radical candor. Joanna believes that when you ask be ...
…
continue reading
1
The Copper Gold Ratio is Sending a Massive Warning to the Economy (here's what that means)
18:05
18:05
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
18:05
In the midst of other major warnings, here comes another substantial one. Copper has moved way past its supply squeezed record high from just two months ago and is now crashing. At the same time, gold is reaching new heights. The copper to gold ratio therefore just dropped to its lowest since...November 2020. Taking a deeper look at what all this m…
…
continue reading
1
The Global Monetary System Is Reliant on Swap Spreads (and they are doing something big)
18:56
18:56
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
18:56
Swaps are of paramount importance to the financial world, priced by the very monetary system itself. As a consequence, swap market indications are even more critical than the yield curve. But what does it all mean, and how can you decipher what appear its confusing signals? A few minutes on some manageable basics and you're ready to read the market…
…
continue reading
1
We Need to Discuss the Yield Curve Immediately
17:36
17:36
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
17:36
Another part of the yield curve un-inverted, this time the short to long segment. Demonstrating the perpetual inability to make sense of it, mainstream sources are suggesting some "Trump trade" is behind this. No. Unequivocally no. The classic bull case is building and this is merely the latest nascent signal. It isn't complete yet, but incoming da…
…
continue reading
1
It's Over: China’s ENTIRE Economy Just Collapsed
20:09
20:09
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
20:09
It started Friday when China's central bank reported more than just new record low credit stats, the deterioration over the past few months has been astounding. That obviously spread to the Chinese economy which the government confirmed today with ugly data across-the-board, big miss in GDP and grim numbers on retail sales. Yet, everyone wants more…
…
continue reading
1
The Japanese Government Is Getting Desperate As The Yen Collapses
19:07
19:07
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
19:07
Why does the Japanese government keep intervening trying to prop up the yen, and why does it keep failing? This isn't just about the yen or Japan, nor is it completely a matter of what's unfolding right now. There is a deeper truth that needs to be made more widely which applies universally to monetary systems around the world. And the yen's crash …
…
continue reading
1
Inflation Report Reveals the Truth About the Economy
18:18
18:18
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
18:18
There was an unnoticed yet absolutely critical detail in the June CPI report that pointed to a lot more than just benign disinflation, a development that has only rarely been observed in decades of history. More disturbing still, the context behind this one is consistent with those few past instances including a few new pieces of subsequent informa…
…
continue reading
1
Bombshell CPI Report Shocks The Market (Here's What You Need To Know)
18:23
18:23
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
18:23
The June consumer price estimates at first seemed like good news. Two months in a row at low and now negative changes. But these past two months have shown a little more weakness than most had bargained for, instead so many of the details consistent with recession indications spilling out from all over the economy. No wonder bond yields dropped sha…
…
continue reading
1
You Won't Believe What's Happening in China
19:44
19:44
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
19:44
Chinese authorities are becoming increasingly desperate over their inability to stabilize any of the economy, banking system, or markets. CNY keeps going down, as does the economy. Banks in China aren't lending while dozens are now 'disappearing.' Safety/liquidity of government bonds makes perfect sense. Not to the PBOC which is going to be shortin…
…
continue reading
From 'strong and resilient' to 'uh oh' in a heartbeat. The unemployment rate has intruded itself on the soft landing narrative, forcing a near-total rethink of the situation all across the mainstream. Some major bank strategists are now calling for aggressive rate cuts from the Fed at the same time the yield curve is beginning to flash bull. Eurodo…
…
continue reading
1
Europe is Now In Full Blown Crisis Mode (what does this mean for the rest of the world?)
17:45
17:45
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
17:45
Political turmoil in Europe is very easy to understand. The European economy is supposed to be recovering from its unofficial recession, and yet the most recent data shows instead alarming (re)acceleration to the downside in a number of places. Realizing this means the path to clawing back some of the supply shock's price increases is disappearing,…
…
continue reading
Unemployment in the US is now steadily moving higher. The June 2024 employment report contained more substantial downward revisions, evidence more employers are cutting hours, and most concerning is another increase to the unemployment rate. And, contrary to many claims, it's not the "good" kind of rising unemployment. Eurodollar University's conve…
…
continue reading
1
Phase 2 of the Commercial Real Estate Collapse Has Begun
18:26
18:26
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
18:26
According to multiple recent reports, banks are very quietly selling out of CRE positions. Those reports are backed up by banking data which clearly shows an inflection in systemic loans in the space. Combined, we have strong evidence showing the second stage of the CRE bust has now started. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Reuters Bi…
…
continue reading
Modern economies have been moving in the direction of ledger money not for years or decades, for centuries. The world's current reserve currency, the eurodollar, merely represented the second stage in the evolutionary process. Now that it has surpassed its useful life, the door is wide open for the third stage which seems tailor-made for something …
…
continue reading
1
This Could Force the Fed to Cut Rates in July
19:18
19:18
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
19:18
Fed officials have repeatedly stated they are going to be patient before pivoting to rate cuts. But that would only be the case if the economy is actually strong and resilient. Should the labor market show signs of falling off dramatically, they'd cut their rates in a hurry. Today's macro data were filled with exactly those kinds of warning signs. …
…
continue reading
1
Recession Warning Signs You Need To Be Watching (w/ @EPBResearch )
23:09
23:09
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
23:09
If you want to watch the full interview check it out at https://www.eurodollar.university Everyone wants to know the answer to the recession question. So, by very popular demand, Eric Basmajian of EPB Macro Research checks in with Jeff on the unusual state and status of the US business cycle. The whole monumental matter just might come down to hous…
…
continue reading
1
China's Treasury Market Just Hit a Record Low
16:09
16:09
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
16:09
Government bond yields in China just plunged to more record lows as market agents are growing even more pessimistic. The unquenchable demand for safe and liquid assets has the PBOC getting ready to sell bonds into a marketplace that is increasingly concerned about a lot more than Chinese issues. More strong evidence for globally synchronized. Eurod…
…
continue reading
1
Oh Sh*t, GLOBAL Unemployment Is Rising (What does this lead to)
19:14
19:14
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
19:14
Soft landings and resilient economy supported by strength in labor markets. At least that's the narrative, the truth is completely different. Much of the developed world is being swept up in a wave of rising unemployment. Yes, including the US.;/ Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre Bank of Canada https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/…
…
continue reading
1
The Japanese Yen Is CRASHING (what this means for the world)
18:41
18:41
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
18:41
Another new low for JPY as the Japanese government is shuffling up its top Finance Ministry people. Everyone continues to blame the Fed for the yen's crash but the evidence conclusively shows that's not it. This only raises the question, what is it? The yen's own track record holds the answer and it is one that applies to you. Eurodollar University…
…
continue reading
1
Walgreens Warns: People Have Suddenly Stopped Coming
18:06
18:06
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
18:06
Retail and Pharmacy giant Walgreens now says there won't be a second half rebound after all, not according to its view of the consumer economy. It was seconded by Levi's and then European behemoth H&M. All of that ties together with a record low in US pending home sales and a summer driving season that's already an enormous bust as recession forces…
…
continue reading
1
You Won't Believe What China's Central Bank Is Doing
20:25
20:25
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
20:25
China's top central banker confirmed last week the intention to radically change the operations of the Peoples' Bank of China. Some have speculated this equates to an imminent QE, but that has nothing to do with the reform. We've seen this before. The issue is bank, not central bank. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis BNP Implications o…
…
continue reading
1
Primary Dealer Banks Showing Signs Of Global Collateral Tightening
18:38
18:38
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
18:38
There have been a whole bunch of ripples through the monetary system coming in from all angles pointing toward a sizable collateral disruption. The primary culprit(s) appears to be from Europe, starting in bond spreads surging off election uncertainty though we can't discount the ECB's rate cut as a factor. The eurodollar aftershocks are pronounced…
…
continue reading
1
Japan is buying MASSIVE Amounts of Junk Credit
20:01
20:01
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
20:01
Japanese banks have been bulking up on US junk corporate credit for the last year, driven entirely by an increasingly difficult reach for yield. That means overlooking dangers and risks which in other less distorted times would have been taken more seriously. The end result is a large and growing distortion in a key part of the credit markets. Euro…
…
continue reading
1
Copper's Latest Move Has The Market Freaking Out
18:53
18:53
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
18:53
Copper and aluminum were soaring and so were reflation expectations for the global economy. If the world wasn't too careful, those might even lead to resurgent inflation. What's happening in those and other commodities has shocked market observers. As has the most recent global macro data. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre http…
…
continue reading
1
Oh Sh*t, AAA Debt Is Starting to Fail Again...
19:47
19:47
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
19:47
Another CRE securitized structure is reportedly causing losses for its top tier, this one in another country and from a different corner of the real estate market. This matches recent reports that big banks are quietly beginning to sell their seniors in the space. Moreover, US homebuilder activity has plunged to new lows as the crosscurrents in the…
…
continue reading
1
You Won’t Believe What the Swiss Central Bank Just Did
18:20
18:20
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
18:20
The Swiss National Bank surprised Economists by cutting rates for the second time in a row. Citing a number of potential worries starting with more recession, the rate cuts are aligned with growing dollar troubles roiling the rest of the world. Major currencies are sinking fast, hitting new lows and pointing toward the same reasoning just acted on …
…
continue reading
1
MAJOR Bank Makes Announcement to Sell Billions in Treasuries
20:09
20:09
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
20:09
A Japanese bank giant announced it was going to begin selling tens of BILLIONS in USTs and other European government bonds knowing full well the institution is going to take huge losses on the sales. Is this the start of another bank run? Will this kill the Treasury market? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis About Norinchukin Bank https…
…
continue reading
1
New Data is Screaming a Full Blown Recession is Confirmed
15:57
15:57
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
15:57
The data continues to pour in showing US consumers have indeed hit the wall. Spending is down according to a variety of sources, including the latest update on retail sales for May. There is also a growing body of evidence indicating there is more weakness to come starting with summer vacations. All this indicates the chances of full-blown recessio…
…
continue reading
1
Americans Confidence in the Economy is Declining RAPIDLY
19:33
19:33
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
19:33
Consumer confidence has dropped sharply over the past few months as Americans are now more concerned about jobs and incomes than prices. The shift has been so pronounced that even members of the mainstream media are questioning FOMC officials. Hardly strong and resilient, there's rising unemployment and declining confidence mixed with a bevy corpor…
…
continue reading
1
China's Housing Market is Starting to Crack Rapidly (What You Need To Know)
19:06
19:06
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
19:06
Housing prices in China plunged in May, accelerating sharply after April's big drop indicating the situation in the real estate market is getting closer to becoming disorderly. There will be fallout across the world should that happen, as there already is across China's economy as the latest data also showed. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro A…
…
continue reading
1
This is the WORST Case Scenario for the Global Economy (dollar up, rates down)
18:39
18:39
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
18:39
Conventional 'wisdom' says that when US$ interest rates go down the dollar goes down with them. Yet, it hasn't been uncommon to find Treasury yields falling as the dollar's exchange value jumps. When that has happened, nothing good comes from it. We're starting to see what looks to be that scenario setting up right now. Eurodollar University's Mone…
…
continue reading
Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months. Sign up below: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates I said the payroll number is wrong and Jay Powell of all people agrees. But if the real question is how wrong, that's where the debate is even though it should already be settled. There i…
…
continue reading
1
Walgreens Sends Stark Warning About Consumer Behavior (Confirming CPI)
18:11
18:11
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
18:11
Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months. Sign up below: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates Walgreens is the latest Big Name to cut prices because Americans have run out of money. As the company's prices go down, those will add even more to the disinflationary environment; and t…
…
continue reading
1
Did Europe Just Cut Rates to Rig the Election (is the fed next?!)
18:38
18:38
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
18:38
Last week's ECB rate cut was...odd. Sure, officials had said for months they were going to do it. Yet, the conditions that would have to be met were not. Policymakers went ahead anyway and this past weekend's developments are a big Big Picture reason why. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Italy’s Tajani Calls for Quick Second…
…
continue reading
1
This Only Happens When We Are Currently in a Recession
19:23
19:23
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
19:23
Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months. Sign up below: https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates Consumer credit has historically been a solid recession signal, particularly how consumers alter their usage of credit cards. Some of that by choice, for many it is the bank's. Either way…
…
continue reading
Roaring Kitty is not the problem, nor is Gamestop the company and its stock. All are symptoms of a degraded model that increasingly rewards all the wrong behaviors. Stocks have become lottery tickets, the pie-in-the-sky way out for way too many Americans otherwise trapped in a real economy that continues to leave them behind - as the latest employm…
…
continue reading
This has never happened before. Sure, the payroll data and CPS series have diverged before but this is something entirely new. The fact that it runs contrary to decades of history makes our determination rather easy and simple: the labor market noose is tightening. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Big US Job Gains Is Out of …
…
continue reading
1
European Central Bank Just Cut Rates! (Everything You Need To Know)
19:33
19:33
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
19:33
After two years unequivocally stating "inflation" was the world's biggest threat and crisis, and that nothing short of full victory would suffice, now all of a sudden Europe (and Canada) is changing it up, cutting rates even as price estimates remain well short of their standard while also appearing to be stuck that way. What is really going on her…
…
continue reading
More labor market cracks are showing and expanding. Even some of the data which has been resilient may have to be substantially changed given new information that just came to light. Labor weakness continues to clear out the FOMC setting the Treasury market up the next rally - though it isn't quite there yet. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro A…
…
continue reading
1
This is a REALLY Bad Sign For the Economy
18:40
18:40
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
18:40
As more weak data pours in on the US economy, the more clarity it offers on the future path of ST interest rates. As that clears up, market rates are moving lower. But why? Mainstream theory demands we consider rates as entirely supply or demand factors (like QE). Yet, the past couple years have thoroughly disproven the idea. Rates are going lower …
…
continue reading
1
This ONLY happens When Sh*t is Hitting The Fan
19:00
19:00
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
19:00
A rare warning strikes the gasoline market in another confirmation of economic weakness, one primary factor which forced OPEC this past weekend to extend its production restrictions. On top of those, big changes to US income estimates further corroborating the deterioration, as did a surprise drop in one of the more critical sentiment signals. Euro…
…
continue reading
1
GDP Revised Sharply Lower – Here’s What That Means
18:55
18:55
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
18:55
Weak economic results continue to roll in, matching other sources of information about the US economy. From the Federal Reserve's own account and data to more corporate reports. They all have one thing - and one word - in common. GDP revisions plus the first update on the state of GDI and its bigtime mismatch. Eurodollar University's conversation w…
…
continue reading
Tensions are rising. Aggressive actions are becoming commonplace. This isn't just sabre-rattling and posturing as war is a real possibility. It's not difficult to see why, at least what some of the motivation is. China's central bank is publicly discussing even more highly unusual steps to try to reign in the unfolding financial and economic backla…
…
continue reading
1
Sales Force Issues Stark Warning to Businesses
17:50
17:50
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
17:50
More corporate mayhem brought on by the "uncertain market environment." Stocks of both Salesforce and Kohl's were hammered today as each company demonstrates in their own way just what the updated GDP numbers suggest. That latter data report also includes GDI which is almost certainly closer to the real economy all these other sources are projectin…
…
continue reading
1
Commercial Real Estate Bust Hits Europe (BADLY)
17:57
17:57
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
17:57
More CRE developments today and last week this time with a focus on Europe. New reports indicate losses are coming soon and data from the ECB shows why there are so many concerns. We also have the latest bank lending figures which show more troubling signs under the cover of 'extend and pretend.' Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ECB C…
…
continue reading
1
“Buy Now Pay Later” Issues Stark Warning to the Economy
17:52
17:52
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
17:52
More data released today which shows the US economy has taken a turn for the worse. Consumers are running out of options and are turning in huge proportions to alternate means to stay afloat. One of those alternatives, however, is being closed off as the American banks are now actively cutting back risk while going on a buying binge for safety. Eur…
…
continue reading
What's misinformation about the economy? It's a well-known fact policymakers and Economists outright lie about any situation. But why? They say it's for your own good. The lies are beginning to pile up so much that officials now have to lie about their lies, including the very theory behind all of this especially when some of the theoreticians who …
…
continue reading
It doesn't help that policymakers and Economists quite openly admit they will and even should lie to you about the state of the economy. But to go so far as to call legitimate and widely-shared criticism misinformation is taking this too far. The reason it is going this way is just how difficult the situation has become, which brings us back to the…
…
continue reading
1
Oh Sh*t, Commercial Real Estate CLO Loans Are Collapsing
19:06
19:06
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
19:06
After months of silence, a couple of critical developments from the beleaguered commercial real estate sector show up all at once. For the first time since the Global not-Financial Crisis, a senior tranche of a CLO took losses - a lot of losses - while redemptions threaten to force liquidations at one of the spaces more important CRE funds. Not goo…
…
continue reading
1
China's Latest Move Has Governments Freaking Out
18:44
18:44
Play later
Play later
Lists
Like
Liked
18:44
On top of dumping Treasuries (which I covered in detail in a previous video https://youtu.be/j00_S1iug9c), China's also dumping its excess production on the rest of the world. The tactic has become so pervasive governments worldwide are responding with more than idle threats. But what are they really worried about given this means cheaper stuff and…
…
continue reading
The retail giant's latest earnings report confirmed...well, pretty much everything. Inflation risks, consumer capacities, the direction of interest rates and more. Target's results help setting the debate on prices while also dovetailing right in with a whole bunch of the latest figures on especially gasoline and even rents. Eurodollar University's…
…
continue reading